The Gallops Only Thread

[Tesla]

Finally sinking in how special that was, fucking hell, had a few wins return that much, a couple higher, but nothing at those odds before. That's what makes it special, and the run, and that it was a G1, and the celebration.

Anyway, whats the go for Saturday? Haven't found anything for the Stakes yet tbh, but have Our Boy Malachi in the Darley Classic.

Surely this week can't get any better, probably won't hit anything.

[strider]

2 hours ago, Tesla said:

Finally sinking in how special that was, fucking hell, had a few wins return that much, a couple higher, but nothing at those odds before. That's what makes it special, and the run, and that it was a G1, and the celebration.

Anyway, whats the go for Saturday? Haven't found anything for the Stakes yet tbh, but have Our Boy Malachi in the Darley Classic.

Surely this week can't get any better, probably won't hit anything.

u wanna come alumbra on saturday? 

[cadete]

9 hours ago, Tesla said:

Finally sinking in how special that was, fucking hell, had a few wins return that much, a couple higher, but nothing at those odds before. That's what makes it special, and the run, and that it was a G1, and the celebration.

Anyway, whats the go for Saturday? Haven't found anything for the Stakes yet tbh, but have Our Boy Malachi in the Darley Classic.

Surely this week can't get any better, probably won't hit anything.

The Quarterback should win the Darley, his form at Moonee Valley over 1200m where he is not suited at all has been very very good and his form at the same distance at Flemington is near impeccable.

[Tesla]

Glad I locked in $7 on Our Boy Malachi yesterday, they smashed him into $4.50 today. Not that it takes much even on a G1's early odds, probably come back out tomorrow as people back others.

[Tesla]

One thing I've learnt recently and it reflects most my recent winners (150/1 shots aside) is that favourites or shorter priced runners in general are great. Obviously if you could make the same profit backing shorter priced runners rather than longer shots you'd choose the shorter priced ones just because of the better strike rate, but that's not what I'm talking about, I think it's also easier to profit on shorter priced runenrs.

The market actually prices favourites closer to their true chance than longer shots, so you have less of an edge to beat. Eg if you backed every favourite to btsp you'd only lose 4% on average in the long run, whereas if you backed a random runner you'd lose 8% on average in the long run. It's even more telling if you specifically look at backing a $10 shot or a $20 shot or whatever, the edge against you gets quite high. That's probably why longer shots pay more on betfair, because betfair is a more accurate market and those odds are a closer reflection to a horses chances. Conversely I can tell you that almost none of my shorter price winners pay more on the betfair sp than on btsp or even better TF/BOB.

So basically it's a fairly small edge you need to beat backing shorter priced horses, skip the fairly clear cut false favourites, and it's even smaller.

[cadete]

19 minutes ago, Tesla said:

One thing I've learnt recently and it reflects most my recent winners (150/1 shots aside) is that favourites or shorter priced runners in general are great. Obviously if you could make the same profit backing shorter priced runners rather than longer shots you'd choose the shorter priced ones just because of the better strike rate, but that's not what I'm talking about, I think it's also easier to profit on shorter priced runenrs.

The market actually prices favourites closer to their true chance than longer shots, so you have less of an edge to beat. Eg if you backed every favourite to btsp you'd only lose 4% on average in the long run, whereas if you backed a random runner you'd lose 8% on average in the long run. It's even more telling if you specifically look at backing a $10 shot or a $20 shot or whatever, the edge against you gets quite high. That's probably why longer shots pay more on betfair, because betfair is a more accurate market and those odds are a closer reflection to a horses chances. Conversely I can tell you that almost none of my shorter price winners pay more on the betfair sp than on btsp or even better TF/BOB.

So basically it's a fairly small edge you need to beat backing shorter priced horses, skip the fairly clear cut false favourites, and it's even smaller.

FWIW the Favourites chance of winning a horse race has remained at about 30% with little change to this figure throughout this time period in most parts of the world.

[Tesla]

24 minutes ago, cadete said:

FWIW the Favourites chance of winning a horse race has remained at about 30% with little change to this figure throughout this time period in most parts of the world.

Yes and if you add the second favourite to that its close to 50% of races won by one or the other.

Of course its not about picking winners but picking value, but even in that regard they do well which is what my above post was about.

TBH its pretty counter intuitive (that its easier to find value in short priced runners), at least to me, but numbers dont lie.

[cadete]

Just now, Tesla said:

Yes and if you add the second favourite to that its close to 50% of races won by one or the other.

Of course its not about picking winners but picking value, but even in that regard they do well which is what my above post was about.

TBH its pretty counter intuitive (that its easier to find value in short priced runners), at least to me, but numbers dont lie.

I GTBH Tesla in saying that you really know how to suck the life out of horse racing, when I read your posts it reminds me about how I got disinterested with the whole capper from like 2008 to 2013 due to another Professional Punter I knew at the time.

If it was not for Young Members Events and Posh Girls on course on G1 Days to look at I reckon if I read your posts each day I could easily let go of the sport again... I already have to contend with a partner who hates the bloody sport.

