The Run Home

[SF33]

27 minutes ago, n i k o said:

It'd be great, come last round, that both us and Adelaide are sitting in the top two spots where that final match when we play them decides the top spot. Lock it in, Friday night game,15k+ crowd, top tier open.

Something like that would be the making of the club.

[bellydrum]

7 to go. It looks like it will not be as easy as predicted now that Adelaide and Perth are in good form.

My green line predictions:

@ Wellington - Win

Sydney - Win

@ Adelaide - Lose

Brisbane - Win

Wellington - Win

@ Perth - Lose

Adelaide - Win

Edited February 23, 2016 by bellydrum

[Jovan]

19 minutes ago, bellydrum said:

7 to go. It looks like it will not be as easy as predicted now that Adelaide and Perth are in good form.

My green line predictions:

@ Wellington - Win

Sydney - Win

@ Adelaide - Lose

Brisbane - Win

Wellington - Win

@ Perth - Lose

Adelaide - Win

I Think the Sydney game draw, and Adelaide last game loss but the rest as is.

so 3 wins 1 Draw and 3 losses. 10 points.

 

[NewConvert]

I'm taking it one week at a time. City to defeat WP.

[Jovan]

2 minutes ago, NewConvert said:

I'm taking it one week at a time. City to defeat WP.

You playing?

Where is the fun in that. Isn't much better to sit back and make unwarranted statements that change depending on the score. 

[jw1739]

So, 21 matches gone and 32 points on the board, suggesting a final tally of 41 points on a proportional basis.
Six matches remaining, four at home and two away. We have taken 4 points out of the past 15, suggesting perhaps 5 points out of the remaining 18, giving a final tally of 37 points.
I can't see us winning the two remaining away games, and if we win the remaining home matches that will be 12 points for a final tally of 44 points.

History suggests we will require 42 points for a top four finish and a home final. I am predicting that we will finish somewhere between 3rd and 8th, most likely between 4th and 7th, and therefore almost no improvement (if any) over last season.

[MHFC-FAN]

19 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

So, 21 matches gone and 32 points on the board, suggesting a final tally of 41 points on a proportional basis.
Six matches remaining, four at home and two away. We have taken 4 points out of the past 15, suggesting perhaps 5 points out of the remaining 18, giving a final tally of 37 points.
I can't see us winning the two remaining away games, and if we win the remaining home matches that will be 12 points for a final tally of 44 points.

History suggests we will require 42 points for a top four finish and a home final. I am predicting that we will finish somewhere between 3rd and 8th, most likely between 4th and 7th, and therefore almost no improvement (if any) over last season.

Yes, and what is the common denominator in all these seasons? JVS and his amazing 34% winning percentage...

[HOLLYWOOD]

1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

I am predicting that we will finish somewhere between 3rd and 8th, most likely between 4th and 7th, and therefore almost no improvement (if any) over last season.

Basically this is what it comes down to.

Almost completely different squad (far better) than last years and yet we're no better off.

Manager has to go.

[jw1739]

After Newcastle's win today we are 6 points from 1st, but only 6 points from 8th.

[japiedog]

Said it before , nothing is more important then the next match, every game is 3 points be it v top or bottom

Here I was thinking, at least a home final this season

with the shite we have served up the last few weeks, I'll be surprised if we make the finals

Needless to say if JVS can't pull a rabbit from the hat and get top 3 he is gone, and to be honest I want him gone

How many more non appearances from this squad can we take.

I've been here with Heart/ City pretty much from the start, and on paper this is by far the best squad we have had , so what gives that we can outplay and beat anyone and then look so shitful against a team like Newcastle etc

 

[rass]

We'll play finals this year only because there are teams around us playing even worse. I.e. Roar, tards and shitney. 

[Jacques Le Cube]

We have now only won 3 of our last 10 games. Also, from memory, only 2 of our last 7 goals have been scored from open play.

[Jovan]

1 hour ago, Jacques Le Cube said:

We have now only won 3 of our last 10 games. Also, from memory, only 2 of our last 7 goals have been scored from open play.

Slump in full force. Surprised? 

[mattyh001]

On 26/02/2016 at 4:02 PM, HOLLYWOOD said:

Basically this is what it comes down to.

Almost completely different squad (far better) than last years and yet we're no better off.

Manager has to go.

Don't fully buy this view TBH in terms of the team not being better off.

