Betting/Gambling/Punting Whatever you call it

[kingofhearts]

Fuck off

[hedaik]

I put the house on Preferment. 

that was my horse. Got blocked as it was making its run when two other horses collided and had no chance from there.

Edited November 3, 2015 by hedaik

[cadete]

Had Criterion and Fame Game, so I then tried to win my money back on a roughie that's rolls forward in the next that just got third to pay 7 for a place.

Ended a paltry 24 up... Thanks to the shit job at preparing the track by the VRC, it really is coming close to ruining the Carnival.

I am really happy that Michelle Payne won the race  (I have had some good wins of her before in the Winter) but seriously those horses from behind out wide were running on a track four lengths slower.

It looked like Fame Game was running through a fucken Corn Field. If it had been two miles at eveb Caulfield (Which is meant to have a track bias with The Heath) I reckon it would have won.

 

Edited November 3, 2015 by cadete

[Shahanga]

SEN had a good interview with Michelle prior to the race.  Whilst it was clear they took her seriously (as you'd expect and as they always do), they also didn't really rate her mount by the sound of it.  

[pattyd89]

Melbourne City paying $3.10 and the draw paying $3.50 against Adelaide tonight. 

[Tesla]

Melbourne City paying $3.10 and the draw paying $3.50 against Adelaide tonight. 

Yeah I saw that earlier. As much as I dont rate us I think we may win this one, and at those odds its worth a bet.

[n i k o]

Are 4 leg multis worth betting on?

Or is it safer to just back a more likely winner, like for eg. Man U v West Brom? 

Im new to this and wanna slowly get my money back I lost during the cup  

[Tesla]

Are 4 leg multis worth betting on?

Or is it safer to just back a more likely winner, like for eg. Man U v West Brom? 

Im new to this and wanna slowly get my money back I lost during the cup  

I bet 4 leg multis all the time, but only with the cash back if 1 leg fails promos. I almost never lose my money, get my money back a lot of the time for having 3/4, and have a pretty good win rate as well. 

But 3/4 is the most common result for me so those refunds are what make it extremely profitable.

I'm usually getting final odds of anywhere between $4 and $20 with something like $7.50 being the average. So it's not like I'm just betting easy legs, often I feel like 1.80 legs can be just as likely as 1.30 legs. 

[Jimmy]

Are 4 leg multis worth betting on?

Or is it safer to just back a more likely winner, like for eg. Man U v West Brom? 

Im new to this and wanna slowly get my money back I lost during the cup  

It depends. You can do a simple expected returns equation to see how it works. 

Say you have $40 to spend on four bets paying $2.20 each with you assessing all of them to have a 50% chance of winning (over the odds). The expected returns on single legs or a multi would work like this:

Singles:

$10 X $2.20 X 0.5 X 4 = Expected return of $44

Multi:

$40 X $23.43 X 0.0625 = Expected return of $58.58

Alternatively if you're spending that $40 on four bets at $1.80 each that you all assess  also have a 50% of winning (under the odds) it looks like this:

Singles:

$10 X $1.80 X 0.5 X 4 = Expected return of $36

Multi:

$40 X $10.50 X 0.0625 = Expected return of $26.24

So you can see that Multis are actually better provided that you're getting each leg over the odds and are betting the same stake you would have over all the legs if you were doing singles which if you're being honest is never going to happen. It's hard enough to get four events over the odds and even if you do you're not going to drop four times your regular stake on something paying $20+ and you'd have to do like 15 times before you were getting close to a guaranteed returned. So it's not really realistically better as most people do a heap of random shit for $1638 odds and put $1.50 on them or w/e.

So my advice is stick to singles. Telsa would probably advise differently though as he seems to have had some success with them.

[n i k o]

Thanks guys, decided to place a 4 leg multi across the EPL and our game tonight and see how it goes. 

[Jimmy]

Should have gone singles. 

Hope you're at least using a cash back offer.

[n i k o]

Should have gone singles. 

Hope you're at least using a cash back offer.

Yeah I definitely went with a cash back offer. I made a pretty small bet though just to try it out.

[Tesla]

Jimmy, I've actually said a number of times that I don't like multis and don't believe they are good value, in general. 

But it's the cash back offers that change that and make them attractive, as I alluded to in my post.

