cadete Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 47 minutes ago, Tesla said: I dunno, I think for something like backing the field, betfair will be quite a lot better (just by laying the favourite). But betfair is more effort as timing is important if you do want significantly better odds, so it really depends on how much you're betting whether it's worth the effort. Fwiw, I wouldn't back a runner in Australian thoroughbred racing on betfair, because things like best tote and BoB are better, but for when you basically want to lay a runner it's a good option. On the subject of betfair, things I find it good for: Backing outsiders on low liquidity racing (eg greyhounds and harness), cause often someone will give you retarded odds (eg $12 on a $7 runner). Though watch out for commission as it can be like 8% on some of these markets rather than the standard 5%. Sport, when Pinnacle doesn't have the market (eg Both teams to score in soccer), though there is usually shit liquidity on these markets. UK racing, best thing to use betfair for tbh, liquidity is high and even if you've set the odds you want to back it at at like 3.8 when currently it's 3.2,it jumps around so much in the last 5 mins you'll likely still get matched. Though often a runner can shorten on betfair and someone like bet365 will still be offering higher odds so worth looking when you think the odds have shortened too much. Sidenote, at some point this week I'll be in high enough a betfair points tier to be receiving a commission discount (fuck all discount but still better than nothing). Betfair is really only any good for Outsiders, it was really good when it first came to Australia for Thoroughbred Outsiders but then the dumb arses all did their money in and got found out so you dont see the same unbelievable odds on longshots at City Meets. So it would make sense that some of these odds would still appear at things like low key Dog and Harness meets... but I dont like the risk involved in either sport to ever bet seriously on it unless its just small bets to waste time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) My view on greyhounds is that you just have to accept that it's really risky and therefore rarely back anything even remotely short, so outsiders is all I'm really interested in tbh. In some ways it's 'easy' because it seems to have the least variables, but then the randomness ruins it and I'm really only betting on it for fun when bored as well. As for harness, it's a shit form of racing to watch tbh but if you stay away from races with 1.10 runners it's not bad for gambling on IMO. I think it requires the most effort though, to really be good at it you probably have to watch every single race and trials etc to be on top of it. And the rewards seem to be there for those that do, especially with the early odds bet365 put out. I might try follow it more closely when I get back as I reckon there is money to be made if you put the time in. Edited December 21, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 hours ago, Tesla said: My view on greyhounds is that you just have to accept that it's really risky and therefore rarely back anything even remotely short, so outsiders is all I'm really interested in tbh. In some ways it's 'easy' because it seems to have the least variables, but then the randomness ruins it and I'm really only betting on it for fun when bored as well. As for harness, it's a shit form of racing to watch tbh but if you stay away from races with 1.10 runners it's not bad for gambling on IMO. I think it requires the most effort though, to really be good at it you probably have to watch every single race and trials etc to be on top of it. And the rewards seem to be there for those that do, especially with the early odds bet365 put out. I might try follow it more closely when I get back as I reckon there is money to be made if you put the time in. Do you really have that much spare time that you are prepared to do research into Harness Racing? I really wouldn't waste my time, ESP considering the fact that its approaching it death due to price of Training/Transport being far too much when compared to the paltry Prize Money on offer... you be better off looking further into the Gallops or even the Dogs if you wanting to do Punting Research as at least they will be around in ten years time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 TBH it wouldn't surprise me if in 10 years time it's hard to profit on anything anyway so it doesn't matter. Are people actually still getting points at crownbet for the NBA promo? Can't remember how many points I was on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 13 minutes ago, Tesla said: TBH it wouldn't surprise me if in 10 years time it's hard to profit on anything anyway so it doesn't matter. Are people actually still getting points at crownbet for the NBA promo? Can't remember how many points I was on... Please explain why in tens years time it would be hard to profit of thoroughbred racing? Every year since like the 1930's more and more thoroughbred horses enter training and hit the track so that just does not make any sense... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted December 25, 2015 Report Share Posted December 25, 2015 On 22/12/2015 at 0:43 AM, cadete said: Please explain why in tens years time it would be hard to profit of thoroughbred racing? Every year since like the 1930's more and more thoroughbred horses enter training and hit the track so that just does not make any sense... Not at all what I meant, I don't doubt the future of thoroughbred racing (well, maybe a little bit with the way the radical left is becoming more influential, but that trend should end before they have anywhere near enough influence to stop such an important part of Australia's culture and economy). Rather, I think technology has increases the number of informed punters, and made them better, which leads to odds being shaped more accurately and faster than before, making it harder to have an edge. Wether it's something as simple as having free and easy access to watching races (something that even a year ago was much harder), or the greater availability of statistics and data for those who prefer a mathematical approach, or the ease in which you can verify the profitability of a tipster and buy tips from them for those who prefer to just buy and follow tips from pros. Plenty of ways that it's becoming easier due to technology, which makes the odds more accurate and therefore harder to beat, and I'm sure that's a trend that will continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 good day yesterday, WH had boxing day premium price offers each hour, $3 for a fav horse to finish 1/2, put max $50 on it and won had 2 soccer multies and both had games postponed cause of weather, rest of the legs got up so they paid out minus the postponed games, 5 on each got back 27 and 34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 hour ago, Thrillhouse said: good day yesterday, WH had boxing day premium price offers each hour, $3 for a fav horse to finish 1/2, put max $50 on it and won had 2 soccer multies and both had games postponed cause of weather, rest of the legs got up so they paid out minus the postponed games, 5 on each got back 27 and 34 It was the only promotion of 10 that got up. So either your extremely lucky that that was the only one u took or your ignoring your losing bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 4 minutes ago, HeartinHobart said: It was the only promotion of 10 that got up. So either your extremely lucky that that was the only one u took or your ignoring your losing bets. haha wow, i only put like $2.50 on the krishna to score promo but that didn't worry me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 If anyone is up, Leopardstown race 6, #11. Paying $23 and bet365 are paying out 5 places on the each way (1/4 payout, so $6.50). Thank me later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 looking to make accounts on luxbet and centrebet for the 1st matched bet, anyone got any sign up bonus codes / and referrals they want to PM me Will look into other sites that allow paypal too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted December 31, 2015 Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 12 hours ago, Thrillhouse said: looking to make accounts on luxbet and centrebet for the 1st matched bet, anyone got any sign up bonus codes / and referrals they want to PM me Will look into other sites that allow paypal too Paypal is a huge advantage for a gambling site. Deposit on a Friday night, money doesn't come out of your bank until Monday night. In that time win a bunch more money and withdraw it to your bank account. Money you've won hits your bank account Monday night a couple hours before the money you've deposited. So basically you've won money while still having all your money available to you over the weekend Or even if it's not the weekend it's still nice having a bit of a delay before funds leave your account, if you gamble a lot you can easily have thousands of dollars in your betting accounts or on it's way to your bank so it can leave you short on liquid cash at times. Pretty sure Centrebet only give a bonus either to the new account or the referer, not both. At least that's how it used to be. So you don't want to be referred. Luxbet don't do paypal do they? Bet365 also do paypal, but they don't do many promos. Actually currently they have the best promo they have ever had and it's not that great. Place a bet on a bbl match and then you can make an in play bet on the same match with money back if it loses. They are the best site for non-promo gambling though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lost so much money at crownbet recently. They used to probably be my most profitable from all the free money they were giving away in the BetEasy days so I obviously havent received any deposit match offers etc, I wonder if now after losing a lot if I stop betting with them for a while whether they will give me a deposit offer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Anyone else notice you now have to sign in to see promotions on most the sites? I'm guessing it's the new laws in NSW etc banning promotions, so they only show them if you're in an eligable state (eg Victoria). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) put the account on nz to beat sri lanka today at 1.15 during the 2nd innings.. relieved to get the 550+ let it roll again on the stars today at 1.14 a little into the 2nd innings, another 600 return Edited January 6, 2016 by Thrillhouse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 (edited) I have destroyed bet365 since coming back to Aus. See below for all my bets since Monday at bet365: Edited January 7, 2016 by Tesla 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carlings Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Haven't been on sportsbet for a while so jumped on the live chat and asked for a free bet. Within 5 mins they matched my $50 deposit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 1 hour ago, carlings said: Haven't been on sportsbet for a while so jumped on the live chat and asked for a free bet. Within 5 mins they matched my $50 deposit. Haha nice one. I got a $20 bonus bet with Sports Bet just before, chucked it on for a CCM win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Farkn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 (edited) I think this is my most profitable bet ever (see attached). Dat feel when you're about to get banned at bet365. Will pay money for bet365 accounts, they don't do promos anyway for you promo gamblers. Edited January 8, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Going to start using neteller for deposits/withdrawals where it's accepted (think only betfair and bet365 in Australia accept them, but I will be hitting the international sites hard and winning as much as I can before they government review is finished and they're most likely banned). Reason being is that I'm making paypal/poli/mastercard a decent amount of fees with all the deposits I make, but don't get a cut. With neteller at least I get rewards for the money I'm turning over. Worth considering for anyone putting a bit of money through the gambling sites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 (edited) I'd sell my bet365 account to you Tes. Edited January 10, 2016 by Jimmy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mus-28 Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 Inter losing at home to Sassuolo fucked me royally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 So here is an interesting one, the next US lottery draw is actually profitable for players. Usually lottery is for mugs, but for the next draw a $2 ticket gives you $2.75 theoretical return. So $0.75 theoretical profit per ticket, or 37.5% return. Of course the variance is huge as it's basically gonna be you get nothing or you get it all, but still it's actually worth buying a ticket. Even the very best gamblers on sports or racing will not make more than 10-15% return max in the long run, having a form of gambling paying 37.5% return is basically unheard of. Very smart play for someone with enough money to buy every combination, spend like $585m and you are guaranteed to win what is $806m if taken as a lump sum and you are the only winner. Of course the risk lies in you not being the only winner and the prize is divided, and given that it is theoretically profitable you'd expect a lot of players to play and increase the chances of there being multiple winners, which in turn brings down the profitability for everyone. I suppose the real trick is paying someone that's working for the US lottery to tell you which combinations aren't purchased by anyone, and then only buying those (in a theoretical world where you can afford to spend 100s of Ms). Maybe you'll spend like $100m and have a 17% chance of winning $806m, easy $37m theoretical profit. Anyway, thought that was interesting, as lottery is normal boring and kind of pathetic TBH (never bought a lottery ticket in my life crew checking in). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomby Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 9 hours ago, Tesla said: So here is an interesting one, the next US lottery draw is actually profitable for players. Usually lottery is for mugs, but for the next draw a $2 ticket gives you $2.75 theoretical return. So $0.75 theoretical profit per ticket, or 37.5% return. Of course the variance is huge as it's basically gonna be you get nothing or you get it all, but still it's actually worth buying a ticket. Even the very best gamblers on sports or racing will not make more than 10-15% return max in the long run, having a form of gambling paying 37.5% return is basically unheard of. Very smart play for someone with enough money to buy every combination, spend like $585m and you are guaranteed to win what is $806m if taken as a lump sum and you are the only winner. Of course the risk lies in you not being the only winner and the prize is divided, and given that it is theoretically profitable you'd expect a lot of players to play and increase the chances of there being multiple winners, which in turn brings down the profitability for everyone. I suppose the real trick is paying someone that's working for the US lottery to tell you which combinations aren't purchased by anyone, and then only buying those (in a theoretical world where you can afford to spend 100s of Ms). Maybe you'll spend like $100m and have a 17% chance of winning $806m, easy $37m theoretical profit. Anyway, thought that was interesting, as lottery is normal boring and kind of pathetic TBH (never bought a lottery ticket in my life crew checking in). What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 13 minutes ago, tomby said: What? dont worry mate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 (edited) LOL over $5 odds for Leicester. LOL over $3.90 for the draw. I don't give a fuck if Tottenham win this game, it's irrelevant, betting on Leicester double chance / Leicester + 1 / Leicester +0.5 asian / betting on both Leicester and Draw / laying Tottenham / whatever the fuck you want to call it, is a better bet than 99% of the bets you scrubs are putting down. I'm tempted to just bet on Leicester, but those draw odds are juicy AF as well so you gotta go the Leicester double chance / Leicester + 1 / Leicester +0.5 asian / betting on both Leicester and Draw / laying Tottenham / whatever the fuck you want to call it. Edited January 13, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 (edited) Don't say I don't give you guys any tips Apart from that I got raped last night so I'm pretty over gambling for a while, it doesn't matter even if I won a bunch of money before going on a losing streak, it's steal way too stressful and leave me feeling like a degenerate, not worth it. Edited January 14, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Begbie Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 14 hours ago, Tesla said: Don't say I don't give you guys any tips Apart from that I got raped last night so I'm pretty over gambling for a while, it doesn't matter even if I won a bunch of money before going on a losing streak, it's steal way too stressful and leave me feeling like a degenerate, not worth it. TTIM: Getting a $75 on the spot fine yesterday morning TTDIM: Leicester winning it all back about 4 minutes later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFC-FAN Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 13/01/2016 at 9:19 AM, Begbie said: TTIM: Getting a $75 on the spot fine yesterday morning Myki? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 (edited) $2.20 tonight playing the bottom team? The equal top team, against a team that has lost 2/3 of it's games. Is this real life? I put $2k on it. Edited January 16, 2016 by Tesla 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFC-FAN Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 4 hours ago, Tesla said: $2.20 tonight playing the bottom team? The equal top team, against a team that has lost 2/3 of it's games. Is this real life? I put $2k on it. Who are you talking about? Ballsy punt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mus-28 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 1 hour ago, MHFC-FAN said: Who are you talking about? Ballsy punt! Leicester v Villa.......1-1 draw.....Leicester missed penalty to make it 2-0, Villa equalized in 75th minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFC-FAN Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, mus-28 said: Leicester v Villa.......1-1 draw.....Leicester missed penalty to make it 2-0, Villa equalized in 75th minute. fffaaarrrrkkkkkkk! Is Tesla still with us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 (edited) Lol obviously didn't actually bet 2k, though I was tempted to make a bigger than usual bet but this is exactly why you have to keep your discipline and not go crazy on one bet. Fwiw, exact same thing applies as what I said before the other game, it doesn't matter if the bet losses, it's a good bet and as long as you stick to those you'll make a profit on average. Edited January 17, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 (edited) Don't think I've ever bet under 2.5 in the A-League in my life, and it's a bit short for my liking at 1.87, and the return of Bonevacia is a concern, but I think under 2.5 is a solid bet for newcastle vs Phoenix. If it doesn't get up I'll never bet under 2.5 in the A-League again, been balling off of over 3.5 bets in the A-League recently cause it's the most fucked up high scoring league but I feel like something different today. Even better bet though is half time draw, $2.20. Edited January 17, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 (edited) Of course that shit ends in 3298452735823 goals. After all this time betting, I only just encountered my first result altering protest. Dat feel when you run 2nd but get bumped up to 1st Edited January 17, 2016 by Tesla 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 aus open promos on william hill have me moist 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 6 hours ago, Thrillhouse said: aus open promos on william hill have me moist Chase the ace is the best promo I think I've ever seen! Not going too hard with it (as I don't want my promos cut off) but probably have 10 bets per day. For an initial $200 outlay I'd be shocked if that wasn't turned into $700+ my tournaments end! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 karlovic rerired hurt after getting penetrated by some dud, got money back + $21 for his aces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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