We are three points short of the same points tally last season, with significantly better goal difference and six games to play. 

What has improved (and aligns with the season so far) is that City is capable of making a comeback when going down a couple of goals or retaking the lead / holding on against a strong second half opponent performance  (think the tards when we played them at AAMI park both times).  In the past when we conceded we were pretty much screwed.

What's actually disappointing is that for all improvement this season we are still not putting teams like Wellington and Newcastle to the sword on a consistent basis.

Edited February 29, 2016 by mattyh001

[SF33]

Adelaide (+4): MC (h), WS (a), CC (h), Syd (a), MC (a)

Wanderers (+3): NJ (a), AU (h), MV (a), CC (h), WP (h)

Brisbane (+3): MV (h), MC (a), Syd (h), NJ (h), MV (a)

Melbourne City: AU (a), BR (h), WP (h), PG (a), AU (h)

Victory (-2): BR (a), NJ (h), WS (h), WP (a), BR (h)

Sydney (-5): WP (h), CC (a), BR (a), AU (h), PG (a)

-------------------------------

Perth* (-7): NJ (h), CC (h), WP (a), NJ (a), MC (h), Syd (h)

Newcastle* (-9): PG (a), WS (h), MV (h), PG (h), CC (a)

Wellington (-13): Syd (a), PG (h), MC (a), MV (h), WS (a)

Central Coast (-23), PG (a) Syd (h), AU (a), WS (a), NJ (h)

 

Thoughts:

• If Adelaide wins the next two games (home against us and away against Wanderers, I think they'll go on to win the comp
• Perth looks to have the easiest run home - by far - and can't be written off as at least a home final chance. I expect them to end our Premiership hopes in Round 26.
• If Newcastle wins tomorrow, the Jets come into top six calculations

Thoughts for City

• Anything less than four points from the next two games will mean that the best we can realistically hope for is hanging on for a home knockout final in week 1.
• The last five games now look as tough as anyone else's in the league, with Adelaide's charge (play them twice), a trip to Perth and coming up against Brisbane as well. But that can be viewed as a positive, as well as a negative. Wanderers aside, our destiny is in our own hands (because, if we won all our remaining games, we would finish ahead of Brisbane and Adelaide)
• How do people feel about cheering Victory on in the last round (if it comes to that)?

[n i k o]

Simple enough, times running out. We can't afford to give up chances to get to the top like we did against both Newcastle and Wellington. There are no more chances. We need a huge run home. 

Edited March 6, 2016 by n i k o

[bt50]

Yeh imo winning the plate means winning all 5 games home. 

Top two will be crucial so we need to beat Brisbane and take at least 4 points from the Adelaide games at a minimum. Given the unpredictability of the comp at the minute any figure is pissing in the wind, but 10-11 points will go close to top two.

[Dylan]

We will finish 5th and face visitors in the first final and be kicked out because it will be played at Etihad. Will only beat Wellington in the last games

I've enjoyed this season due to the impact of mooy Fornaroli and Novillo. But you just watch us play and there is no organisation, no structure and we always rely on the individual qualities of key players to get us out of a mess.

Next season can't come fast enough. I feel like it will be the true start of the CFG era. New manager and will probable new cap exemptions to visa players. I'm very excited about that prospect. I just hope the new manager is here early or in fact already chosen and is watching tapes of the squad as we speak.

[Jovan]

43 minutes ago, Dylan said:

We will finish 5th and face visitors in the first final and be kicked out because it will be played at Etihad. Will only beat Wellington in the last games

I've enjoyed this season due to the impact of mooy Fornaroli and Novillo. But you just watch us play and there is no organisation, no structure and we always rely on the individual qualities of key players to get us out of a mess.

Next season can't come fast enough. I feel like it will be the true start of the CFG era. New manager and will probable new cap exemptions to visa players. I'm very excited about that prospect. I just hope the new manager is here early or in fact already chosen and is watching tapes of the squad as we speak.

Agree. 100%

[Alexxxandro]

4 hours ago, bt50 said:

Yeh imo winning the plate means winning all 5 games home. 

Top two will be crucial so we need to beat Brisbane and take at least 4 points from the Adelaide games at a minimum. Given the unpredictability of the comp at the minute any figure is pissing in the wind, but 10-11 points will go close to top two.