If you play it pretty safe you'll find 3/4 is actually the most common result, and I reckon it has been pretty 50-50 for me between getting 2/4 or less and getting 4/4. And with the odds, being 50-50 between winning your money and losing your money makes it highly profitable. 

Now if you remove the promo and all those 3/4 multis lead to losing money then it's fucked.

One tip I can give, when I first started gambling on these multis and I was scared of losing $20 compared to now when losing $500 wouldn't phase me because I know I'll win it back, I tried to really exploit it and just put in 4 legs of like 1.30$. What I found is that those are the most bs odds as the legs really weren't winning as much as they should be if those odds are correct. Even had 0/4 once or twice which should be pretty unlikely at those odds. I've found that bets of up to 1.70ish or 1.80 are probably not much less likely than $1.30 bets. So in general I stay away from those really low odds even in a multi as my experience is that they are the most under the odds bets you will find. Thought it depends, I'll obviously take real, Barca, bayern at home if I can get them for around 1.30.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Tesla

[HeartinHobart]

Are 4 leg multis worth betting on?

Or is it safer to just back a more likely winner, like for eg. Man U v West Brom? 

Im new to this and wanna slowly get my money back I lost during the cup  

Only advise I'd give if you have a 4 leg multi going for 130K don't cash out for $400

[cadete]

Sport Multis are for mugs... 

Yes, there are few short term exceptions when PPL have enough time to look up every bonus bet/offer being offered by corporates until they get banned for doing so but by and large no Professional Punter does Sport Multi's.

Edited November 5, 2015 by cadete

[Jimmy]

Sport Multis are for mugs... 

Yes, there are few short term exceptions when PPL have enough time to look up every bonus bet/offer being offered by corporates until they get banned for doing so but by and large no Professional Punter does Sport Multi's.

This.

[Tesla]

Sport Multis are for mugs... 

Yes, there are few short term exceptions when PPL have enough time to look up every bonus bet/offer being offered by corporates until they get banned for doing so but by and large no Professional Punter does Sport Multi's.

Correct, but exploiting the promotions is the only way 95% of the people in this thread, if not all, are going to make any real profit from gambling.

And if you do make profit otherwise, such as racing, you'll get banned from top tote etc as well and then it will be pretty hard to continue to make any profit off just fixed odds. So that's short term as well for most people that even manage to make a profit like that.

Very few people make consistent, sizeable, long term profit gambling as I'm sure you know. And the vast majority of punters obviously lose money.

So the best thing most people in this thread can do is exploit the promos. There is a significant amount of money to be made believe me. They're scum anyway, I enjoy the fact I'm taking their money more than the money itself  

Edited November 5, 2015 by Tesla

[HeartFc]

Only successful mode of gambling for me has been poker. You're playing against other people so "the house" doesn't give a shit who wins. You just need to play the percentages and play enough hours and you should be turning a profit. 

[Tesla]

Only successful mode of gambling for me has been poker. You're playing against other people so "the house" doesn't give a shit who wins. You just need to play the percentages and play enough hours and you should be turning a profit. 

You'd make more money working at mcdonalds.

Even the 'pros' who play 12 tables at once are making a pretty average hourly rate, let alone all the people who aren't even on that level and lose money and time.

Btw it takes like 50,000 hands to know if you're actually good at poker or have just been lucky.

FWIW, I reckon I've made like $20k profit over the last year gambling, had a quick look at a couple of accounts yesterday and I think that estimate wouldn't be far off when adding all my accounts together. Too each their own but i dont think anyone else on here is doing that so all I'll say is take the bookies money while theyre giving it away. At some point the competition will subside and therefore the promotions will too and it will be back to a net loss activity.

Edited November 5, 2015 by Tesla

[HeartFc]

Elite pros make millions per year and even solid semi-pro's are clearing 70k+. Ive made 10k profit in 10 months logging around 100 hours of play, which is around 100 per hour. 

The thing is only around 10% of people who play actually make a profit, so yes most people would be better off flipping burgers. 

 

How did manage to stay so consistent sports betting? 

[Thrillhouse]

once my 2 nba refunds got through i'll be up a little over 1700 since mid august

WH $3 fav dog to finish 1st or 2nd got up tonight so that was an easy 50

[HeartFc]

Rapid Vienna paying $4 to beat Vikroria Pizen 

Rapid 3-0-0 and Pizen 1-0-2 so far in Europa 

------------------------

Lazio playing $3 to beat Rosenburg

Lazio 2-1-0 and Rosenburg 0-1-2

 

Both really juicy.

