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Betting/Gambling/Punting Whatever you call it


MaliMate
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10 hours ago, thisphantomfortress said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread but Spanish teams have now progressed in 43 of their last 45 two legged knock outs against non Spanish teams; if this isn't the easiest money going around I don't know what is

Interesting. 

Generally 45 bets really isn't enough to establish that there is something more than luck there, but with such a high strike rate it may be close, would need to know the average odds to calculate what the chance that it is just luck is.

On the topic of average odds, I'm assuming they are pretty low since it's only a 2 outcome market when it comes to qualifying and most of that would be Barca and Real. But you also would have had a few better ones along the way like atletico this morning. Really with a 43/45 strike rate you can't complain about the odds being low though.

The main problem following something like this is the trend could disappear at any time, for example next season I believe the EPL has even more money due to new TV deal, as well as Atletico have been a bit of an anomaly these last couple seasons and aren't going to be at this level for long. 

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12 hours ago, Tesla said:

Interesting.

Generally 45 bets really isn't enough to establish that there is something more than luck there, but with such a high strike rate it may be close, would need to know the average odds to calculate what the chance that it is just luck is.

On the topic of average odds, I'm assuming they are pretty low since it's only a 2 outcome market when it comes to qualifying and most of that would be Barca and Real. But you also would have had a few better ones along the way like atletico this morning. Really with a 43/45 strike rate you can't complain about the odds being low though.

The main problem following something like this is the trend could disappear at any time, for example next season I believe the EPL has even more money due to new TV deal, as well as Atletico have been a bit of an anomaly these last couple seasons and aren't going to be at this level for long.

It is the Europa league teams that really make the money, put into a multi with the Champions League and the money isn't huge but it is consistent.

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Didn't realise you meant all European games and not just CL. That certainly makes it a much more interesting statistic. 

Personally I don't like betting on European football much, but when I do my primary strategy is betting against English teams, which has been quite successful since they always under perform.

Also I don't like betting on knock out football, because you really have to go to the To Qualify market and take lesser odds since it's only 2 outcomes. IMO the best thing about soccer is that you have 3 outcomes and can therefore get better odds if you can not only pick the better team but also whether they'll win or if it will end in a draw.

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On 29/04/2016 at 11:00 AM, cadete said:

I guess its hard for both of us to realise how good you are...

Hendo.jpg

Logged on and had a browse for the first time in a long time.

 

First 2 posts I see from you, mention Ando & now Hendo.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if you mentioned The Supras on your deathbed tbh.

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1 hour ago, MaliMate said:

Logged on and had a browse for the first time in a long time.

 

First 2 posts I see from you, mention Ando & now Hendo.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if you mentioned The Supras on your deathbed tbh.

Well at least I will still be a man of my word on my deathbed unlike those two. :up:

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3 hours ago, MaliMate said:

Logged on and had a browse for the first time in a long time.

 

First 2 posts I see from you, mention Ando & now Hendo.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if you mentioned The Supras on your deathbed tbh.

Also BTW you reminded me....

Can you please pass on the message to @Pokensmoke that he was right and: "I really am enjoying the mediocrity of Geelong not going following the vision of a Nathan Buckley List Rebuild". :droy:

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 minute ago, Thrillhouse said:

gold coast would be lucky to beat anyone in the league atm

Also because Australians are, statistically speaking, the worst gamblers in the world (hence why the UK bookmakers have been tripping over themselves to enter the Australian market and give out free money with these promos over the last few years because they know they'll get it back in the long run).

'herp derp Adelaide going to win I don't care if they're $1.01 load up"

I don't think I've seen any other sport where low odds teams get rolled so often.

Generally I believe in sports betting markets to be extremely efficient but I don't know about AFL. I think there is a favourite bias (well there is probably a bit of a favourite bias in a lot of things but it usually will be tiny, seems to be more in AFL).

 

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46 minutes ago, Begbie said:

I know fuck all about AFL but is there a reason why GC Suns are $13 at home against Adelaide even though they're only 4 points behind on the ladder?