We make top two I will buy you your ticket to the first final. 100% Serious

 

 

[jw1739]

Four out of our remaining five matches are against top 6 teams, three of those against top 3 teams, and two of those against the current leaders. Huge ask.

[Red or Dead]

Predictions highlighted below - Loss, Draw, Win:

1. Adelaide (39pts) To play: City (H), Wanderers (A), Mariners (H), Sydney FC (A), City (A)  - End on 45pts (4th on goal diff)
2. Wanderers (38pts) To play: Jets (A), Adelaide (H), Victory (A), Mariners (H), Phoenix (A) - End on 49pts (1st)
3. Brisbane (38pts) To play: Victory (H), City (A), Sydney FC (H), Jets (H), Victory (A) - End on 48pts (2nd)
4. City (35pts) To play: Adelaide (A), Brisbane (H), Phoenix (H), Perth (A), Adelaide (H) - End on 45pts (3rd on goal diff)
5. Victory (33pts) To play: Brisbane (A), Jets (H), Wanderers (H), Phoenix (A), Brisbane (H) - End on 41pts (5th)
6. Glory (31pts) To play: Mariners (H), Phoenix (A), Jets (A), City (H), Sydney (A) - End on 42pts (6th)
7. Sydney FC (30pts) To play: Phoenix (H), Mariners (A), Roar (A), Adelaide (H), Perth (H) - End on 38pts (7th)
8. Jets (26pts) To play: Wanderers (H), Victory (A), Perth (H), Brisbane (A), Mariners (A) - End on 29pts (no one cares)

As much as Perth Vs Sydney in the last round is their "mini-final" our "mini-final" is this Friday! 

I have us winning our remaining 3 home games Vs Roar, Phoenix & Reds, but we must get a result this Friday in Adelaide since we can't win in Perth if our life depended on it! If we do finish 3rd we'll most likely avoid playing a home final against the tards at Etihad! If Brisbane falter then we may just finish 2nd, but I don't think there's any chance of getting the Premiers Plate with WSW arguably having the easiest last 5 games of the top 4 teams.

The only dark horse in this is Newcastle; they play 4 of the top 6 clubs so they can have a major influence on how the top 4 is shaped if they can take some points off them...unfortunately, they have Hoffman so nothing will come of it!  

[n i k o]

We're also very fortunate that the Australia v Tajikistan qualifier is on the 24th of March, with both our games either side of that being 4 days apart. Means we shouldn't lose Mooy to national duty. 

Edited March 8, 2016 by n i k o

[NewConvert]

56 minutes ago, n i k o said:

We're also very fortunate that the Australia v Tajikistan qualifier is on the 24th of March, with both our games either side of that being 4 days apart. Means we shouldn't lose Mooy to national duty. 

Doesn't Ange get them a week early for team training? Also, as much as I respect Mooy's engine that would be three games in 8 days.

[Dylan]

2 minutes ago, NewConvert said:

Doesn't Ange get them a week early for team training? Also, as much as I respect Mooy's engine that would be three games in 8 days.

He will miss Wellington which is great for us add wilkinson and franjic as well of course

Edited March 8, 2016 by Dylan

[n i k o]

3 minutes ago, NewConvert said:

Doesn't Ange get them a week early for team training? Also, as much as I respect Mooy's engine that would be three games in 8 days.

That might be right but I'm not sure

1 minute ago, Dylan said:

He will miss Wellington which is great for us add wilkinson and franjic as well of course

Unlikely. Wellington is four days after the qualifier. He'll play that one. 

[kingofhearts]

Surely the FFA knows these international dates well before they start planning the a-league season fixture? I still don't understand why they don't plan around it ffs, especially this season where everyone is so close, and having your top player or 2 out can be the difference from a home final to just scraping into the 6.

[n i k o]

7 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

Surely the FFA knows...

 

[NewConvert]

10 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

Surely the FFA knows these international dates well before they start planning the a-league season fixture? I still don't understand why they don't plan around it ffs, especially this season where everyone is so close, and having your top player or 2 out can be the difference from a home final to just scraping into the 6.

I have some sympathy for the FFA regarding the scheduling: there are way too many constraints to consider and they will never satisfy everyone. For starters if they give rests prior to or after the international dates the season extends way too much into the AFL/NRL/ARU season; then there would be the contractual obligations with Foxtel; then there are the Asian Champions League; and of course the FFA has no idea who would be available for selection and are selected by Ange when they make the draw; and I could go on.

