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Betting/Gambling/Punting Whatever you call it


MaliMate
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So been trying to find a way of basically finding odds that are going to shorten so I'm ending up getting over the odds, because if I can get over the odds significantly enough (has to be a fair bit over given how high the margin is on horse racing) then I'm going to profit on average without even trying to pick a winner.

I've come up with a few different systems, they mostly seem ok but not good enough, but this one I tried today looks promising.

Bet on the first 4 races at Dubbo today, won all 4 but that's probably just luck, the important thing is the odds I got.

Race 1 = SP = 1.50, Top Tote = 1.70, Tesla Odds = $3.01. Tesla odds = Top Tote + 187%

Race 2 - SP = 3.60, Top Tote = 4.00, Tesla Odds = 4.8. Tesla odds = Top Tote + 27%

Race 3 - SP =3.20, Top Tote = 3.70, Tesla odds = 4.40. Tesla odds = Top Tote + 26%

Race 4 - SP = 3.50, Top Tote = 3.50, Tesla odds = 5.72. Tesla Odds = top tote + 89%

I also bet on 2 races at Pakenham, lost both of those but one did  end up shorter like the above but the other actually went the other way, which is going to happen can't have a 100% accurate system.

Will see if this continues, maybe give it a go again in a couple of days.

Going to end up getting banned for this as getting in on higher odds before they shorten consistently is the quickest way of getting banned from what i've heard, and it makes sense. Not doing this on any of the sites with good promos so I dont care if I get banned anyway. 

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So been trying to find a way of basically finding odds that are going to shorten so I'm ending up getting over the odds, because if I can get over the odds significantly enough (has to be a fair bit over given how high the margin is on horse racing) then I'm going to profit on average without even trying to pick a winner.

I've come up with a few different systems, they mostly seem ok but not good enough, but this one I tried today looks promising.

Bet on the first 4 races at Dubbo today, won all 4 but that's probably just luck, the important thing is the odds I got.

Race 1 = SP = 1.50, Top Tote = 1.70, Tesla Odds = $3.01. Tesla odds = Top Tote + 187%

Race 2 - SP = 3.60, Top Tote = 4.00, Tesla Odds = 4.8. Tesla odds = Top Tote + 27%

Race 3 - SP =3.20, Top Tote = 3.70, Tesla odds = 4.40. Tesla odds = Top Tote + 26%

Race 4 - SP = 3.50, Top Tote = 3.50, Tesla odds = 5.72. Tesla Odds = top tote + 89%

I also bet on 2 races at Pakenham, lost both of those but one did  end up shorter like the above but the other actually went the other way, which is going to happen can't have a 100% accurate system.

Will see if this continues, maybe give it a go again in a couple of days.

Going to end up getting banned for this as getting in on higher odds before they shorten consistently is the quickest way of getting banned from what i've heard, and it makes sense. Not doing this on any of the sites with good promos so I dont care if I get banned anyway. 

im presuming your not given anything away about your system? Who are you betting with? With precise odds like $3.01 and $5.72 im presuming betfair?

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im presuming your not given anything away about your system? Who are you betting with? With precise odds like $3.01 and $5.72 im presuming betfair?

Those two were affected by deductions (due to scratchings), that's why they are a strange number.

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Those two were affected by deductions (due to scratchings), that's why they are a strange number.

Well id back myself to advise if your system has any merit more then most. Really 99.9% of systems are flawed. Curious to know how you gor better then $3 on a horse that had a top fluc of $2 as in race 1.

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Well id back myself to advise if your system has any merit more then most. Really 99.9% of systems are flawed. Curious to know how you gor better then $3 on a horse that had a top fluc of $2 as in race 1.

PM incoming :up:

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Ffs hate when late goals fuck my correct score bet up. Will collect another refund from sportsbet though for being off by only 1 goal. 

Double annoying cause I wanted to get on the WH 4 or more goals promo but I left it too late it was finished when I checked for it before kick off. 

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Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but when you sign up for Ladbrokes you get a free bet up to $100 as they match your first bet. Are you allowed to put two separate bets on the same match? For example gws vs geelong this week, gws are about $1.80 and geelong are $2. If I put my first bet of $100 on gws, they give me a $100 free bet so if I put that on geelong, I've got 100 on both but only spending 100 of my money. So if Geelong win I make $100 and if gws win I make $80. Would this work?

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Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but when you sign up for Ladbrokes you get a free bet up to $100 as they match your first bet. Are you allowed to put two separate bets on the same match? For example gws vs geelong this week, gws are about $1.80 and geelong are $2. If I put my first bet of $100 on gws, they give me a $100 free bet so if I put that on geelong, I've got 100 on both but only spending 100 of my money. So if Geelong win I make $100 and if gws win I make $80. Would this work?

It will be in the terms and conditions that you aren't allowed to use the free bet to facilitate an arbitrage whereby you profit in every scenario. So to answer your question, no you can't do that.

if the issue is that you don't want to bet $100 on one thing, and you haven't signed up already, if I refer you then the signup offer is better, they match your first deposit rather than first bet, and it's up to $300 as well I think, so you don't need to bet $100 on any one thing, can just deposit $x and then bet like $20 on a bunch of things or w/e you want to do instead of risking it on one bet.