They have had the worst run with injuries I've ever seen tbh. Their first three games showed they could be well competitive this year but basically everything that could go wrong has and with Gazza and Hall out on top of everyone else they are basically no chance.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

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1 hour ago, bt50 said:

They have had the worst run with injuries I've ever seen tbh. Their first three games showed they could be well competitive this year but basically everything that could go wrong has and with Gazza and Hall out on top of everyone else they are basically no chance.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

so+you're+telling+me+there's+a

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 4/29/2016 at 10:58 AM, Tesla said:

Half those posts were tips, winning ones at that, people don't need to respond, just read and place their bets :up: 

Back Winks at around the same price to the win The Plate and you will get your payout a week earlier if that helps...

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5 hours ago, cadete said:

Back Winks at around the same price to the win The Plate and you will get your payout a week earlier if that helps...

Wouldn't mind that bet either, but again who can be bothered waiting so long for a payout, plus they'll be some promos for the plate closer to the date that will negate the benefit of the higher odds now.

 

Meanwhile, anyone get on Georgia to beat Spain at 60/1? Not every day you see a winner in soccer at those odds in the head to head market.

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Just now, Tesla said:

Wouldn't mind that bet either, but again who can be bothered waiting so long for a payout, plus they'll be some promos for the plate closer to the date that will negate the benefit of the higher odds now.

 

Meanwhile, anyone get on Georgia to beat Spain at 60/1? Not every day you see a winner in soccer at those odds in the head to head market.

I dont see this happening... it makes zero sense.

 

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3 hours ago, cadete said:

I dont see this happening... it makes zero sense.

 

Like all big races they'll be money back for 2nd and 3rd and things like that with a few of the corporates, no reason not to take those up as a recreational gambler. So even at lower odds you have a bit more confidence you won't lose your money. Plus of course the reason you're getting so much now is the added risk of an ante post bet. So it will be a much lower risk bet on the day, and even if it's significantly lower odds I'd have the confidence to put more money on, which can make up for the lower odds (even if have to bet 2-3 times more).

But to each their own, those odds are certainly tempting.

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This TAB promo on the Euros looks good, they pay your winnings on the h2h market as euros (basically you get $1.53 for every $1 of winnings upto $50).

That means it will be under a 100% market, or in other words even random bets will be making theoretical profits.

EDIT: Quick modelling, looks like it works out to a 80-85% market. Easy money. Pls don't be pussys who arbitrage their bets and give away some of the easy money. You'd have to be pretty fucking unlucky to not make a profit on this promo.

Edited by Tesla
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What?? That doesnt seem right. Way too easy. Im loading up.

What h2h games you liking Tesla?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

18 hours ago, Tesla said:

Wouldn't mind a wager on Donald Trump at $3.40. But who can be fucked waiting so long for payout.

Had a mate jump on last year @ $26. 

2.5k coming his way I reckon. 

Edited by HeartFc
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15 hours ago, Tesla said:

This TAB promo on the Euros looks good, they pay your winnings on the h2h market as euros (basically you get $1.53 for every $1 of winnings upto $50).

That means it will be under a 100% market, or in other words even random bets will be making theoretical profits.

EDIT: Quick modelling, looks like it works out to a 80-85% market. Easy money. Pls don't be pussys who arbitrage their bets and give away some of the easy money. You'd have to be pretty fucking unlucky to not make a profit on this promo.

If she gets there in form she will be paying a dollar forty at best and maybe a dollar eighty if a good Japanese horse comes... 

So the 3.50 is still better than a $50 bet promotion if she runs second or third.

Edited by cadete
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17 hours ago, Tesla said:

This TAB promo on the Euros looks good, they pay your winnings on the h2h market as euros (basically you get $1.53 for every $1 of winnings upto $50).

That means it will be under a 100% market, or in other words even random bets will be making theoretical profits.

EDIT: Quick modelling, looks like it works out to a 80-85% market. Easy money. Pls don't be pussys who arbitrage their bets and give away some of the easy money. You'd have to be pretty fucking unlucky to not make a profit on this promo.

ahha I'll still arb anyway so I can avoid being banned from ubet or Crown who Ive been smashing a bit this year or try to get unbanned from Ladbrokes or WH.

Cheers for the heads up. 

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1 hour ago, hedaik said:

ahha I'll still arb anyway so I can avoid being banned from ubet or Crown who Ive been smashing a bit this year or try to get unbanned from Ladbrokes or WH.

