CityHeart Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 With 10 games to go, thought it might be good to analyse the run home of the contenders for the premier plate. The draw is not even (in relation to when you play), so there are some quirks and frankly I think we have had probably the hardest draw to date, and thus one of the easier run homes. I know it means nothing, but we are still in a great position. Our remaining fixtures: @ Newcastle Victory CC Mariners @ Wellington Sydney @ Adelaide Brisbane Wellington @ Perth Adelaide As we are the only team to have played WSW 3 times, we dont play them again. 6 of our last 10 games are at home, with 3 of our last 4 at home. We do not have a remaining away game to a top half of the table team - and only have 3 remaining games against top half teams. WSW: are still to play Victory twice. They have away trips to Sydney, Brisbane and Victards. Well placed, but a few banana skins there. Victards: are still to play Roar and WSW twice. Have had a fairly easy draw thus far and thus the hardest run home on paper - still to play 6 top half teams in remaining 10 (twice the number of us) and still have a trip to Wellington. Sure, Nux are bad - but the problem for the tards is they have trips to nux and Brisbane immediately next to Asian CL games. Ie the play the nux on a saturday, then are playing in South Korea on the Wednesday. Id say if they lose to habibs this week - you can nearly rule them out. Ben Kafalah will miss this game if not more. Roar: Still to play Victory twice, and 5 of last 10 against top half teams. Have long trips to perth and adelaide. Not a horrible run home, but not sure exactly where to place this mob. Sydney: Not a bad a-league run home, 4 of last 10 against top half teams but like Victory, have Asian CL issues. Big games against Victory and City on either side of Guangzhou Evergrande. Play Habibs on a Sat, then are in Japan on the Wed. Not sure this dour mob is good enough anyway, but will struggle to handle both competitions. Form of Perth, Adelaide and Mariners to be observed. Seem to be having resurgences, but time will tell. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw1739 Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 I've given up counting chickens. With Kisnorbo and Chapman out and Franjic and Hughes short of match fitness and pace we could easily ship a bagful of goals in these remaining matches. We are relying completely on Fornaroli, Novillo and Mooy to somehow produce goals at the other end. Too early to call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFC-FAN Posted January 30, 2016 Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 All well and good, but we have no defenders and JVS is still our coach... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CityHeart Posted January 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2016 Right, but Im not counting chickens. These are the facts of the run home. Not saying we are gonna win it - WSW just have to be favourites for now. But, the schedule is what it is - but the way you handle it is what will determine the premier. Look at this weekend - all of the 4 teams on short weeks including us, got hammered with goals against and were pretty switched off for periods of their games and all lost. Sometimes you have to pick your battles - i know hindsight is 20-20, but on 4 days going to wsw, and with the above draw, that was not a MUST win, we should have played a style which would have suited our 4 day break, and a draw was a good result. Squad rotation plays a part. With a fit squad on adequate breaks, the time to catch them is upcoming, it wasnt last week. Look at all the big european leagues - winning titles especailly with european games is probably as much about squad rotation and management than it is best 11 at their peak. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSK_47 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 All those games are very winnable. As have been a lot of the games we have dropped points, so who knows. One or two injuries and or entire system crumbles (if counting on a few individual players to get us out of the shit can be called a system). One thing is for sure, its going to be a very interesting conclusion to the regular season . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neio Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I know it's dangerous but I'm giving us 20 more points giving us 48 the best goal difference and a top 2 spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morphine Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 4 hours ago, CityHeart said: Right, but Im not counting chickens. These are the facts of the run home. Not saying we are gonna win it - WSW just have to be favourites for now. But, the schedule is what it is - but the way you handle it is what will determine the premier. Look at this weekend - all of the 4 teams on short weeks including us, got hammered with goals against and were pretty switched off for periods of their games and all lost. Sometimes you have to pick your battles - i know hindsight is 20-20, but on 4 days going to wsw, and with the above draw, that was not a MUST win, we should have played a style which would have suited our 4 day break, and a draw was a good result. Squad rotation plays a part. With a fit squad on adequate breaks, the time to catch them is upcoming, it wasnt last week. Look at all the big european leagues - winning titles especailly with european games is probably as much about squad rotation and management than it is best 11 at their peak. I honestly don't believe that a draw is ever a good result. Ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw1739 Posted February 5, 2016 Report Share Posted February 5, 2016 On 1/31/2016 at 1:27 PM, KSK_47 said: All those games are very winnable. As have been a lot of the games we have dropped points, so who knows. One or two injuries and or entire system crumbles (if counting on a few individual players to get us out of the shit can be called a system). One thing is for sure, its going to be a very interesting conclusion to the regular season . Agreed. Very difficult to predict anything at this stage of the season, with just six points separating six teams, and four teams on 27-28 points. Changes during the transfer window, injuries, accumulation of yellow cards, weather conditions in high summer, the ACL - a whole lot of factors come into play here. My view is that you have to go out and field the best team possible for every game and get the best result possible. A point here, a goal there, can make all the difference when it comes to the finals. It still upsets me to hear - I think it was Franjic saying it - that WSW "wanted it more" in the recent 3-4 loss to them. Attitudes like that are not helpful to our chances. Arithmetically, no team is yet out of the finals series. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartOfCity Posted February 6, 2016 Report Share Posted February 6, 2016 I think we should EXPECT to do really well on the run home. FFS we have 3 starting socceroos in our line up now, zullo is starting to show heaps, the big Dane making great saves each week, I think if we can get melling on the park playing the same hungry midfield dog like last year we'll do really well. Not to mention the blokes that play in the front 3rd. If we can't smashing teams with this arguably best list in the league then JVS must go. Putting aside the defensive issues (of which I think he created) the tittle has been handed to him on a platter. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jovan Posted February 6, 2016 Report Share Posted February 6, 2016 44 minutes ago, HeartOfCity said: I think we should EXPECT to do really well on the run home. FFS we have 3 starting socceroos in our line up now, zullo is starting to show heaps, the big Dane making great saves each week, I think if we can get melling on the park playing the same hungry midfield dog like last year we'll do really well. Not to mention the blokes that play in the front 3rd. If we can't smashing teams with this arguably best list in the league then JVS must go. Putting aside the defensive issues (of which I think he created) the tittle has been handed to him on a platter. Top post especially for a sunny Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr lime Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Given that we seem to have the easiest run home on paper, that probably guarantees that we'll stuff up. But I'm hopeful that we have some harder nuts with a stronger mentality playing now, so will be more consistent, although Kisnorbo missing is tough. If we can beat Newcastle today I think we will do well, but I am very worried that the Jets will be a banana skin that sees us slip into a slump. The glass is always half empty for me where we are concerned I'm afraid.... fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr lime Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just spotted that Kisnorbo is listed in the squad. I thought he had a calf and would miss weeks. if not, that is a plus, will be interesting to see if he plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shahanga Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 1 hour ago, dr lime said: Just spotted that Kisnorbo is listed in the squad. I thought he had a calf and would miss weeks. if not, that is a plus, will be interesting to see if he plays. It was his Achilles. Not snapped, just minor. Earlier in the week rated an outside chance to play. I assumed if he wasn't considered OK he wouldn't go to Newcastle. Now whether that squad they named is accurate is another question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw1739 Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, Shahanga said: It was his Achilles. Not snapped, just minor. Earlier in the week rated an outside chance to play. I assumed if he wasn't considered OK he wouldn't go to Newcastle. Now whether that squad they named is accurate is another question. He's starting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possiblygeorge Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, jw1739 said: He's starting. If it was the Achilles he injured years ago I wouldn't be surprised if he heard some scar tissue crack and thought it was much worse than it was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 33 minutes ago, possiblygeorge said: No offence dude, but your banter is awful 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possiblygeorge Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just now, bt50 said: No offence dude, but your banter is awful I haven't slept for over 24+ hours, give me a spell lol, been out all night watching Premier League and decided not to sleep to stay awake for this game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hakz7 Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, possiblygeorge said: I haven't slept for over 24+ hours, give me a spell lol, been out all night watching Premier League and decided not to sleep to stay awake for this game The PL games finished at 6.30, you could have slept 11 hours lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
