The Gallops Only Thread

[Tesla]

Yes fair enough there is nothing wrong with betting for fun, I do it on sports (as I've said many times, I don't believe it's possible to make money on sports because the market is too efficient, unless you're betting on some random AF sport or league) and some of the bigger Australian races, but the two things I've made money off have been worth the effort IMO which are exploiting promos and UK/IRE racing. Everything else has so far been a waste of time (which is often more annoying than losing money).

Anyway I'm probably done soon, just want my current bet365 account to last until the end of the UK season (another month and a half). When you factor in organising new accounts, it does make you question wether it's worth the effort.

One correction to my post above, there is nothing wrong with markets being more efficient for people betting for fun, it's actually better since than bookmakers would run lower percentages or have more promos or whatever, which means most people will lose less while having fun. It's only bad for those who are trying to make money.

[HeartinHobart]

Anyone been to Caulfield Cup Day?  Planning on heading there this year. Only been to Guineas Day which is great. Better racing but a little quieter. Is Cup day just too busy? 

[bt50]

2 hours ago, HeartinHobart said:

Anyone been to Caulfield Cup Day?  Planning on heading there this year. Only been to Guineas Day which is great. Better racing but a little quieter. Is Cup day just too busy? 

Nah, heading to the Cox Plate again though. I quite particularly like the Valley for some reason.

[carlings]

2 hours ago, bt50 said:

Nah, heading to the Cox Plate again though. I quite particularly like the Valley for some reason.

Lock in Avoca Cup

[Tesla]

Not sure when they redid the racing.com website, but it is ridiculously good now. Easily the best form guide for Victorian racing now.

[cadete]

14 hours ago, HeartinHobart said:

Anyone been to Caulfield Cup Day?  Planning on heading there this year. Only been to Guineas Day which is great. Better racing but a little quieter. Is Cup day just too busy? 

Yeah, I am a Member there...

It is a lot busier than Guineas Day as in prob 35% more PPL in GA and probably 20% more in the Members (Despite Guineas Day now being better racing than Derby Day).

It is a good day and the Young Members Event on Caulfield Cup day is probably better than any of the one's Flemington host.

[Tesla]

Ubet paid me for a place for running 3rd in a 6 runner race?

Is there some rule I don't know on Australian racing where if you place a fixed odds bet with 8+ runners you still get paid 3 places (with deductions obviously)?

In taking back what I said about Australian racing, it's not bad when you don't give a fuck about your accounts and just smash the overnight odds.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Tesla

[HeartinHobart]

Yes. If when placing a bet there is 8 runners or more 3 placings will be paid. Likewise, in a tote pool if late scratchings take the field under 8 3 placings will still be paid. 

[Tesla]

5 hours ago, HeartinHobart said:

Yes. If when placing a bet there is 8 runners or more 3 placings will be paid. Likewise, in a tote pool if late scratchings take the field under 8 3 placings will still be paid. 

Shows how little place betting I've done, especially on fixed odds. It annoys me how shit the place fixed odds seem to be, a horse can shorten a fair bit in terms of it's win odds compared to the fixed odds you took but then the fucking mid tote place is the same or better than the place fixed odds you took. But having a $31 or w/e runner run 2nd/3rd and getting nothing for it is even more annoying.

That's one shit thing about UK racing, that if it drops to 7 runners then the each way terms change to 2 places for all bets.

[cadete]

You can get some good odds in Place Betting because so many people bet EW the place odds often more reflect a horses chances of winning than placing.

Some horses are real good at placing but can't win races... I often like to pick these ones out ESP in WFA races were they are much better value as a place bet than the odds for the Fav and most likely eventual winner.

[Tesla]

Omen bet in race 9 GP - My Mate Stride

5ish odds

Pls deliver @strider

[strider]

3 hours ago, Tesla said:

Omen bet in race 9 GP - My Mate Stride

5ish odds

Pls deliver @strider

did i win

[Tesla]

No you cunt, banned.

Legit every other WA harness bet today that didn't win at least finished second, except this one it was just a donkey.

[strider]

1 minute ago, Tesla said:

No you cunt, banned.

Legit every other WA harness bet today that didn't win at least finished second, except this one it was just a donkey.

who? the horse or the stable forewoman? 

 

[tomby]

Have a day off strides

[Tesla]

$34 chance 2nd yesterday because it had to run like 12 wide

$51 chance second by a nose today

Love gambling ffs  

[cadete]

33 minutes ago, Tesla said:

$34 chance 2nd yesterday because it had to run like 12 wide

$51 chance second by a nose today

Love gambling ffs  

We can see as much by the fact that you are betting on Sunday and Monday Meetings...