[Tesla]

Elite pros make millions per year and even solid semi-pro's are clearing 70k+. Ive made 10k profit in 10 months logging around 100 hours of play, which is around 100 per hour. 

The thing is only around 10% of people who play actually make a profit, so yes most people would be better off flipping burgers. 

 

How did manage to stay so consistent sports betting? 

What are you playing, NL? What blinds? How many tables are you playing at once? And how are you tracking your hours is it recorded in the program or HUD you use or just an estimate?

I don't mean to be a cunt asking so many questions but those kind of figures would mean you're a very good player so I'm interested to know. Though like I said it takes a lot of hands before you can conclude that luck has reverted to zero and you actually are good, I'm not sure if 100 hours is enough for that. 

The thing with poker is it's actually not too difficult to calculate how much you can make per hour, and depending on tables played at once and blinds/stakes  it really isn't a lot even if you are very good. 

If we're talking online poker, there is very little chance someone clearing 70k a year consistently is semi-pro. It's most likely  someone sitting there for 6 hours + a day with like 12 tables open grinding away.

Cunts making millions are those who've either had luck winning big tournaments, or are someone like Dan Blizzerian who has access to rich celebrities to hustle, or they're an exceptionally skilled player grinding away more hours than a full time job on the highest  stakes online poker. 

I played a lot for a few weeks, was doing ok for someone who was fairly new, obviously on fairly low stakes so it wasn't worth my time but I was prepared to invest the time if it would pay off later. But when you calculate the cold hard numbers of what it would take to be actually making good money it's pretty fucked and it put me off investing more time. 

Btw I'm not ignoring your question about my betting, I just cbf writing more right now because my home internet isn't working and I'm writing this on my phone, will answer tomorrow. 

I also got on Lazio but always seem to  lose on these ones where odds seem unusually high. 

Edited November 5, 2015 by Tesla

[HeartFc]

No those are good questions. I play NL MTTS (multi table torny) ranging anywhere between $3-$44 (including a turbos) buy-in but my average buy-in is around $12. I never play more than 5 tables at once and prefer playing 2-3 coz it gives me a chance to work on my laptop or watch a movie etc. I use poker tracker 4 HUD which records all my data, however its been down a few times so id have to add an extra 10+ hours of play atleast. 

Just checked and I'm actually just over 115 hours since mid Jan but this doesn't include my non-torny hours or non torny profit but I play cash games very rarely.  

Over the last 5-6 years and 3 different sites I'm certainly well over 100,000 hands played so I know where I'm at these days. 

Think of playing low stakes and making a small profit as an investment into your overall game as a player rather than pure profit per hour. Everyone needs to grind out hours and hours and provided you play solid, every hour is improving your game, even unlucky sessions. Id ignore all profit per hour stats unless it effects your life enough it questions it. 

I probably should've used the word semi pro either coz its more like a pro who simply plays less than a crazy grinder who knocks out 80+ hours a week playing an average 8 tables. 

Dan Bilzerian is a massive shit talker so ye Id ignore him complelely. A player like Tom Dawn is a better example of an elite player but actually he doesn't make any where as much online as he does live. I guess it doesn't really fit into this convo as much since I play 99% online. 

Summing up id say I'm more like $70 per hour but I like I said I think of this as an investment into my poker future. Everyone is waiting for that big pay day. Most ive won in a single torny in 3k but I'm looking to improve my game and start playing higher stakes so eventually I can have a crack at 100K+ prize pools and hopefully take one down. Of course playing WSOP main event in vegas being the ultimate dream. 

 

-------------------------------------------------

 

Rapid won 2-1 and Lazio up 2-0 at half time 

Edited November 5, 2015 by HeartFc

[Thrillhouse]

Rapid Vienna paying $4 to beat Vikroria Pizen 

Rapid 3-0-0 and Pizen 1-0-2 so far in Europa 

------------------------

Lazio playing $3 to beat Rosenburg

Lazio 2-1-0 and Rosenburg 0-1-2

 

Both really juicy.

legend  put 10 on each

[cadete]

Correct, but exploiting the promotions is the only way 95% of the people in this thread, if not all, are going to make any real profit from gambling.

And if you do make profit otherwise, such as racing, you'll get banned from top tote etc as well and then it will be pretty hard to continue to make any profit off just fixed odds. So that's short term as well for most people that even manage to make a profit like that.

