MaliMate Posted March 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Feeling patriotic so just put a live bet on the Socceroos, thought $2.90 was too good for a team leading with 35 to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 26, 2015 Report Share Posted March 26, 2015 Picked up Steve Smith top run scorer for Australia, $100.Looking good for the Australia win as well.FWIW, had a look, and turns out the lead doesn't change much in AFL games. And if it does, that doesnt necessarily correspond with the end of a quarter. It's been years since I followed AFL but my memory was that it changed a lot more than it actually does.As always, Sportsbet on point with their promos, always seem a lot better than they actually are.Still going to place some small bets just to give me a reason to follow it this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted March 26, 2015 Report Share Posted March 26, 2015 Picked up Steve Smith top run scorer for Australia, $100. Looking good for the Australia win as well. FWIW, had a look, and turns out the lead doesn't change much in AFL games. And if it does, that doesnt necessarily correspond with the end of a quarter. It's been years since I followed AFL but my memory was that it changed a lot more than it actually does. As always, Sportsbet on point with their promos, always seem a lot better than they actually are. Still going to place some small bets just to give me a reason to follow it this season. Last season between rounds 1-8 AFL matches changed leaders between quarters in 36% of matches. These markets are set well under 110%. Therefore, the odds are clearly in punters favour. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 26, 2015 Report Share Posted March 26, 2015 Picked up Steve Smith top run scorer for Australia, $100. Looking good for the Australia win as well. FWIW, had a look, and turns out the lead doesn't change much in AFL games. And if it does, that doesnt necessarily correspond with the end of a quarter. It's been years since I followed AFL but my memory was that it changed a lot more than it actually does. As always, Sportsbet on point with their promos, always seem a lot better than they actually are. Still going to place some small bets just to give me a reason to follow it this season. Last season between rounds 1-8 AFL matches changed leaders between quarters in 36% of matches. These markets are set well under 110%. Therefore, the odds are clearly in punters favour. I picked some random rounds to look at from last year and it only seemed 1 or 2 games changed between quarters. Must have picked bad rounds. Initially I was thinking what you are, that the odds are in the punters favour here so even if I just put random bets on I'll make a profit over the course of the 8 rounds, glad you've confirmed that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted March 26, 2015 Report Share Posted March 26, 2015 Winx on Saturday... Got a good feeling about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 26, 2015 Report Share Posted March 26, 2015 Fucking Michael Clarke, if he held that I also would have gotten top batsmen in the Indian innings with Dhawan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted March 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) Sportsbet cash out is fucked. Has to be some sort of glitch. I put $10 on a 15 leg multi (lol so wot cunt?) paying $32. Got all the heavy favourites in the Euro qualifiers this morning and tomorrow. Was thinking of taking the $50 they were offering me as Sweden was up 1-0 and I was scared they would cop a late goal. Zlatan doubles the lead and my cash out goes to $26 from $50? All the other teams I had were leading by 2 or more without much time left so couldn't have been the issue. Edit - Put $12 on it actually, thought it was $10 Edited March 28, 2015 by MaliMate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Sportsbet cash out is fucked. Has to be some sort of glitch. I put $10 on a 15 leg multi (lol so wot cunt?) paying $32. Got all the heavy favourites in the Euro qualifiers this morning and tomorrow. Was thinking of taking the $50 they were offering me as Sweden was up 1-0 and I was scared they would cop a late goal. Zlatan doubles the lead and my cash out goes to $26 from $50? All the other teams I had were leading by 2 or more without much time left so couldn't have been the issue.I thought it doesnt work live at all from what I'd seen, only good for in between legs of a multi.But the fact you got a price at all suggests it does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomby Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 It works good for me but when they offer me a good price I don't take it because I'm a greedy cunt and then when my multi loses I'm mad because I didn't take what they offered ffs. Can't win in this gambling business. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Officially back, $30 on Medcaut TT+ so should be $210 payout I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 I wonder how long it will be until I start getting banned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomby Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Come today Tesla and we'll gamble on Ipswich greyhounds with Hackett. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Come today Tesla and we'll gamble on Ipswich greyhounds with Hackett.I'm gonna have to do some tombe/sikre specials if I bet on greyhounds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted March 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 So 4 legs left, Melbourne City, Belgium, Bosnia & Australia in the cricket. Original odds $27.71, current odds $3.07. Offering me $94 as a cash out, tempted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomby Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 So 4 legs left, Melbourne City, Belgium, Bosnia & Australia in the cricket. Original odds $27.71, current odds $3.07. Offering me $94 as a cash out, tempted. Take that. New Zealand will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 (edited) Banca Mo..... really thought Tassies stayers at the moment were decent. Massive overs today. Edited March 28, 2015 by HeartinHobart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 had $20 on Perth 3-2 at $21, $420 return. Had 2 other $30 bets as well, one on first goal scorer and another on win & score combo, lost those. But still a $340 profit. Plus have Perth in a multi so that's looking good too.Best bit is that I wrote it off at 1-1 and didnt continue to watch the match, only for tomby to text me the good news while he is mad as fuck that I always win and he cant win a bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 (edited) tbh I just post in this thread to troll cadete, tomby, etc. but since cunts were asking me for my tips today (i guess since posting the multi photo) I'll actually start posting what I bet on for a little while and see how it goes. The reason I dont post what I bet on is because every time I have done so I end