 

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It will be in the terms and conditions that you aren't allowed to use the free bet to facilitate an arbitrage whereby you profit in every scenario. So to answer your question, no you can't do that.

if the issue is that you don't want to bet $100 on one thing, and you haven't signed up already, if I refer you then the signup offer is better, they match your first deposit rather than first bet, and it's up to $300 as well I think, so you don't need to bet $100 on any one thing, can just deposit $x and then bet like $20 on a bunch of things or w/e you want to do instead of risking it on one bet.

 

Oh okay thanks, and nah it's alright I already signed up I was just wondering if it would work so then I would make a new account and make an easy profit

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Oh okay thanks, and nah it's alright I already signed up I was just wondering if it would work so then I would make a new account and make an easy profit

Nothing stopping you arbitraging the first bet somewhere else. Eg bet $100 at Ladbrokes on one outcome, and then bet on the other outcome somewhere else. Will probably only cost you a few dollars and then you get a $100 bonus bet. You can also arbitrage the bonus bet and should be able to make at least $60 from it.

But that's no fun :up:

btw your first post was wrong, you would make $80 if Geelong win and break even if GWS win. you don't get your stake back with a freebet. So you spend $100, get $180 if Geelong win ($80 profit), but only $100 if GWS win ($0 profit).

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Also saw I had a random $5 bonus bet at centrebet, put it on an $11 horse in the UK and easy $50.

So getting banned across the William Hill websites soon, from promotions at least.

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Just started using 365 again. hands down most addictive sports betting site of all time. Lost close to $100 this week from being a degenerate cunt. They've lobbed me 3 free bets already which I've pissed away.

dem live system multis through click to call but. Shits like heroin for me. And the ability to cash out a % of your bet rather than the whole thing is mint. I recommend 365 but not if your an impulsive type like myself.

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@Tesla Are you doing the william hill friday night click to call money back promo?

storm look like the best choice 

Id prefer to use the bet for something paying in the vicinity of $2 to make it worthwhile, problem with the AFL game tonight is that I have no idea what Richmond are going to produce. They've been playing a scrappy defensive game lately, but I don't think thats going to work against Hawthorn....however on the other hand Richmond have a good history of beating Hawthorn and I also think after a run of good games Hawks are due for a tough game. 

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Got a $200 free bet that il be putting on Adelaide to beat Sydney tomorrow @ $3. Really think the swans are struggling atm.

While on the topic of freebets and $3 odds.

protip: never use a bonus bet on less than $3 odds.

cbf explaining why now, but just trust me guys :up:

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@Tesla Are you doing the william hill friday night click to call money back promo?

storm look like the best choice 

Its for your first losing bet, better of making a lot of short term bets until you lose rather than just 1, which is going to be a pain in the arse for me as I'll be at the MCG tonight. 

 

edit: apparently the above is not the case

Edited by hedaik
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I tried to put my click to call bet on Richmond for first goal but reception was fucked at the ground and couldn't do it in time.

Ended up doing hawthorn last score of 1st qtr but lost.  

Still made money from hedging my Ladbrokes net though .

Edited by hedaik
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Got my refund and ended up getting a bonus bet too.

Lost the bonus bet anyway.

Hah sick just noticed a bonus bet as well. 

edit: 17 mins til next greyhound race...will just use it tomorrow instead. 

edit edit: Decided to put it all on #3 Mandurah Race 11

edit edit edit: fuckin dog cunt

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The dude is a serious businessman.

TTDIM: the packer family

I think Tripp still runs the show, Tripp + the resources of Crown/Packer and this is what happens.

Good to see, they are the only serious Australian owned operator.

I also have a soft spot for them for all the money they have given me, I'm confident I have won the most at beteasy/crownbet out of all the others :up:

Plus they have the best app and close to the best site.

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I think Tripp still runs the show, Tripp + the resources of Crown/Packer and this is what happens.

Good to see, they are the only serious Australian owned operator.

I also have a soft spot for them for all the money they have given me, I'm confident I have won the most at beteasy/crownbet out of all the others :up:

Plus they have the best app and close to the best site.

Don't understand what you like about their app. 365, Sportsbet, WH Ladbrokes. & even TAB are better IMO.

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Finally CrownBet card :clap: :clap: :clap:

The sexy baller black colour will only further the gambling CEO feeling that the other cards give when using them.\

Seems to be the best one feature wise as well, I don't think the Ladbrokes one lets you use it like a credit card (to buy things online, but more importantly to deposit straight into another bookmaker :up:), AFAIK the 'credit' features are limited to using paywave.

 

Don't understand what you like about their app. 365, Sportsbet, WH Ladbrokes. & even TAB are better IMO.

Best in terms of design if you ask me (both visual design and UI/UX design).

Not sure what you like so much about the others?

Don't have the 365 app, that may be better.

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  • malloy changed the title to Betting/Gambling/Punting Whatever you call itI'mhu

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