[Tesla]

Okay fair enough.

On another note, I didnt watch the race but it was interesting to see that California Chrome got rolled in the Breeders Cup Classic yesterday morning, which makes it hard to see how Winx isn't the best horse in the world TBH.

I know the idea might sound crazy to some, but I dont think it's that far fetched that Winx has a crack at the Dubai World Cup. It's common in other countries for horses to run on different surfaces, and even here in the lower grades. Obviously some horses are more suited to one surface than another, but who knows maybe Winx can run on the dirt. Her sire won the Dubai World Cup, so I guess you could look at that as one indicator. Even if she isn't as good on dirt, tbh she could still be too good. The way I see it, they could send her to Dubai, run her on dirt in one of the leadup races, and if it doesn't suit then go for the Dubai Turf instead. The Dubai Turf is still a US$5m G1, not a bad plan B. And if she does well on the dirt, then she would have to be favourite to win a US10m race. Seems like it's worth the risk to me. Of course if dirt does work, then the story doesn't end there, could go for the BCC as well next year instead of another Cox Plate, it's more than double the prize money (US$6m).

Either way you'd like to see her go the international route next, and you'd think it would increase her future value more in retirement beating the world's best rather than beating the same horses over and over again in Australia. UK is probably more likely as there are basically offering a large appearance fee to get her over there, but I'd rather see Dubai even if it is just for the Dubai Turf rather than having a crack at the DWC (which would be best to see).

[cadete]

10 hours ago, Tesla said:

Okay fair enough.

On another note, I didnt watch the race but it was interesting to see that California Chrome got rolled in the Breeders Cup Classic yesterday morning, which makes it hard to see how Winx isn't the best horse in the world TBH.

I know the idea might sound crazy to some, but I dont think it's that far fetched that Winx has a crack at the Dubai World Cup. It's common in other countries for horses to run on different surfaces, and even here in the lower grades. Obviously some horses are more suited to one surface than another, but who knows maybe Winx can run on the dirt. Her sire won the Dubai World Cup, so I guess you could look at that as one indicator. Even if she isn't as good on dirt, tbh she could still be too good. The way I see it, they could send her to Dubai, run her on dirt in one of the leadup races, and if it doesn't suit then go for the Dubai Turf instead. The Dubai Turf is still a US$5m G1, not a bad plan B. And if she does well on the dirt, then she would have to be favourite to win a US10m race. Seems like it's worth the risk to me. Of course if dirt does work, then the story doesn't end there, could go for the BCC as well next year instead of another Cox Plate, it's more than double the prize money (US$6m).

Either way you'd like to see her go the international route next, and you'd think it would increase her future value more in retirement beating the world's best rather than beating the same horses over and over again in Australia. UK is probably more likely as there are basically offering a large appearance fee to get her over there, but I'd rather see Dubai even if it is just for the Dubai Turf rather than having a crack at the DWC (which would be best to see).

It is not worth the risk, seeing if she can travel well and run in different conditions on different surfaces (This is kind of laughable) when she collect good money just collecting the cash on offer for WFA races in Australia which ATM appears to be a foregone conclusion.

More to the point its def not worth it as she is a Mare (She can only have one foal a year) so for the owners its more about prizemoney for the owners rather than breeding its not like she can be a Sire who can fathers tons of foals a year.

Even then you not going to get a much better price when you sell a Broad Mare than one who has dominated WFA Racing in Australia for three straight years. In fact with each possible loss her value would decrease significantly to overseas investors. Hence why horses like Reset get retired if they win five in a row,

Also finally obviously whoever does buy her as a Broad Mare will spend a lot on her but if you look at Champion Mare's history as mothers they have traditionally had a very poor record in churning out Stakes Winners.

Edit - To sum up my point about how crucial it is to retire a horse (stallion) before racks up loses on to a good record Capitalist has just been retired... which I am sure they heavily regret not doing straight after the Slipper.

Edited November 7, 2016 by cadete

[Tesla]

You make good points but when you have a horse this good IMO you have to have a crack internationally, even if it's just for one race. That's what they did with Black Caviar, and probably the smartest way to do it, race once and win, and then dont risk it again. That's why I say the UK is probably most likely, especially if it is true that they're offering a significant appearance fee, and it's probably easier competition to what you'd get in Dubai even in the Dubai Turf.

[cadete]

1 hour ago, Tesla said:

You make good points but when you have a horse this good IMO you have to have a crack internationally, even if it's just for one race. That's what they did with Black Caviar, and probably the smartest way to do it, race once and win, and then dont risk it again. That's why I say the UK is probably most likely, especially if it is true that they're offering a significant appearance fee, and it's probably easier competition to what you'd get in Dubai even in the Dubai Turf.

Okay, another thing I couldn't be bothered explaining in my other post is that in UK its legal for Stable to Match Race and in Dubai its either legal (Or just done by you know who so basicly legal) which is another thing that could just hurt her record.