I took a spell on the weekend racing and put it instead on Hartnell at $6 for the Caulfield Cup, I cant see him losing with Winx not in the race.

Also looking forward to the VRC Chairman's Committee Room this Sunday for Turnbull Stakes Day.  

Edited September 26, 2016 by cadete

[Tesla]

2 hours ago, cadete said:

We can see as much by the fact that you are betting on Sunday and Monday Meetings...

Meh, only a few bets each day. theres money to be made so why not.

Just had two more in a row at long odds run second as well lol, how it goes sometimes I guess (can't complain about the ew return I suppose).

 

2 hours ago, cadete said:

I took a spell on the weekend racing and put it instead on Hartnell at $6 for the Caulfield Cup, I cant see him losing with Winx not in the race.

Yeah I'm getting on, wouldn't have if you didnt mention it cause I'd assume it was shorter tbh.

EDIT: crownbet cunts wont let me multi it with an ante post pick in france ffs

Edited September 26, 2016 by Tesla

[Tesla]

fwiw, I think Hartnell's Melbourne Cup credentials are underestimated, this is a horse that beat Big Orange over 2 miles in the UK (granted it was a long time ago and Big Orange was inexperienced), and it seems Big Orange is the Cup favourite despite probably being on top weight by Cup day since everyone with a higher weight is pulling out. Wouldn't read too much into last year's cup run TBH. Anyway you need a lot of luck for the Melbourne Cup but if he races and he does get the luck he could certainly win. He does have a big weight to carry, but nothing unreasonable compared to all the other good horses.

[cadete]

1 hour ago, Tesla said:

fwiw, I think Hartnell's Melbourne Cup credentials are underestimated, this is a horse that beat Big Orange over 2 miles in the UK (granted it was a long time ago and Big Orange was inexperienced), and it seems Big Orange is the Cup favourite despite probably being on top weight by Cup day since everyone with a higher weight is pulling out. Wouldn't read too much into last year's cup run TBH. Anyway you need a lot of luck for the Melbourne Cup but if he races and he does get the luck he could certainly win. He does have a big weight to carry, but nothing unreasonable compared to all the other good horses.

Actually I would say as long as the track is not completely fucked like last year which was an exception... you need less luck to win a Melbourne than a Caulfield Cup.

1. 24 horses still fit around Flemington better than than 18 at Caulfield,
2. The 3200m finds out a lot more of the no contenders earlier than 2400m does at Caulfield.
3. The horses also get the very long and wide straight six furloughs from the gate to sort their positions out in rather than the quickly approaching bend at Caulfield.
4. They then get a smooth corner and long straight to try finish the race off in as best than can... whilst at Caulfield they run down a hill and then have a narrow bend into a smaller straight which is a bias to the front runners and causes others to be held up.

[Tesla]

They should really pay 4 places on both tbh, and any other handicap race with more than 16 runners.

[cadete]

43 minutes ago, Tesla said:

They should really pay 4 places on both tbh, and any other handicap race with more than 16 runners.

Nah... You would have to be a mug not to be able draw a safe line through almost the half the field of each race/

As a lot PPL are more than happy to enter Horses of Country Cup Class in a Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup so their large Syndicate and Friends can wine and dine in the Owner's Facilities.

Edited September 28, 2016 by cadete

[Tesla]

20 minutes ago, cadete said:

Nah... You would have to be a mug not to be able draw a safe line through almost the half the field of each race/

As a lot PPL are more than happy to enter Horses of Country Cup Class in a Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup so their large Syndicate and Friends can wine and dine in the Owner's Facilities.

Meh, couple of internationals that could win the Caufield Cup, just dont know how they stack up against the Australian horses. If they do compare well then that extra place comes in handy. Even worse for the Melbourne Cup, much more money overall in breeding horses for shorter distances in Australia in recent times, the internationals should do well. Though most have pulled out so dunno, the owners and trainers know better than me and there must be a reason they dont fancy their chances.

Same reason Australia has by far the best sprinters, prize money for sprints in this country is unmatched worldwide. Though the way things are going we're probably close to have the biggest prize money accross everything.

