Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special.Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion.Yes but the likely hood of picking 18 isnt just based on randomness. You have some knowledge of the top 8 based on the teams ability so I reckon its more like 100 million to 1Yeah, you more or less know where everyone will finish within four or five places. I'd love to see the equations that people (Tesla plz) could come up with to determine the true odds of this.It's pretty simple, it's just 18! (unless I'm missing something) Given that there are 9 numbers of 10 or more being multiplied, and then another 9 numbers, it's definitely beyond the billions. 6.4 quadrillion according to the google calculator. Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special.Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion.Yes but the likely hood of picking 18 isnt just based on randomness. You have some knowledge of the top 8 based on the teams ability so I reckon its more like 100 million to 1Yeah, you more or less know where everyone will finish within four or five places. I'd love to see the equations that people (Tesla plz) could come up with to determine the true odds of this.It's pretty simple, it's just 18! (unless I'm missing something) Given that there are 9 numbers of 10 or more being multiplied, and then another 9 numbers, it's definitely beyond the billions. 6.4 quadrillion according to the google calculator. As HeartFc said the probability of picking who finishes top is better then a 1 in 18 chance. I estimated it to be 1 in 3. Each position is different and obviously it's easier to pick 1st then say 10th. It's something that's quite hard to explain of a soccer forum but even if you were a 50 50 chance of picking each position correctly it's chances are still 1 in 130000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 (edited) William Hill giving $100Million to anyone that can correctly guess the order of afl ladder. $5 per entry. Essentially just like buying a lotto ticket but is a pretty cool little special.Had a little look at this and did some numbers on it. I estimated the likelihood of tipping all 18 in the correct order to be around 1 in 6 billion.Yes but the likely hood of picking 18 isnt just based on randomness. You have some knowledge of the top 8 based on the teams ability so I reckon its more like 100 million to 1Yeah, you more or less know where everyone will finish within four or five places. I'd love to see the equations that people (Tesla plz) could come up with to determine the true odds of this.It's pretty simple, it's just 18! (unless I'm missing something) Given that there are 9 numbers of 10 or more being multiplied, and then another 9 numbers, it's definitely beyond the billions. 6.4 quadrillion according to the google calculator. As HeartFc said the probability of picking who finishes top is better then a 1 in 18 chance. I estimated it to be 1 in 3. Each position is different and obviously it's easier to pick 1st then say 10th. It's something that's quite hard to explain of a soccer forum but even if you were a 50 50 chance of picking each position correctly it's chances are still 1 in 130000 You're right, the number I quoted is just for a random guess of each. Your post seemed like that's how you got your 1 in 6bn number. To actually calculate it in a way that's even remotely accurate is a lot of calculations TBH. Edited March 29, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheepdog Posted March 29, 2015 Report Share Posted March 29, 2015 The correct answer is - no chance 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFCRC Posted March 30, 2015 Report Share Posted March 30, 2015 http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/sports-novelties/wwe $2.20 Rollins to Cash-In @ Wrestlemania & Triple H $5 to beat Sting probably worth something small. Will keep an eye on rumours as crazy stuff has happened before with Wrestling odds as I've mentioned previously in this thread. (Most notably Brock Lesnar coming from $41 into $1.01 before last years Wrestlemania. Not bad, not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 30, 2015 Report Share Posted March 30, 2015 Just did a multi (again, only because it's a cash refund if 1 leg fails, with unibet you get 1 a week on any sports bets, as opposed to the sportsbet one where its a-league epl games)Australia against NZAustralia against MacedoniaBrazil against ChileAlbania against Aremnia9.55 not bad.Am starting to see the appeal of this multi shit TBH. Still wouldn't do it without something a little extra on offer (like a refund, or sometimes they give like 20% extra winnings, etc.)Go the Socceroos, get me that cash money.Fucking snowballing, if I pick this win up too then I've reached another level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 30, 2015 Report Share Posted March 30, 2015 The one thing I'm eyeing off right now is Australia paying $2.40 to beat Macedonia, this is one of the most retarded things I've seen in my whole time gambling. Seriously should be like $1.50. I think the odds are so high because Skopje is generally a fortress, Macedonia have knocked off many big teams there, and only conceded 3 goals once in the last 9 years there, and that one time was against Spain. But Macedonia is probably at it's lowest point ever right now, and they have a fairly second string line-up called up. Combined with how Australia played last time out, I'm pretty confident here.Anyway, what I'm saying is this is about as secure as a $1.50 bet, so certainly worth a punt at $2.40.I also think 2-0 is a likely score if you want a bit more risk/reward.Interesting that it's hard to find even $1.90 for Australia now, really came down a lot from $2.40.Chucked some money on Australia 2-0 and Australia 2-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carlings Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 (edited) The one thing I'm eyeing off right now is Australia