[Jovan]

2 hours ago, NewConvert said:

I have some sympathy for the FFA regarding the scheduling: there are way too many constraints to consider and they will never satisfy everyone. For starters if they give rests prior to or after the international dates the season extends way too much into the AFL/NRL/ARU season; then there would be the contractual obligations with Foxtel; then there are the Asian Champions League; and of course the FFA has no idea who would be available for selection and are selected by Ange when they make the draw; and I could go on.

Zero sympathy it's there job to organise.  They should just follow worlds best practice and not this make up rules as you go. If there are national team dates then follow the international calendar. As far as worrying about the other codes that's pointless just do what's best for our code/League. 

[Deeming]

10 minutes ago, Jovan said:

Zero sympathy it's there job to organise.  They should just follow worlds best practice and not this make up rules as you go. If there are national team dates then follow the international calendar. As far as worrying about the other codes that's pointless just do what's best for our code/League. 

Yes. Also they had a say in the Foxtel deal. Could have said no. If they don't want to extend the season by a couple of weeks then have 2 rounds of midweek games. Look at the exposure the Big Bash got having a game on just about every night

[Jovan]

2 minutes ago, Deeming said:

Yes. Also they had a say in the Foxtel deal. Could have said no. If they don't want to extend the season by a couple of weeks then have 2 rounds of midweek games. Look at the exposure the Big Bash got having a game on just about every night

Big bash and NBL is a bigger threat than AFL or NRL. The FFA needs to pull it's finger out and start to implement some strategies to build the game in the next 2 or 3 seasons or soccer could drop from prominence over summer.

[NewConvert]

1 hour ago, Jovan said:

Zero sympathy it's there job to organise.  They should just follow worlds best practice and not this make up rules as you go. If there are national team dates then follow the international calendar. As far as worrying about the other codes that's pointless just do what's best for our code/League. 

According to FIFA rules the player needs to be released four days prior to the match including the day of the match and if in the same continent. So given that the match is on Thursday march 24, then the club can release the player on the night of Sunday 20th of March. As far as players being taken from the team CCM are not complaining - that is if you have players that are called up to the NT then it is an obligation for the club to release them if the team is playing on a FIFA set date.

Not sure what you mean by worlds best practice or making rules as you go. MV have had to release players regularly for NT duties over the years. MC have only just begun going down this path, notwithstanding the youth brigades. If MC is going to be a powerhouse in the A-League, then we better get used to having players released to NT duties and then having Asian Champions League matches in between the season.

If the FFA were to follow standard practice the A-League would run during the winter and we would not have so many issues with the qualifiers or the asian champions league. However, the A-League would then go head to head with the AFL and rugby codes.

[Jovan]

What I'm saying most proper leagues have breaks during international fixtures. We should do the same. 

[Luke]

3 hours ago, Jovan said:

What I'm saying most proper leagues have breaks during international fixtures. We should do the same. 

Messes with the league's schedule too much 

[jw1739]

14 minutes ago, Luke said:

Messes with the league's schedule too much 

It interferes with domestic leagues whichever way you do it. It is fairer to the clubs to have a break.

[Ray]

1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

It interferes with domestic leagues whichever way you do it. It is fairer to the clubs to have a break.

So that the other codes or sports can gain leverage on those weekends that there is no football?

[belaguttman]

5 hours ago, Jovan said:

What I'm saying most proper leagues have breaks during international fixtures. We should do the same. 

I agree, as more Socceroos and more internationals play in the League their absence will also interfere with the integrity of the competition. Just extend the season, take on AFL and NRL> We do need to solve the ground access issue though

[Luke]

3 hours ago, belaguttman said:

I agree, as more Socceroos and more internationals play in the League their absence will also interfere with the integrity of the competition. Just extend the season, take on AFL and NRL> We do need to solve the ground access issue though

More socceroos won't play in the A-league. I think you'll find it'll remain steady into the future 

[jw1739]

25 minutes ago, Luke said:

More socceroos won't play in the A-league. I think you'll find it'll remain steady into the future 

I agree. While we remain a rump competition of 10 clubs that operates for just six months per year our league will remain unattractive for players who are trying to build a career, especially those who are, or are on the fringes of being, representative players. Simply not enough exposure.

(We probably should move this discussion into the "Australian Football" sub-forum. It's really an "A-League discussion.")