Imtellingyou Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 Nice work. What statistics don't say is that Galekovic lost 9kg as result of working with Kalac. He still had to do a lot and well despite good Bart/Delbridge pairing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jovan Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Imtellingyou said: Nice work. What statistics don't say is that Galekovic lost 9kg as result of working with Kalac. He still had to do a lot and well despite good Bart/Delbridge pairing. 9kg is a lot of skinfolds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haz Posted January 3, 2019 Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Tommykins said: I've been lookig for a way to describe how well Eugene had played this year as a bit of a mea culpa , as I was definitely in the category of people who thought it was just a matter of time until Birighitti took his spot. I was very wrong. Nice work mate. Love seeing statistics! Fuck I have an exciting life 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 29 minutes ago, haz said: Nice work mate. Love seeing statistics! Fuck I have an exciting life Thanks mate. Have been meaning to do a bit more of this stuff but haven't had time, sadly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malloy Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Imtellingyou said: Nice work. What statistics don't say is that Galekovic lost 9kg as result of working with Kalac. He still had to do a lot and well despite good Bart/Delbridge pairing. You mean Joyce right? Kalac joined in mid June (IIRC) and EG was looking slim in our early preseason and cup games, which would be a very short time for a professional player to drop a huge amount of weight. This of course takes nothing away from Kalac who is an immense improvement on Joey D (who IMO is responsible for Redmayne progressively getting worse when he played for us). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw1739 Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, malloy said: You mean Joyce right? Kalac joined in mid June (IIRC) and EG was looking slim in our early preseason and cup games, which would be a very short time for a professional player to drop a huge amount of weight. This of course takes nothing away from Kalac who is an immense improvement on Joey D (who IMO is responsible for Redmayne progressively getting worse when he played for us). That's when it was announced. https://www.goal.com/en-au/news/the-covert-agent-zeljko-kalac-melbourne-city-aleague/xdorqdzu3q2t1741wj74mgw4w It may have been Van Stratten who got the weight off Galekovic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HughJass Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 37 minutes ago, malloy said: You mean Joyce right? I'm pretty sure Eugene himself said kalac told him to loose weight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shahanga Posted January 4, 2019 Report Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, HughJass said: I'm pretty sure Eugene himself said kalac told him to loose weight And Bozanicic left whinging that he couldn’t eat what he wanted anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 After another week of listening to people shout the ever imaginative "shoot farken" from the terrace, I thought I'd take a look and see how our team actually does compared to the rest of the league. The word I'm looking for here is "outlier" Basically there's three other groups of teams in the league at the moment. "On the break" teams - WEL, PER and ADL. Not particularly looking to play the ball around a heck of a lot in the final third, and don't get the ball into the box a hell of a lot, but do tend to score goals when they go forward (I have excluded CCM from here as they're trying their hardest but their hardest is still not very good). "Control" teams - MVC, SFC and NEW. All make a large number of passes in the final third per game and end up having a large number of balls played into the box and score a lot of goals, excluding Newcastle (semi-interestingly, Newcastle seem to plot with the good teams regardless depending on what metric you use to define that, but they just haven't got the results this year, Sunday was another example of this, even with 10 men they looked super dangerous for the second half against City) "Sooner the better" teams - BRI and WSW. Both tend to get the ball into the box a lot (more than any top 6 side), but don't actually score a lot, the antithesis to City. "Whatever the hell Melbourne City are doing" - Making more attacking third passes per game (by about 15 per game), but only CCM have fewer entries to the box per game than we do. Yikes. Melbourne City's monopoly on possession, but lack of penetration into the box is meant to lead to fewer chances, but considerably better chances. You can see how this works in theory, but in practice the front three hasn't been able to really make this come to fruition. This really sums it up for me - in terms of passes per shot, we're the highest, but not super far away from MVC, PER and SFC. But in terms of Passes per goal we have a much higher overall value. (I'm stuffing around with animations in statistics for work and just getting my head around the implementation, so sorry if you've all just got sick from this graphic) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haz Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Tommykins said: This really sums it up for me - in terms of passes per shot, we're the highest, but not super far away from MVC, PER and SFC. But in terms of Passes per goal we have a much higher overall value. (I'm stuffing around with animations in statistics for work and just getting my head around the implementation, so sorry if you've all just got sick from this graphic) Is that graph an animation of each round of the season so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n i k o Posted January 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, haz said: Is that graph an animation of each round of the season so far? I'd imagine it would be staggered animation if that was the case, unless each team continues to show the same pattern of passes per shot from game to game Edited January 6, 2019 by n i k o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haz Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, n i k o said: I'd imagine it would be staggered animation if that was the case, unless each team continues to show the same pattern of passes per shot Ah should have realised that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, haz said: Is that graph an