Very few people make consistent, sizeable, long term profit gambling as I'm sure you know. And the vast majority of punters obviously lose money.

So the best thing most people in this thread can do is exploit the promos. There is a significant amount of money to be made believe me. They're scum anyway, I enjoy the fact I'm taking their money more than the money itself  

1. Fixed Odds are not going to stop you making a Profit the difference is not that great, and if you win you win you just win slightly less so .

2. Anyway you can't get banned from Betfair as it's an exchange service and their odds are good enough, and Professional Punters who get banned from Corporates make deals with Bookmakers where they receive Top Fluc Odds anyway.

[pattyd89]

From a betting perspective (taking my City fan hat off) - if City keep losing at home and then winning away hence bumping the odds up, I'll be rich haha!

[Tesla]

1. Fixed Odds are not going to stop you making a Profit the difference is not that great, and if you win you win you just win slightly less so .

2. Anyway you can't get banned from Betfair as it's an exchange service and their odds are good enough, and Professional Punters who get banned from Corporates make deals with Bookmakers where they receive Top Fluc Odds anyway.

I wasn't really talking about professional punters but rather someone who is good enough to be making a small profit on average, losing top tote could change that small profit into no profit. Though I know a lot of serious punters prefer fixed odds anyway. The problem with Betfair is the liquidity isn't great in Australia  so it may be a bit of struggle I imagine to get the odds and bet size you want on smaller races. 

A bit of side note, but I do think it's possible to be a professional even on sport (and there are some), I just meant multis are not the way to do it as they're a shit way to bet, if you're actually good you'd be better off just placing large single bets. 

 

[hedaik]

Took some piss farting around to link my Signature card to my Crownbet account but I finally managed to turn the free reward points into $50 cash. 

[Tesla]

No those are good questions. I play NL MTTS (multi table torny) ranging anywhere between $3-$44 (including a turbos) buy-in but my average buy-in is around $12. I never play more than 5 tables at once and prefer playing 2-3 coz it gives me a chance to work on my laptop or watch a movie etc. I use poker tracker 4 HUD which records all my data, however its been down a few times so id have to add an extra 10+ hours of play atleast. 

Just checked and I'm actually just over 115 hours since mid Jan but this doesn't include my non-torny hours or non torny profit but I play cash games very rarely.  

Over the last 5-6 years and 3 different sites I'm certainly well over 100,000 hands played so I know where I'm at these days. 

Think of playing low stakes and making a small profit as an investment into your overall game as a player rather than pure profit per hour. Everyone needs to grind out hours and hours and provided you play solid, every hour is improving your game, even unlucky sessions. Id ignore all profit per hour stats unless it effects your life enough it questions it. 

I probably should've used the word semi pro either coz its more like a pro who simply plays less than a crazy grinder who knocks out 80+ hours a week playing an average 8 tables. 

Dan Bilzerian is a massive shit talker so ye Id ignore him complelely. A player like Tom Dawn is a better example of an elite player but actually he doesn't make any where as much online as he does live. I guess it doesn't really fit into this convo as much since I play 99% online. 

Summing up id say I'm more like $70 per hour but I like I said I think of this as an investment into my poker future. Everyone is waiting for that big pay day. Most ive won in a single torny in 3k but I'm looking to improve my game and start playing higher stakes so eventually I can have a crack at 100K+ prize pools and hopefully take one down. Of course playing WSOP main event in vegas being the ultimate dream. 

 

-------------------------------------------------

 

Rapid won 2-1 and Lazio up 2-0 at half time 

Yeah Dan Blizzerian is a shit talker, most his money is probably just shit his father stole and Dan is just using poker as a front to launder it. And he obviously isn't as wealthy as he makes it seem he is. But I do believe he is hustling fairly large amounts playing against rich celebrities etc, lol if you've seen those videos of celebrity poker tournaments most of them are so fucking bad. Being an above average player playing against rich people who are shit at poker will be more profitable than online poker will be even for a lot of very good players.

Interesting,  I thought you were playing cash games. Tournaments are more fun anyway tbh. Nor sure how you're playing multiple tables and still working? That would be good but even one table would distract me too much TBH.