possiblygeorge Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just now, hakz7 said: The PL games finished at 6.30, you could have slept 11 hours lol. Had to run around and get other stuff done haha, sounds ridiculous, but i'm wrecked and just want this game to finish already haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjake1234 Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 (edited) On paper we have the best team (or close to it) but at no time before or during a game have I felt that we were a clear winner. This game in Newcastle just highlights our inability to dominate games, to give away the ball cheaply and ship cheap goals. The only reason we are where we are is down to our front three. To me it smacks of a lack of belief and team cohesion - which is a problem with the coach. I just don't see us going anywhere with him. The only salvation is Bruno stays one goal ahead of that "B" Edited February 7, 2016 by mjake1234 Add Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr lime Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 6 hours ago, dr lime said: Given that we seem to have the easiest run home on paper, that probably guarantees that we'll stuff up. But I'm hopeful that we have some harder nuts with a stronger mentality playing now, so will be more consistent, although Kisnorbo missing is tough. If we can beat Newcastle today I think we will do well, but I am very worried that the Jets will be a banana skin that sees us slip into a slump. The glass is always half empty for me where we are concerned I'm afraid.... fingers crossed. I wish I was at least a bit surprised.... sigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cityamatic Posted February 7, 2016 Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Easiest run on paper means nothing with this club. If things go badly against us next week (which looking at the fixtures is a distinct possibility) we can be sixth by the end of the round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CityHeart Posted February 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2016 Goes without saying - a very disappointing result, in a week which it generally went well for us. 'Only' fell back 1 point, but it was 3 points lost no doubt. We seem to hit the road with players in dreamland and become very lazy. The only good thing is that we have lost 2, but both were away so we have 6 of our remaining 9 games at home. This includes this week, which is a must win game all of a sudden! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harrison Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 If this form slump is going to continue, just making the top six might prove to be a challenge. Perth are unbeaten in four and will most likely keep the pressure on the top six. Even Newcastle could realistically make the top six. The derby is important for us to keep our spot. A loss now could be bad for confidence and then we might actually have to dig deep, which has never been a strength of our club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviant Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 get your shovel ready. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n i k o Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 (edited) 8 games left. 24 points up for grabs. The last 5 seasons has seen the winner accumulate 50+ points. We're on 29. Assuming the winning team get to around 50 points we would need 20/21 of 24 points to get to that. That's 7 out of 8 wins (50) or 6 wins and 2 draws (49). If Brisbane win 4 or more of their last 8 games we're in trouble (which would put them on 47 + any draws). WSW are a point behind Brisbane so same scenario but a point difference. Adelaide are a point ahead but we play them twice so they'll be huge games and we need to win at least 1 of those if not both games to shut them out. Sydney and victory are in the same position as us + ACL games Perth is the dark horse that could push any one of us, Sydney, victory or Adelaide out of the top six depending on their run in. Its possible only if Brisbane and WSW totally capitulate on their run home and win only 3 of 8 games at best. So mathematically the chances of winning the league this season are extremely slim. We need to win big (at least 6 games) and hope the top 2 fail spectacularly. What is up for grabs is our first spot in the ACL. We have 5 out of 8 home games so if we can win 5 of our last 8 games (including at least 1 of those against Adelaide) then we're in with a good shot of landing that third position. Or possible even second. Edited February 16, 2016 by n i k o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looking at the way the draw pans out for everyone else, and given there is no dominant side, I think 20 points would nab us the title, if nothing else other than goal difference. Still that's a big ask, particularly with trips to Adelaide and Perth, however its achievable. Realistically second will be the aim to give ourselves the best chance of winning the gf, probably still need 18 points to get there. Personally I think Sydney will miss out with ACL coming up, not to mention their awful form. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisphantomfortress Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 (edited) 22 minutes ago, bt50 said: Looking at the way the draw pans out for everyone else, and given there is no dominant side, I think 20 points would nab us the title, if nothing else other than goal difference. Still that's a big ask, particularly with trips to Adelaide and Perth, however its achievable. Realistically second will be the aim to give ourselves the best chance of winning the gf, probably still need 18 points to get there. Personally I think Sydney will miss out with ACL coming up, not to mention their awful form. ACL is gunna make a big difference and i can see Sydney and Victory having issues in games following champions league trips. Edited February 16, 2016 by thisphantomfortress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewConvert Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, thisphantomfortress said: ACL is gunna make a big difference and i can see Adelaide, Sydney and Victory having issues in games following champions league trips. Adelaie are out of the ACL. Only victory and Sydney remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisphantomfortress Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 1 minute ago, NewConvert said: Adelaie are out of the ACL. Only victory and Sydney remain. My bad haha edited Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw1739 Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 IMO it's virtually impossible to predict where the clubs will finish. Our problem is that clubs that looked easybeats a few weeks ago - Adelaide and Perth - have a lot of momentum going into the final weeks . We have won only two matches since Christmas, and in fact are leaking goals more often in recent games than in the first half of the season (17 in 11 matches up to Christmas and 18 in the 8 after Christmas). On a pro-rata basis we should finish on 41 points, probably not enough to finish in the top four. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
japiedog Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 if we don't get 3 points this Sunday, any chance of a home final will be tough going as JW says above , almost impossible to predict , we could not even make the finals, if we have a bad trot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jovan Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 1 hour ago, jw1739 said: IMO it's virtually impossible to predict where the clubs will finish. Our problem is that clubs that looked easybeats a few weeks ago - Adelaide and Perth - have a lot of momentum going into the final weeks . We have won only two matches since Christmas, and in fact are leaking goals more often in recent games than in the first half of the season (17 in 11 matches up to Christmas and 18 in the 8 after Christmas). On a pro-rata basis we should finish on 41 points, probably not enough to finish in the top four. Disagree. We are definitely going to win 4 of the 8. We are basically following the tried and true 33.333333 % win ratio that has actually increased to closer to 50% due soley to mooy Fornaroli and Sorensen. So lock in 4 wins and a 6th finish on goal difference with a loss in the first week of finals. Love for it to be not true but ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red or Dead Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 Victory to miss out on the top 6 by 1 point only to blame last week's Derby game for not counting Gui Finkler's free-kick as a goal! ...and that will be the sweetest day of the season...only to be replaced by us winning the Championship three weeks later, of course! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyboozeadams Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 brisbane should start to struggle. they have a tough run in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 perfect round for us this week, at home to ccm while, victory play adelaide sydney play wsw perth play brisbane (newcastle wellington doesn't matter) we win and we gain points on atleast 3 rivals, drop points and it's just another jvs season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CityHeart Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Good to get a win, and the table is showing the fruits of the harder runs for other teams (plus a major upset with WSW last week). This week totally opens up the race for us. We just MUST beat the nux, no iffs or buts obviously. Then: WSW v Perth; Adelaide v Brisbane; Visitors v Sydney and the week after the Roar hosting WSW. Champions league will start having its effect form this week, compromising Syd and the Visitors who (amazingly) all of a sudden are fighting for finals contention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n i k o Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 It'd be great, come last round, that both us and Adelaide are sitting in the top two spots where that final match when we play them decides the top spot. Lock it in, Friday night game,15k+ crowd, top tier open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playmaker Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 So happy we have no other commitments other than the A league, Smurfs and tards will start feeling it especially with their lack of depth. On the flip side they can possibly play themselves into form, lets hope not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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