up losing and so I have a superstition (even though I know its retarded).The one thing I'm eyeing off right now is Australia paying $2.40 to beat Macedonia, this is one of the most retarded things I've seen in my whole time gambling. Seriously should be like $1.50. I think the odds are so high because Skopje is generally a fortress, Macedonia have knocked off many big teams there, and only conceded 3 goals once in the last 9 years there, and that one time was against Spain. But Macedonia is probably at it's lowest point ever right now, and they have a fairly second string line-up called up. Combined with how Australia played last time out, I'm pretty confident here.Anyway, what I'm saying is this is about as secure as a $1.50 bet, so certainly worth a punt at $2.40.I also think 2-0 is a likely score if you want a bit more risk/reward. Edited March 28, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 oh and yes, I do realise I'm an absolute cunt, and I'd hate me too if I wasnt me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 28, 2015 Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Italy is good value against Bulgaria, $1.90+. But I got on Italy by exactly 1 goal @ $3.55 because you guys know I'm a cunt that needs a bit more payoff than $1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted March 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Lol, just looked at Italy's XI, absolute gash. 0 shots on target Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted March 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2015 Offering me $201 as a cash out, thinking I should take that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Finch top scorer for Australia, $4.75Starc top wicket taker for Australia, $3.00Not ridiculously confident on either but worth a punt.Have Wellington and Adelaide in my multi (alongside Melobourne City and Perth Glory who won already), I'm pretty confident they'll both do the job and the A-League is really my main area of expertise, I'm fucked when the season is over.I fucked up cause I had Victory in another multi with EPL games, and then I realised those games are next week and cashed it out after Victory won. Imagine I had Victory in my multi with the other A-league games, would be a nice boost to the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Does any site have a marker for making A-League finals? I want to get on Brisbane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted March 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 I'm gonna get on Finch aswell (y), maybe even a fiver on man of the match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) I'm gonna get on Finch aswell (y), maybe even a fiver on man of the match?Australia will win so you'd think he is a good chance. But Starc could tear them to shreds and claim it, 5 wickets will beat pretty much any realistic batting score I think. Crownbet have a promo if you bet on top run scorer for Australia you get a free bet on top wicket taker for Australia. So if you're getting on Finch for top run scorer might be worth doing it via them. Though I noticed Sportsbet have 5 for him while it's 4.75 at Crownbet. Plus you have the refund if he scores a six at sportsbet. Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted March 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Live NCAA bets while in hospital #degenerate. Up the Wildcats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) Just did a multi (again, only because it's a cash refund if 1 leg fails, with unibet you get 1 a week on any sports bets, as opposed to the sportsbet one where its a-league epl games)Australia against NZAustralia against MacedoniaBrazil against ChileAlbania against Aremnia9.55 not bad.Am starting to see the appeal of this multi shit TBH. Still wouldn't do it without something a little extra on offer (like a refund, or sometimes they give like 20% extra winnings, etc.) Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theresonlyonebzamora Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Had Mexico/Socceroos/Germany/Wellington Sydney draw using the William Hill bonus bet. Although now Riera has been sent off pretty much no chance of Wellington getting 3 in 15 mins. Portugal @ 1.57 against Serbia is interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Portugal @ 1.57 against Serbia is interesting. No it fucking isn't. That's a tomby bet, 1.57 when Serbia could easily sneak a draw or worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theresonlyonebzamora Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Lol tomby bet hahaha. I do have my doubts so I steered clear. Not cause Serbia are that good but Portugal are excellent at not showing up. Are Chile any good now? Paying 3.50 for a draw against Brazil. GOAT better Tesla pls respond Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special. Someone has a free guess on round 1 results, think for a share of 500k. You have to pick all 9. No risk, easier to pick, and still a decent return. It's either sportsbet or Ladbrokes, don't remember. Had a crack for lols. Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special. Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) Lol tomby bet hahaha. I do have my doubts so I steered clear. Not cause Serbia are that good but Portugal are excellent at not showing up. Are Chile any good now? Paying 3.50 for a draw against Brazil. GOAT better Tesla pls respond It's a friendly so anything can happen, but Brazil are in their best form in a very long time, if you notice above I've included them in a multi. So you'd be essentially betting against me. Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Fuck off Faulkner, save some wickets for Starc you cunts. Fucking Clarke always trolling me. Glad he's gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartFc Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 Fkn poo game, go home ya shit cunts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartFc Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special. Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion. Yes but the likely hood of picking 18 isnt just based on randomness. You have some knowledge of the top 8 based on the teams ability so I reckon its more like 100 million to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special. Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion. I think you're missing a few zeros there. It's actually over 1 million times more unlikely than 1 in 6bn. Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special. Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion. Yes but the likely hood of picking 18 isnt just based on randomness. You have some knowledge of the top 8 based on the teams ability so I reckon its more like 100 million to 1 Yeah, you more or less know where everyone will finish within four or five places. I'd love to see the equations that people (Tesla plz) could come up with to determine the true odds of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.