paying $2.40 to beat Macedonia, this is one of the most retarded things I've seen in my whole time gambling. Seriously should be like $1.50. I think the odds are so high because Skopje is generally a fortress, Macedonia have knocked off many big teams there, and only conceded 3 goals once in the last 9 years there, and that one time was against Spain. But Macedonia is probably at it's lowest point ever right now, and they have a fairly second string line-up called up. Combined with how Australia played last time out, I'm pretty confident here. Anyway, what I'm saying is this is about as secure as a $1.50 bet, so certainly worth a punt at $2.40. I also think 2-0 is a likely score if you want a bit more risk/reward. Interesting that it's hard to find even $1.90 for Australia now, really came down a lot from $2.40. Chucked some money on Australia 2-0 and Australia 2-1. My condolences @Telsa Edited March 31, 2015 by carlings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 (edited) The one thing I'm eyeing off right now is Australia paying $2.40 to beat Macedonia, this is one of the most retarded things I've seen in my whole time gambling. Seriously should be like $1.50. I think the odds are so high because Skopje is generally a fortress, Macedonia have knocked off many big teams there, and only conceded 3 goals once in the last 9 years there, and that one time was against Spain. But Macedonia is probably at it's lowest point ever right now, and they have a fairly second string line-up called up. Combined with how Australia played last time out, I'm pretty confident here. Anyway, what I'm saying is this is about as secure as a $1.50 bet, so certainly worth a punt at $2.40. I also think 2-0 is a likely score if you want a bit more risk/reward. Interesting that it's hard to find even $1.90 for Australia now, really came down a lot from $2.40. Chucked some money on Australia 2-0 and Australia 2-1.My condolences @Telsa Meh, get a refund on the multi, lose a few bucks on the correct scores. They were all $9 odds bets so you lose a few on the way to a win. Edited March 31, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 lol it's cute when one of the betting sites sends me an email about their new app without any mention of a bonus. I'll just wait a couple of weeks and they'll send me another email to download their app and give me a bonus bet for doing so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 (edited) Ladbrokes have a money back if your team kicks the first goal but lose offer for round 1 of AFL, surely that's (who scores first goal) pretty much 50-50 and therefore possibly better than the Sportsbet offer, in that if you lose you have close to a 50% chance of getting a refund. Edited April 2, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 Ladbrokes have a money back if your team kicks the first goal but lose offer for round 1 of AFL, surely that's (who scores first goal) pretty much 50-50 and therefore possibly better than the Sportsbet offer, in that if you lose you have close to a 50% chance of getting a refund. I agree this would be a slightly better chance of a refund. Possibly around 40%. I still think Sportsbet's promotion is more enticing seeing it lasts for 8 rounds not 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 (edited) Ladbrokes have a money back if your team kicks the first goal but lose offer for round 1 of AFL, surely that's (who scores first goal) pretty much 50-50 and therefore possibly better than the Sportsbet offer, in that if you lose you have close to a 50% chance of getting a refund.I agree this would be a slightly better chance of a refund. Possibly around 40%. I still think Sportsbet's promotion is more enticing seeing it lasts for 8 rounds not 1.Yeah I was thinking about 40% as well since obviously the team that scores first has a better chance of winning, but it's not a big advantage like in other sports.Sportsbet is a better promo overall, but round 1 you'd go with Ladbrokes. Edited April 2, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 $25 on West Sydney 2-1 @ $11$250 on West Sydney @ $2.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimey Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 $5 on WSW 3-2 paying 36.00 $25 on WSW paying $3.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 Back to shit, usually means big wins ahead.Fucking cunts not letting me split my $250 bonus bet up, wasted it all on West Sydney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheepdog Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 I think I speak on behalf of a lot of people when I say... Fucking cop that result tesla you cheeky motherfucker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 See what happens when I post what I bet on. I reckon it will be a good weekend still, especially with all the good offers available. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomby Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 Nice little win this morning with a BTTS treble in the Championship, good start to the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 3, 2015 Report Share Posted April 3, 2015 WTF is this shit, Randwick abandoned. FFS was gonna clean up with that first 4 races refund from Sportsbet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted April 4, 2015 Report Share Posted April 4, 2015 WTF is this shit, Randwick abandoned. FFS was gonna clean up with that first 4 races refund from Sportsbet. Its completely fucked up here, it just wont stop pouring... would have been very hard to pick winners if they did run in the mud anyway. The hit they are going to take out of having to move the meet to Monday would have them in tears, just the prize money on the entire card that was meant to be for today was far to high in the first place... the Race Club must be devasted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 4, 2015 Report Share Posted April 4, 2015 Fuck it better not affect the soccer