[cadete]

15 minutes ago, Tesla said:

Meh, couple of internationals that could win the Caufield Cup, just dont know how they stack up against the Australian horses. If they do compare well then that extra place comes in handy. Even worse for the Melbourne Cup, much more money overall in breeding horses for shorter distances in Australia in recent times, the internationals should do well. Though most have pulled out so dunno, the owners and trainers know better than me and there must be a reason they dont fancy their chances.

Same reason Australia has by far the best sprinters, prize money for sprints in this country is unmatched worldwide. Though the way things are going we're probably close to have the biggest prize money accross everything.

The reason the International Trainers send their horses out for the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup is because they find it laughable that we have Handicaps worth so much and pay winnings out to so many places and most all that that are Group One's. (Only WFA is Group One is Europe). Its commonly perceived that its conceivable that a solid lightly raced G2 Stayer from overseas can win the Melbourne Cup.

Also like you mentioned Australians these tend to try to get the yearlings the buy to the track as fast as possible for the rich two year season, and to a lesser extent the early three year old season... which is not the best way to develop a Stayer. In fact this is why most of the horses that win the VRC Derby and Oaks end up doing jack shit the next Autumn because they have raced to many times before they have to tackle middle to long distances way too early for their age.

This has now lead to a lot of big Aussie trainers increasingly purchase already raced Stayers from overseas to combat the Cups to the extent that its now really pissing of these nations who complain their Staying Stocks are being depleted.

In saying that when the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup form guide comes out you will see that it be easy enough to draw a line through half the horses, first off there is at least a third of the horses that have never won a Group 3 or higher Race at Set Weights for one. 

Then there are another batch of three or so Stayers that are horses who can find the line but can still place so they are still going around for the place winnings at offer and a final group of four or so horses who were last not deplorable in the Spring a year before (The ones I alluded to that did well in the VRC Derby and VRC Oaks usually).

Obv I agree that any Internationally Trained Horses you would not rule out... likewise any Imported Stayers that have not shown to been pretty pathetic already in the Metropolitan and Epsom. 

[HeartinHobart]

Really reckon The Moir Friday night will be one of the races of the spring. 

[Tesla]

2 hours ago, cadete said:

The reason the International Trainers send their horses out for the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup is because they find it laughable that we have Handicaps worth so much and pay winnings out to so many places and most all that that are Group One's. (Only WFA is Group One is Europe). Its commonly perceived that its conceivable that a solid lightly raced G2 Stayer from overseas can win the Melbourne Cup.

Also like you mentioned Australians these tend to try to get the yearlings the buy to the track as fast as possible for the rich two year season, and to a lesser extent the early three year old season... which is not the best way to develop a Stayer. In fact this is why most of the horses that win the VRC Derby and Oaks end up doing jack shit the next Autumn because they have raced to many times before they have to tackle middle to long distances way too early for their age.

This has now lead to a lot of big Aussie trainers increasingly purchase already raced Stayers from overseas to combat the Cups to the extent that its now really pissing of these nations who complain their Staying Stocks are being depleted.

In saying that when the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup form guide comes out you will see that it be easy enough to draw a line through half the horses, first off there is at least a third of the horses that have never won a Group 3 or higher Race at Set Weights for one. 

Then there are another batch of three or so Stayers that are horses who can find the line but can still place so they are still going around for the place winnings at offer and a final group of four or so horses who were last not deplorable in the Spring a year before (The ones I alluded to that did well in the VRC Derby and VRC Oaks usually).

Obv I agree that any Internationally Trained Horses you would not rule out... likewise any Imported Stayers that have not shown to been pretty pathetic already in the Metropolitan and Epsom. 

FWIW, while they don't have group races that are handicaps, there are races of similar prize money and interest that are handicaps they just can't be classified as group races.

Also I think it's not just because the CC and MC are high paying handicaps, but because they are high paying races in general, prize money in the UK is shit even for Group 1 races. The Caufield Cup pays more than any race in the UK, when I dont think it's even top 5 in Australia. They seem to travel to any race with big prize money around the world.

Edited September 28, 2016 by Tesla

[cadete]

18 hours ago, Tesla said:

FWIW, while they don't have group races that are handicaps, there are races of similar prize money and interest that are handicaps they just can't be classified as group races.

Also I think it's not just because the CC and MC are high paying handicaps, but because they are high paying races in general, prize money in the UK is shit even for Group 1 races. The Caufield Cup pays more than any race in the UK, when I dont think it's even top 5 in Australia. They seem to travel to any race with big prize money around the world.

Its behind the MC, Slipper, Queen Elizabeth and then equal with the Doncaster and the Cox Plate in Fourth Spot.

