Tesla Posted October 3, 2015 Report Share Posted October 3, 2015 I said PPL not me... but thanks for teaching this stuff I had no idea about. Anyway most odds are basically a rough reflection (With some exceptions) of the Boxes the dogs are coming out of anyway.You have misunderstood my post, you brought up the subject of odds reflecting chances and I just added my $0.02 as it's an area I find particularly interesting (and I think it's pretty obvious why, because I am a big believer in the market). I wasn't trying to teach you anything mate.Anyway, on the subject of the betting market and odds, what are peoples thoughts on horses shortening in odds just before a race starts? Obviously there is a bit of a myth that it means something, but my experience, and some quick look at data that I did leads me to believe it's BS. The strange thing is, I actually have reason to believe that a horse increasing in odds before a race is correlated with a greater chance of winning, the problem is it makes no sense and I can't think of any explanation for it so I must be wrong but it's something I might look at in more detail in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 4, 2015 Report Share Posted October 4, 2015 Well one thing that I can say for a fact is that in WFA races (A lot of Classic Races run later in a Season) where as a general rule the best horse normally wins... they usually drift nearing the race as punters look for more value for example PPL spent ages trying to bet against Black Caviar before they gave up.(This less so can also happen when there is a short favourite in an Handicap more likely in Feature Handicaps.)So you can say the betting trends you might be seeing aren't due to late proper knowledge but more a bit of mug punting and PPL just chasing better odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFCRC Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 Much better day Saturday.. Winx did it for me. She's an absolute freak.. 3 wide (with cover though) the whole way and nearly fell on the bend.. won in a canter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 Much better day Saturday.. Winx did it for me. She's an absolute freak.. 3 wide (with cover though) the whole way and nearly fell on the bend.. won in a canter. Good win but the Epsom really is not what it once was... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 Well one thing that I can say for a fact is that in WFA races (A lot of Classic Races run later in a Season) where as a general rule the best horse normally wins... they usually drift nearing the race as punters look for more value for example PPL spent ages trying to bet against Black Caviar before they gave up.(This less so can also happen when there is a short favourite in an Handicap more likely in Feature Handicaps.)So you can say the betting trends you might be seeing aren't due to late proper knowledge but more a bit of mug punting and PPL just chasing better odds.Yes that makes sense, I have noticed it's quite common for the next best chances to shorten with the favourite drifting, with no evidence that it means anything.The other explanation I thought maybe made some sense, is that perhaps those with 'inside knowledge' are not in a position to place a bet late and are doing so earlier in the day. So that inside information is hitting the market earlier, reducing the odds of a horse, and then other punters are seeing that horse as under odds and so it drifts as the day progresses. But I don't really know, it seems a pretty weak explanation in the era of smartphones when you can place a bet quickly, easily, and wherever you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFCRC Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) Good win but the Epsom really is not what it once was... yeah Sadler's Lake as the second fav said a lot to me. She beat them like she should, being a very very good horse. Edited October 5, 2015 by MHFCRC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) Much better day Saturday.. Winx did it for me. She's an absolute freak.. 3 wide (with cover though) the whole way and nearly fell on the bend.. won in a canter. Every race (except like 1?) was won by a favourite, it was boring. I backed a few so it was okay as I was up a little bit, but still boring. Edited October 5, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 5, 2015 Report Share Posted October 5, 2015 yeah Sadler's Lake as the second fav said a lot to me. She beat them like she should, being a very very good horse. I think the point is she is not a horse and the ease in which she won is what indicates the quality of field, in the past very few mares have won the race and I might proven wrong and she could be a Sunline or whatever but it's def not the race it was ten years ago.Yes that makes sense, I have noticed it's quite common for the next best chances to shorten with the favourite drifting, with no evidence that it means anything.The other explanation I thought maybe made some sense, is that perhaps those with 'inside knowledge' are not in a position to place a bet late and are doing so earlier in the day. So that inside information is hitting the market earlier, reducing the odds of a horse, and then other punters are seeing that horse as under odds and so it drifts as the day progresses. But I don't really know, it seems a pretty weak explanation in the era of smartphones when you can place a bet quickly, easily, and wherever you are.The big money players (Those in legitimate lines of business and those who are a bit less legitimate) dont go through the Corporates/TAB, they have their own arrangements with individual bookmakers where they will get special odds and their business is kept out of the limelight. The whole Ladbrokes Cash In thing is trying to capture the smaller players who do as such.Anyway these PPL will only jump on late when they have as much information as possible and to cause the least amount of attention to themselves in the yard and in the market. Of course once they bet via phone (or often through an employee) with a minute to go at the track the Bookmaker or his Rep On Course will change their odds accordingly as will most of the other Bookmakers/Corporates will when they see the numbers change.There is even an Official who stands on a podium in the Members Bookmakers Ring looking for these types of plunges in case anything illegal is going on prior to a race.Probably the best example is the arrangement Kerry Packer had with Tom Waterhouse's Grandfather which was Packer could always lay: Any bet he wanted of any size on anything and he bet unbelievable sums. The arrangement worked out well for Waterhouse because he always had a steady cash flow and knew Packer was such a competitive beast he would always eventually make it back of him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimey Posted October 7, 2015 Report Share Posted October 7, 2015 About to sign up for William Hill. Is there a refer a friend offer?If so, pm me your code. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 (edited) Tempted to put $1k on West Sydney tonight at $2.15 or w/e.I obviously won't, and it is the first round on the season so no form to go off, and it is the A-League where results are random AF, but pretty damn confident for a $2.15 bet.TAB giving bonus bet if game ends in draw if you bet on result market. Ubet have cash back if game ends in a draw if you bet correct score. Might do like $50 on WSW at TAB and $20 on WSW 1-0 at ubet (depending on odds on the correct score market).EDIT: crownbet boost $3 for WSW 630pm-730pm, that will do nicely. Edited October 8, 2015 by Tesla 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 $3 for Wanderers is incredible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 Also took Wanderers 2-0 at $9.50 odds (was $10 and changed just as I placed my bet ffs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 And that why you dont put 1k CS Go World championship, kyrgyzstan $3, starts in 15 minutes get on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 CS Go World championship, kyrgyzstan $3, starts in 15 minutes get on it.ez money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted October 8, 2015 Report Share Posted October 8, 2015 loving how WH live call soccer matched bonus bet (max50) got extended, brisbane comfortably got up and singapore held on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 What do people think about tonight's game? Would actually lean towards Adelaide TBH but Galekovic is a big out and dont want to get rolled by shit goalkeeping like last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 What do people think about tonight's game? Would actually lean towards Adelaide TBH but Galekovic is a big out and dont want to get rolled by shit goalkeeping like last night.Victory have had a pretty uninterrupted preseason campaign and are at full strength tonight I think? Adelaide are missing a couple and have Babalj and Dugandzic...But ALeague is a lottery at the best of times let alone the first game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 MV to win...I have other stuff to do tomorrow so I probably will not bet or not much but these are what I like: Bon Aurum in the Guineas: Has already won from behind at the Heath and will cover the distance plus the favourite is from Sydney as impressive as he has been. Pasadena Girl: Was murdered by Duric last time over the 1400 metres, she gets Bowman on board this time and better suited distance where she probably find herself out of trouble if it comes her way. Of course she is yet to win as a three year old but she only featured late in the Autumn so the ability probably still is there. Place bet on Black Tomahawk: This horse always pays at least 3-1 for a place (Currently you can get fives) and basically delivers 4/5 times on running in the first three. I know this is a Group One but it's still an Handicap so it is not like he taking on horses that only run in WFA races. And I have no idea with the Caulfield Stakes except to say it’s the best field that we have seen line up in a WFA race in probably a year and a half with saying that unless someone wins this race well I will be most likely like last year looking at the Internationals very closely for the Cox Plate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) Victory have had a pretty uninterrupted preseason campaign and are at full strength tonight I think? Adelaide are missing a couple and have Babalj and Dugandzic...But ALeague is a lottery at the best of times let alone the first game. They have a couple outs, leaving their defence looking a bit weak.Victory haven't won the last 7 times they've travelled to Adelaide and something is telling me they won't again. Draw looking like a decent bet TBH.The crowd will be really fired up, amplifying the home advantage, probably why Victory have a poor record over there.Dunno just don't think Victory will win even though everyone else seems to think they will. But what do I know, I got destroyed last night. Edited October 9, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 put $50 worth of bonus bets from all these WH promos on a 2-2 draw at $13 odds. May the gambling gods smile down on me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 9, 2015 Report Share Posted October 9, 2015 (edited) Pretty average result, made too many bets on one game.Lost $50 bonus bets on 2-2 drawLost $25 bonus bets on Babalj first goalscorerWon $125 off $50 bonus bet on Draw.Lost $25 cash on Adelaide 2-1 but got refunded for it ending in a draw (ubet)Lost $50 on Adelaide but got $50 bonus bet for it ending in draw (tab). So $125 bonus bets and $50 cash spent for $125 cash and $50 bonus bets won lol. I value bonus bets at 65% of face value so $131.25 lost and 157.50 won. Others dont value bonus bets as anything so in that case you could look at it as $50 lost and $125 won Edited October 9, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 100 on Amavatio, 40 on amralah, life is good. Up about $500.Probably will take those Cad tips from above and hopefully things get even better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 CCM vs Perth probably the toughest game yet to pick but Perth should be good enough even away from home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 Round 1 lottery. Sydney in the next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFCRC Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 Amovatio and Stay with Me made for another successful Saturday 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 With great promotions from every Corporate and the fact SP prices are around 110% there is absolutely no reason why every punter should be returning a profit over the next month of Saturdays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 10, 2015 Report Share Posted October 10, 2015 With great promotions from every Corporate and the fact SP prices are around 110% there is absolutely no reason why every punter should be returning a profit over the next month of Saturdays.Exactly this, you could profit just by doing max bet on the favourite every race that has refund for 2nd and 3rd (and 4th some times).Today things