later, Sydney at 2.20 is basically a licence to print money, but not if the pitch is wet then who knows what will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wfc_10 Posted April 4, 2015 Report Share Posted April 4, 2015 Good bet for tonight would be Swindon vs MK Dons, Sportsbet paying $4.85 for BTTS and a Swindon win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted April 5, 2015 Report Share Posted April 5, 2015 $107 up with Sportsbet money back offer if you lead at a break but lose. Only backed 4/8 winners but 3 out of 4 losers I've got my money back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted April 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2015 $107 up with Sportsbet money back offer if you lead at a break but lose. Only backed 4/8 winners but 3 out of 4 losers I've got my money back. I should have sat this round out. 3/8 on tips (started 0/5) and 2/6 on bets (got money back for the Essendon & Carlton losses though). Yesterday was looking great, had Betts to kick 3 or more $2.30 & Tex to kick 3 or more $1.70 but then put more than I should have on the Total Score Over in the Freo-Port game. I got annihilated on Saturday ffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHFCRC Posted April 7, 2015 Report Share Posted April 7, 2015 Annihilated is the perfect term for my weekend, in particular yesterday. Tiny win on Mongolian Khan cancelled out by not being close on anything else. got too desperate, especially on a bog track. LR looks fucked, so different to last year when he smashed them same conditions, same race... Interesting to see where they go with him. Chautauqua was massive though. On another note, Sandown would be my least profitable Victorian track by a long long way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 7, 2015 Report Share Posted April 7, 2015 (edited) Also got destroyed. Legit don't know how I could have such bad luck, just randomly picking shit to bet on would have been more successful. I've always said if I'm not winning money I'm done, so if don't have a good weekend this weekend probably out for a little while at least. I'm not a degenerate like tomby, gambling when you lose money is the biggest And if I'm out, that's cool, I had a good run overall, still made a decent amount, etc. Edited April 7, 2015 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted April 7, 2015 Report Share Posted April 7, 2015 Had a great weekend on the punt. 4 winners @ Randwick yesterday. Backed Belcrest Lady @ Sandown at 20/1. Only backed 4/9 in the AFL but got my money back on 4 of my 5 losers thanks to Sportsbets great offer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted April 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2015 (edited) Need to make a bet on AFL for a syndicate I'm in this weekend. Thinking of doing this: Suns -11.5 Tigers -5.5 Dockers +30.5 = $2.33 Someone convince me otherwise. Edited April 7, 2015 by MaliMate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaliMate Posted April 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2015 $63.50 for Tex to make the top 3 in the Brownlow this year. You'd think he has 3 votes on the board already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Going to fucking destroy it this weekend. Bookmakers getting cocky cause I lost for once last weekend, sending me bonus bets n shit for once. They're fucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Also good look from crownbet refunding all future bets on Perth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Going to fucking destroy it this weekend. Bookmakers getting cocky cause I lost for once last weekend, sending me bonus bets n shit for once. They're fucked. Yep I got 2 x $100 free bets that I chucked separately on Carlton and Adelaide, and a shitty $10 birthday bet that I also put on Adelaide. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Going to fucking destroy it this weekend. Bookmakers getting cocky cause I lost for once last weekend, sending me bonus bets n shit for once. They're fucked. Yep I got 2 x $100 free bets that I chucked separately on Carlton and Adelaide, and a shitty $10 birthday bet that I also put on Adelaide.who gave you those freebets?Fucking sportsbet and William hill are so stingy, sportsbet gave me 100% match upto $20, and william hill 300% upto $10 deposit (so $10 and $30 free bet)Also have 100% match upto $100 from betstar, but they seem to give these like once a month (and without any notification) both at ladbrokes and betstar if you dont have a punt, get them often on betstar since never use it otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Centrebet and William Hill up to $100 matched deposit bonus And LuxBet gave me the $10 bday bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Centrebet and William Hill up to $100 matched deposit bonus And LuxBet gave me the $10 bday bet.seemed like they stopped doing those at the William Hill brands and just do shit like deposit $20 get 70$ bonus, deposit $10 get $30 bonus, etc.i think the aim of that is to target casual punters more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Used my $20 bonus from sportsbet on Thompson to score first goal tonight Got a bet on 4-0 tonight as well but kind of thinking I should have gone 3-0 instead. Also have Victory in 3 multis so really need the cunts to win lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 well thats a shit start, hopefully get a refund on at least 1 of those multis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 10, 2015 Report Share Posted April 10, 2015 Picked up Sydney to win the first half against Perth and I'm back to pretty much even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted April 11, 2015 Report Share Posted April 11, 2015 2 winners in a row, that one paying almost $6. Suck my dick sportsbet, cant take my money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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