Lol I actually won a multi on this mornings games $50 at almost $8 odds, club brugge, villareal, Bilbao, St etienne. Using the unibet weekly multi promotion of money back if 1 leg fails. Won a few singles as well (Lazio, Basel, augsburg goals over)  but lost a few as well so broke even on the singles but still good with the multi win. 

Edited November 6, 2015 by Tesla

[HeartFc]

Ye tornys are way more fun and a lot more rewarding especially if you've taken a few hits from idiots but manage to grind back for 6-7 hours and make the final table.

--------

Im taking up crownbet's $50 deposit with $150 bonus bet for the weekend so post up any games you think are worth a look. 

[Tesla]

Ye tornys are way more fun and a lot more rewarding especially if you've taken a few hits from idiots but manage to grind back for 6-7 hours and make the final table.

--------

Im taking up crownbet's $50 deposit with $150 bonus bet for the weekend so post up any games you think are worth a look. 

Honestly I like to use bonus bets on racing, the key to bonus bets is using them on high odds, the higher the odds the more valuable the bonus bet is. So I suppose you can use them on multis as well, but I just like to use them quickly on races so I can begin turning over winnings asap. Then I turn over the winnings on soccer or exploit some promotion eg the racing one tomorrow at crownbet. 

[Grimey]

 

Pretty much every betting site still gives signup bonuses to Victorians, they just have to legally say its excluded. The one exception though for me was crownbet, they didnt give me it, but others seem to get it fine. 

WilliamHill didn't give me one, but I just kicked up a fuss in an online help chat and they gave it to me as a 'goodwill gesture'.
Same with centrebet.

[HeartFc]

Crown actually called me and and offered any deposit between $50 and $500 with $150 bonus.

Very tempted to just pop in $500 and shove the whole $650 on Bayern + Barca + Man City @ $2 

 

[Tesla]

TTDIM: when some dumb cunt on betfair gives you $11 for a $6.80 on the tote dog and it wins  

[Jimmy]

TTDIM: when some dumb cunt on betfair gives you $11 for a $6.80 on the tote dog and it wins  

Think there'd be any $$$ in just acting as a bookie on betfair? I've never actually backed or layed anything over there but I understand the margins are significantly less than conventional bookies so I'm not sure if there would be but is an interesting thought.

Edited November 6, 2015 by Jimmy

[MHFCRC]

been using betfair when not taking advantage of promos and have noticed myself doing significantly better.. the in play market is very shit % wise, but sometimes some money to be made when a horse drifts cause it settles back in the field (even if that's it's racing pattern) and especially when they're flying out in front..

more money made from the fact that the market is 100% although commission is a bitch (understand that betfair has to make money somehow)

[Tesla]

Think there'd be any $$$ in just acting as a bookie on betfair? I've never actually backed or layed anything over there but I understand the margins are significantly less than conventional bookies so I'm not sure if there would be but is an interesting thought.

Not sure what you mean by acting as a bookie?

I've tried a few times to get over the odds at betfair with mixed success, that was probably my best success so far. It's not easy because there are people running automated scripts, undercutting you instantly etc. I think greyhounds has potential because there is fuck all liquidity on betfair for it, so if someone gets keen to lay a runner even your back bet that's quite high might get matched.

 

been using betfair when not taking advantage of promos and have noticed myself doing significantly better.. the in play market is very shit % wise, but sometimes some money to be made when a horse drifts cause it settles back in the field (even if that's it's racing pattern) and especially when they're flying out in front..

more money made from the fact that the market is 100% although commission is a bitch (understand that betfair has to make money somehow)

How does their in-play work? I've never tried. Do you have to call? Do they have a click to call thing like bet365 and WH?

That's some big potential for betfair IMO, in play markets are shit in terms of percentage everywhere, but I reckon at least for sports they could have low percentage.

Edited November 7, 2015 by Tesla

[Thrillhouse]

put chautauqua down the useless cunt, WH had $2 premium price on it, 2nd fav was like $7 and still only came 2nd, some $14 horse won, $50 down the drain 

[Tesla]

put chautauqua down the useless cunt, WH had $2 premium price on it, 2nd fav was like $7 and still only came 2nd, some $14 horse won, $50 down the drain 

Ubet refund for 2nd and 3rd

No way would I bet on it otherwise, no value wt that price. Also $2 is shit for a premium price it was around $1.90 anyway. 

Up about $550 today fuck sake what am I gonna do after the spring racing is over. Be fuck all promos next week. 

Edited November 7, 2015 by Tesla