animation of each round of the season so far? My bad - I was messing around to try and show that if you look at it from a 1D stand point (Just passes per shot) we're doing quite well, but if you put it into the context of passes per goal and passes per shot, we're fairly profligate in front of goal with possession. Just now, n i k o said: I'd imagine it would be staggered animation if that was the case, unless each team continues to show the same pattern of passes per shot Yep, unfortunately I don't have the game by game data - only the total statistics up to this point in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haz Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Tommykins said: My bad - I was messing around to try and show that if you look at it from a 1D stand point (Just passes per shot) we're doing quite well, but if you put it into the context of passes per goal and passes per shot, we're fairly profligate in front of goal with possession. Yep, unfortunately I don't have the game by game data - only the total statistics up to this point in the year. I think the HAL site should have game stats. If not the A-League Live app (3rd party) keeps good data for each game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, haz said: I think the HAL site should have game stats. If not the A-League Live app (3rd party) keeps good data for each game I like the stats collected here https://www.foxsports.com.au/football/a-league/stats/teams Unfortunately the A-League site and the A-League Live app don't quite have the same https://www.a-league.com.au/match/melbourne-city-fc-v-newcastle-jets-a-league-06-01-2019/1002880#!/stats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMSTEP123 Posted January 6, 2019 Report Share Posted January 6, 2019 Bloody great work from our stats man @Tommykins solid work bloke. Stats are a labour of love. I am a teacher and stats are my day to day go to. Football is also a stats game, though, as in teaching, only seeing the stats dehumanises the story. Can only tell us one part of it. Your insights are spot on mate, well done. Stats dont lie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw1739 Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, JMSTEP123 said: Bloody great work from our stats man @Tommykins solid work bloke. Stats are a labour of love. I am a teacher and stats are my day to day go to. Football is also a stats game, though, as in teaching, only seeing the stats dehumanises the story. Can only tell us one part of it. Your insights are spot on mate, well done. Stats dont lie Agree. Football is also about entertainment, excitement, passion, loyalty, love - a whole range of human emotions. And I don't think we're doing too well there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMSTEP123 Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, jw1739 said: Agree. Football is also about entertainment, excitement, passion, loyalty, love - a whole range of human emotions. And I don't think we're doing too well there. Not wrong. Something as simple as only seeing the outcome cannot allow you to infer how the game yesterday unfolded. Lacklustre to say the least in the 2nd half. Having said that, important 3 points if we are to make a stab at the top of the table come end of season. Even the Mooy era would have seen Newcastle score and equalise yesterday. I remember it quite clearly happening - losing from positions we should not have. I think this does indicate a positive cultural change in the club - a few more attacking and positive shots on goal would have not gone astray. We seemed extremely hesitatant knowing the threat from the counter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, JMSTEP123 said: Not wrong. Something as simple as only seeing the outcome cannot allow you to infer how the game yesterday unfolded. Lacklustre to say the least in the 2nd half. Having said that, important 3 points if we are to make a stab at the top of the table come end of season. Even the Mooy era would have seen Newcastle score and equalise yesterday. I remember it quite clearly happening - losing from positions we should not have. I think this does indicate a positive cultural change in the club - a few more attacking and positive shots on goal would have not gone astray. We seemed extremely hesitatant knowing the threat from the counter. Whilst im not really a fan of Joyce tactically, he comes up short in many areas and there are clearly issues with his man management, i do think he's beginning to turn the cultural issues we've had around. In his time we have improved our away record enormously, and come from behind a plethora of times, something that you definitely couldnt attribute to us pre his appointment. We have also conceded the fewest goals in the league to this point in the season. At this point in time i tend to think he's not the man we need going forward into next season, but perhaps we needed that iron fist to reset us in the longer term ie taking a step back to take two forward. The most crazy thing we have at the minute is we are 6 points off top, and 3 off 2nd and 3rd despite what we all perceive as one of the worst periods in our history, with very clear scope to add a few attackers in the next month. Given games against Bris, CCM and WSW in the next 4, plus Perth at home, we could genuinely be in the race come Feb with some serious reinforcements. Likewise, we've been burnt in these scenarios in the past to no need to be too optimistic either, but there's def a conceivable way out of the mire. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haz Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 54 minutes ago, bt50 said: Whilst im not really a fan of Joyce tactically, he comes up short in many areas and there are clearly issues with his man management, i do think he's beginning to turn the cultural issues we've had around. In his time we have improved our away record enormously, and come from behind a plethora of times, something that you definitely couldnt attribute to us pre his appointment. We have also conceded the fewest goals in the league to this point in the season. At this point in time i tend to think he's not the man we need going forward into next season, but perhaps we needed that iron fist to reset us in the longer term ie taking a step back to take two forward. The most crazy thing we have at the minute is we are 6 points off top, and 3 off 2nd and 3rd despite what we all perceive as one of the worst periods in our history, with very clear scope to add a few attackers in the next month. Given games against Bris, CCM and WSW in the next 4, plus Perth at home, we could genuinely be in the race come Feb with some serious reinforcements. Likewise, we've been burnt in these scenarios in the past to no need to be too optimistic either, but there's def a conceivable way out of the mire. Why so positive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, haz said: Why so positive? Cos im not a negative cunt like the rest of you No pretty much just putting some facts out there for context. Im far from bullish about us and our chances, but there's definitely a case for the brightside going into the transfer window. Likewise, whilst I've clearly stated im not really a fan of reappointing Joyce going forward, you also need to give the devil his due. It hasnt been ALL bad. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haz Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, bt50 said: Cos im not a negative cunt like the rest of you No pretty much just putting some facts out there for context. Im far from bullish about us and our chances, but there's definitely a case for the brightside going into the transfer window. Likewise, whilst I've clearly stated im not really a fan of reappointing Joyce going forward, you also need to give the devil his due. It hasnt been ALL bad. Come to the dark side my child Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, haz said: Come to the dark side my child Im afraid i cant see the lure of wallowing in my own misery comrade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rass Posted January 7, 2019 Report Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 hours ago, bt50 said: Whilst im not really a fan of Joyce tactically, he comes up short in many areas and there are clearly issues with his man management, i do think he's beginning to turn the cultural issues we've had around. In his time we have improved our away record enormously, and come from behind a plethora of times, something that you definitely couldnt attribute to us pre his appointment. We have also conceded the fewest goals in the league to this point in the season. At this point in time i tend to think he's not the man we need going forward into next season, but perhaps we needed that iron fist to reset us in the longer term ie taking a step back to take two forward. The most crazy thing we have at the minute is we are 6 points off top, and 3 off 2nd and 3rd despite what we all perceive as one of the worst periods in our history, with very clear scope to add a few attackers in the next month. Given games against Bris, CCM and WSW in the next 4, plus Perth at home, we could genuinely be in the race come Feb with some serious reinforcements. Likewise, we've been burnt in these scenarios in the past to no need to be too optimistic either, but there's def a conceivable way out of the mire. Exactly. Probably just a ripple effect though.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 Was bored (and have found a good, granular, reliable data source). I'd had a fairly good discussion about the quality of goals that Melbourne Victory scored with a friend recently about the amount of "good" goals they scored (and with the vague rumours of Toivonen coming to us I thought I'd look a little into the goals he scored this year) - whats phenomenal is the expected goals vs actual goals for Toivonen and Barbarouses this year as they both exceeded their expected goals by a huge amount. While Williams, Krishna and DeLaet also just exceeded their expected totals by a fair margin. If you normalise to median minutes played for these players minutes played you can see that a full year of MacLaren would have likely yielded a fairly decent (if unspectacular year), hopefully we can have a gaffer next year that will get a bit more out of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Tommykins said: Was bored (and have found a good, granular, reliable data source). I'd had a fairly good discussion about the quality of goals that Melbourne Victory scored with a friend recently about the amount of "good" goals they scored (and with the vague rumours of Toivonen coming to us I thought I'd look a little into the goals he scored this year) - whats phenomenal is the expected goals vs actual goals for Toivonen and Barbarouses this year as they both exceeded their expected goals by a huge amount. While Williams, Krishna and DeLaet also just exceeded their expected totals by a fair margin. If you normalise to median minutes played for these players minutes played you can see that a full year of MacLaren would have likely yielded a fairly decent (if unspectacular year), hopefully we can have a gaffer next year that will get a bit more out of him. What is the expected goals parameter based on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torn Asunder Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Tommykins said: Was bored (and have found a good, granular, reliable data source). I'd had a fairly good discussion about the quality of goals that Melbourne Victory scored with a friend recently about the amount of "good" goals they scored (and with the vague rumours of Toivonen coming to us I thought I'd look a little into the goals he scored this year) - whats phenomenal is the expected goals vs actual goals for Toivonen and Barbarouses this year as they both exceeded their expected goals by a huge amount. While Williams, Krishna and DeLaet also just exceeded their expected totals by a fair margin. If you normalise to median minutes played for these players minutes played you can see that a full year of MacLaren would have likely yielded a fairly decent (if unspectacular year), hopefully we can have a gaffer next year that will get a bit more out of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, bt50 said: What is the expected goals parameter based on? https://blog.wyscout.com/expected-goals-football-meaning/ Gives a much better rundown than I would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jovan Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, bt50 said: What is the expected goals parameter based on? When I was playing, every time I took a shot. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 54 minutes ago, Jovan said: When I was playing, every time I took a shot. Lucky I asked, because my definition is just about the opposite... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommykins Posted June 13, 2019 Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 1 hour ago, bt50 said: Lucky I asked, because my definition is just about the opposite... Expected goals were always highest the further I was from the ball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.