definitely went really well for me on the races, but I still wouldn't have had much profit without the refunds, they make a huge difference.Winning money on the races and losing it on soccer, often it's the opposite Anyone notice these premium price things WH has on the greyhounds sometimes, where they take like a $1.40 favourite and give $2 if it finishes first or 2nd? Basically it seems too good to be true, bet on it like 5-6 times so far, and haven't won a single time. Somehow this $1.40 or w/e dog always ends up 3rd or 4th. Surely too many times now to be a coincidence, next time I see it I'm betting on some $10 dog in that race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartFc Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Big week on the punt for me. Just under 5k banked 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Couldn't get anytime to bet on Saturday which was a bonus cos none of my horses won. Looking forward to a Big One this weekend, apparently "T-Bone Tomby" may have even decided to buy a new suit - Thank fuck... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomby Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 (edited) Couldn't get anytime to bet on Saturday which was a bonus cos none of my horses won. Looking forward to a Big One this weekend, apparently "T-Bone Tomby" may have even decided to buy a new suit - Thank fuck... Not much different to the other one, just another black pinstriped suit that's 2 sizes to big for me. Edited October 12, 2015 by tomby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looks like WH have gotten over giving away free money. Dunno why they invested so heavily in promoting their in-play betting when their click to call is so fucking shit. It did lead to me making more in play betting, but at bet365 instead where the click to call works way better and they have 10 times the markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted October 12, 2015 Report Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looks like WH have gotten over giving away free money. Dunno why they invested so heavily in promoting their in-play betting when their click to call is so fucking shit. It did lead to me making more in play betting, but at bet365 instead where the click to call works way better and they have 10 times the markets.yeh think they've stopped the mlb and nfl money back promos, did have rugby wc and soccer live bet bonus promos,used a $50 bonus on austria,switzerland,slovenia,slovakia,england and sweden @3.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 Just signed up to Ladbrokes. Decent promotions throughout the spring. Pretty keen on Boom Time tomorrow, step up to 2000m will really suit 1 from 17 obviously aren't the best stats but has a fair bit of upside and gets in 1kg above the minimum for a black type winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 (edited) Looks like WH still giving away easy money, they replaced the soccer offer with a cricket one.Also got emails today telling me I'm banned from promos at centrebet and tom waterhouse, AFAIK I was already banned from promotions at Tom Waterhouse lol but okay. No shit I'm only going to only take advantage of promos at those two when it's the exact same markets and odds at WH, I have no reason to make normal bets at those two. Edited October 13, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 (edited) BTW if you guys hadn't noticed you would have got 5000 crownbet reward points this month, if you're not signed up to the rewards program (only like 2 clicks if you already have crownbet account ) if you do it this month you still get it.IMO use the points on a $50 crown gift card and not a $50 bonus bet. I value a $50 bonus bet at $35 max, whereas a crown gift card isn't really worth $50 either but still it can go towards a nice dinner or some drinks so the better option if you ask me. I'd rather ball at Nobu then throw away the bonus bet on a horse race tbh. Edited October 13, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrillhouse Posted October 13, 2015 Report Share Posted October 13, 2015 BTW if you guys hadn't noticed you would have got 5000 crownbet reward points this month, if you're not signed up to the rewards program (only like 2 clicks if you already have crownbet account ) if you do it this month you still get it.IMO use the points on a $50 crown gift card and not a $50 bonus bet. I value a $50 bonus bet at $35 max, whereas a crown gift card isn't really worth $50 either but still it can go towards a nice dinner or some drinks so the better option if you ask me. I'd rather ball at Nobu then throw away the bonus bet on a horse race tbh. used the 5000 points on the gift card and gave it to mum, definitely the #1 child Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheepdog Posted October 14, 2015 Report Share Posted October 14, 2015 used the 5000 points on the gift card and gave it to mum, definitely the #1 childI gave it to your mum too. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 14, 2015 Report Share Posted October 14, 2015 BTW if you guys hadn't noticed you would have got 5000 crownbet reward points this month, if you're not signed up to the rewards program (only like 2 clicks if you already have crownbet account ) if you do it this month you still get it.IMO use the points on a $50 crown gift card and not a $50 bonus bet. I value a $50 bonus bet at $35 max, whereas a crown gift card isn't really worth $50 either but still it can go towards a nice dinner or some drinks so the better option if you ask me. I'd rather ball at Nobu then throw away the bonus bet on a horse race tbh. i work opposite crown so I'm just going to get some chips out of it then return them back for $50 on my lunch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 14, 2015 Report Share Posted October 14, 2015 (edited) i work opposite crown so I'm just going to get some chips out of it then return them back for $50 on my lunch Pretty sure you can't use it for that, it's for hotel/restaurant/shops/etc, not gambling.Just go get a burger from Merrywell a couple time for lunch Edited October 14, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 14, 2015 Report Share Posted October 14, 2015 Finally got my new Ladbrokes card for Saturday...That run in the last furlough against the WFA horses from Mongolian Khan was bloody impressive... I reckon it's between him and the Japanese horse for the Cup I just want to do some my research on the Japanese horse's form at WFA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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