Cheers for the heads up. 

I doubt crown are banning anyone from their shitty promotions.

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7 minutes ago, Thrillhouse said:

tab only accepts cards for deposits, fucking shits me, most places should accept paypal :droy:

The question is will they pay out 1.53x on just the winnings or the stake and winnings. I was convinced it was the former but hedaik thought it was the latter and after a pretty dodgy response from tab it seems to be the latter but for some reason I still think it's the former (this is a really good promo if it's the latter) 

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2 hours ago, mus-28 said:

Wales $6.00 to beat England. England generally write their own story, losing to Wales after a last minute choke against Russia personifies Hodgsons England.

Yeah ive jumped on that. Iceland have some awesome odds too, I reckon they'll beat both Hungry and Austria. 

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3 hours ago, mus-28 said:

Wales $6.00 to beat England. England generally write their own story, losing to Wales after a last minute choke against Russia personifies Hodgsons England.

No idea why Wales weren't favourite for their first game 

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Seriously I'm proclaiming Wales (or draw) as one of my "I don't give a fuck if they end up losing it is still a good bet" bets, which is basically my highest level of belief in a bet's value.

They're $7 odds, is someone honestly going to tell me that if this game gets played 7 times they won't win at least once? Or that the $2.60ish for wales or a draw is not clearly overs?

They're an underrated team, I was on them in their first game when they where somehow not favourite, and that result and subsequent results has only improved their standing in my mind. Meanwhile England are always so fucking overrated, and their form is hardly convincing after their first game.

Let's also not forget that the two best players on the field will be Welsh players.

Anyone that's getting on England at $1.50 (apart from exploiting TAB promo) should honestly quit gambling. Now that I've said all this England will probably end up winning 4-0, but that doesn't mean it was a good bet and anyone that backs them is still a mug.

Honestly the only thing going against Wales winning this game is that they'll be happy with a draw cause this tournament is retarded and you can qualify from 3rd in the group. There is little reason for them to go for the win. So the draw is probably the better bet, I'll be on both Wales and the draw personally.

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6 minutes ago, Thrillhouse said:

bit of karma, wales deserved nothing

Why not?

Completely deserved the draw in my opinion, a bit mad tbh was gonna be a nice win for me (though I don't lose anything since used the tab promo on England to cover loss). 

You just know it's not going to be your night after something like that, gonna lose on the next two games now.

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1 minute ago, Tesla said:

Why not?

Completely deserved the draw in my opinion, a bit mad tbh was gonna be a nice win for me (though I don't lose anything since used the tab promo on England to cover loss). 

You just know it's not going to be your night after something like that, gonna lose on the next two games now.

score a hit and hope free kick cause gk fucked it up, didn't really have another chance till bale re-appeared after sturridge's goal
parked the bus and had quite a few decisions go their way in the box and just outside

i'm happy i should get a refund on my last sportsbet euro multi now for 2/3 and nice start for tonights multi (eng ukr ger)

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19 minutes ago, Thrillhouse said:

score a hit and hope free kick cause gk fucked it up, didn't really have another chance till bale re-appeared after sturridge's goal
parked the bus and had quite a few decisions go their way in the box and just outside

i'm happy i should get a refund on my last sportsbet euro multi now for 2/3 and nice start for tonights multi (eng ukr ger)

When your as wasteful as England were you don't deserve it either and you invite cheap goals, so a draw would not have been an unfair result. The main problem Wales had is they actually looked really nervous towards the end and showed a lack of experience. As the full time whistle approached they were getting way to defensive and inviting too much pressure and were fucking up their chances to run the ball up the other end of the field and release some pressure.

England might be able to do well going forward in this tournament if the manager makes the appropriate changes, it's pretty obvious a few players need to lose their starting spot. Still they need to stepup a lot to have a chance against the big teams. Can't see them scoring a goal against teams with organised defences. 

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19 minutes ago, Thrillhouse said:

cro $2.10 :hmm:

I backed them. Italy delivered for me again at decent odds so hopefully Croatia continues what's already been a good night.

Only issue is the fucking incentive to play for draws, since 3rd can qualify.

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  • malloy changed the title to Betting/Gambling/Punting Whatever you call itI'mhu

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