[Tesla]

The horse that won Kart Em's last race is having a run at Moonee Valley tomorrow race 2, in a conditions race or w/e it is, will be interesting to see how it goes in a higher class, might make that 3rd for kart em look better.

Speaking of Kart Em, he should be due for a run soon  @hedaik?

Edited September 29, 2016 by Tesla

[hedaik]

7 minutes ago, Tesla said:

The horse that won Kart Em's last race is having a run at Moonee Valley tomorrow race 2, in a conditions race or w/e it is, will be interesting to see how it goes in a higher class, might make that 3rd for kart em look better.

Speaking of Kart Em, he should be due for a run soon  @hedaik?

Next Friday I think was the aim, trainers being extra careful after its bleed and wanted to give it an extra week off 

[Tesla]

I blackbooekd another from his last race which is also racing tomorrow (in two races currently, probably looking at the weather in Benalla and if not then it will run at pakenham), I don't really remember why I blackbooked it tbh must have been something I liked but anyway again might give some insight as to the quality of the field last time around.

Will be backing Kart Em next time anyway but I don't think he has much left to hide from the market so seeing how those goes might impact wether I make a serious bet or just a bet for a laugh.

[hedaik]

Next Thursday at Ballarat 

[mus-28]

15 hours ago, Tesla said:

The horse that won Kart Em's last race is having a run at Moonee Valley tomorrow race 2, in a conditions race or w/e it is, will be interesting to see how it goes in a higher class, might make that 3rd for kart em look better.

Speaking of Kart Em, he should be due for a run soon  @hedaik?

SCRATCHED

[cadete]

Tonight's Moir will be good fun... the WFA sprinting stocks are much more fun ATM to watch than the Middle Distance WFA horses due the lack of depth after the Top Two in NSW and Black Hart Bart down here's pretty much dominance (Albeit not two starts ago).

If Chat can get around them at a 1000m and with the speed in the race at The Valley that will be a feat likewise if Buffering can hold them of at his age....

Also not to mention if Extreme Choice can as a three year old beat those two... Froggy Newitt reckons his a big chance in the paper so I am going to go on him.

[HeartinHobart]

2 hours ago, cadete said:

Tonight's Moir will be good fun... the WFA sprinting stocks are much more fun ATM to watch than the Middle Distance WFA horses due the lack of depth after the Top Two in NSW and Black Hart Bart down here's pretty much dominance (Albeit not two starts ago).

If Chat can get around them at a 1000m and with the speed in the race at The Valley that will be a feat likewise if Buffering can hold them of at his age....

Also not to mention if Extreme Choice can as a three year old beat those two... Froggy Newitt reckons his a big chance in the paper so I am going to go on him.

I was super keen on Extreme Choice but talk now is they're going to ride him quietly. I therefore think he'll only be in front Chat maybe 2 lengths at the 400m. Which is an obvious concern. I still like him though and will probably play with WH double down betting and double up during the run if things are unfolding well. 

[cadete]

2 hours ago, HeartinHobart said:

I was super keen on Extreme Choice but talk now is they're going to ride him quietly. I therefore think he'll only be in front Chat maybe 2 lengths at the 400m. Which is an obvious concern. I still like him though and will probably play with WH double down betting and double up during the run if things are unfolding well. 

Look if Chat wins I won't be bothered to lose to a Champion who pulls of a Champion performance.

[Tesla]

I wasn't going to bet TBH, too many quality runners but I know Chat most likely still has too much quality for the rest but the odds are too low for me.

Then I had a 50/1 winner earlier today and now I dont give a fuck and I'm just gonna have a small bet on Chat for lols since I want to see this race and I really just want to see Chat smash all these tbh.

Got on at 2.25 (dont have access to any of the boosted odds) and it's come in a bit to 1.95 now so at least I've done okay price wise (wouldnt surprise me if it drifts back out though). If Extreme Choice wins because it's carrying way less weight then fair enough, I might be annoyed if Buffering wins though since i backed Buffering last time against Chat.

[HeartinHobart]

Bang great win! Just wish he was a gelding. 

[cadete]

Ha ha we have a sire here... had it won by the bend with that turn of foot.

[Tesla]

Good win for you guys.

The one time I back a favourite it obviously wasn't going to win

[carlings]

Extreme Choice was real nice last night at the valley. The look on the faces of the arrogant AF preppy "world's greatest sprinter hat"  wearing tossers was satisfying.