When I say Match Race I mean trainers like Aidan O'Brien will on purpose put a second horse in a race to dictate the pace for his major chance in the race... these tactics dont matter as much in Sprints (Hence Aussies are happy to tackle them at Ascot) as there is not enough time/distance for them to have a major effect.

They do cause Middle Distance horses running as solo entries from their Stable in particular to lose races... ESP when they are the best in the race and the tactics get worked out based around their running style.

Even though she still probably win despite such tactics I am sure the connections think such a risk of a loss is not worth it... it be better to have a easy planned out campaign of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in Autumn and Cox Plate in Spring. This would net a lot more money and just as much respect as a Broad Mare. (Only Kingston Town won three as this year's 3yo Milers look better than last seasons which would add to a Cox Plate Victory.)

I think Walter would probably only seriously consider Hong Kong, and at a stretch maybe Japan if he went aboard... TBH I reckon she actually would have won this Seasons Melbourne Cup on Class alone as the field was not that great plus the handicapper is usually too lenient on champion mares considering how early most stallions are now sent to stuff. I think Walter probably knows she could have won this but he knows he can make more out of the Queen Elizabeth/Cox Plate double and the races leading into these two.

It should also be noted that Winx got to where she is due Walter being super cautious with her juvenile campaigns and not but going in for the quick buck so chasing International Money is not really in his nature. Similar to how Moody trained Black Caviar.

[Tesla]

1 hour ago, cadete said:

Okay, another thing I couldn't be bothered explaining in my other post is that in UK its legal for Stable to Match Race and in Dubai its either legal (Or just done by you know who so basicly legal) which is another thing that could just hurt her record.

When I say Match Race I mean trainers like Aidan O'Brien will on purpose put a second horse in a race to dictate the pace for his major chance in the race... these tactics dont matter as much in Sprints (Hence Aussies are happy to tackle them at Ascot) as there is not enough time/distance for them to have a major effect.

They do cause Middle Distance horses running as solo entries from their Stable in particular to lose races... ESP when they are the best in the race and the tactics get worked out based around their running style.

Even though she still probably win despite such tactics I am sure the connections think such a risk of a loss is not worth it... it be better to have a easy planned out campaign of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in Autumn and Cox Plate in Spring. This would net a lot more money and just as much respect as a Broad Mare. (Only Kingston Town won three as this year's 3yo Milers look better than last seasons which would add to a Cox Plate Victory.)

I think Walter would probably only seriously consider Hong Kong, and at a stretch maybe Japan if he went aboard... TBH I reckon she actually would have won this Seasons Melbourne Cup on Class alone as the field was not that great plus the handicapper is usually too lenient on champion mares considering how early most stallions are now sent to stuff. I think Walter probably knows she could have won this but he knows he can make more out of the Queen Elizabeth/Cox Plate double and the races leading into these two.

It should also be noted that Winx got to where she is due Walter being super cautious with her juvenile campaigns and not but going in for the quick buck so chasing International Money is not really in his nature. Similar to how Moody trained Black Caviar.

Yeah that happens all the time there and is an important variable. TBH I didn't realise it was illegal here, still seems to happen.

Look, Dubai is definitely way more of a dream than reality, I'd like to see Winx racing on the biggest night of racing in the world, but I know it's unlikely.

I have seen talk of the Japan Cup, but 2400m seems like a risk. The Champion Mile is an option in Japan but far less prize money, still okay. That could lead into the Hong Kong mile. But I think they would choose the Hong Kong Cup instead of the Hong Kong Mile, and it certainly does look like a very appealing option to run the Champion Mile in lead up to the Hong Kong Cup, land 2 international G1s and a lot of prize money and it's a similar approach Winx has taken previously of racing 1600 and then 2000.

It looks good on paper, but are they going to wait over a year to race Winx internationally? Possibly with the conservative approach they've taken so far.

I just think when Winx wins the QES they'll say let's go to Royal Ascot, it might not be the best prize money but they'll apparently collect a sizeable appearance fee as well and what it lacks in prize money it makes up for in prestige.

[Tesla]

Today is a quality day of racing, better than most Saturdays. Anyone having a punt?

[cadete]

20 minutes ago, Tesla said:

Today is a quality day of racing, better than most Saturdays. Anyone having a punt?

Yeah, its so good I chucked a sickie so I could get a couple of those Free Chicken and Mayonnaise Sandwiches in the Members at Sandown before the 33 other people there ( All over 90) pocket them for their dinner.

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by cadete

[Tesla]

23 minutes ago, cadete said:

Yeah, its so good I chucked a sickie so I could get a couple of those Free Chicken and Mayonnaise Sandwiches in the Members at Sandown before the 33 other people there ( All over 90) pocket them for their dinner.

 

Lol, I obviously meant from a punting perspective but I get your point.

[cadete]

Just now, Tesla said:

Lol, I obviously meant from a punting perspective but I get your point.

TBH I would love to be able to just fly in and quickly out of Perth for the Railway Stakes on Saturday, it was like my favourite day in Perth when I lived there as you never had to worry about the weather, Beautiful Track and the Members facilities were great and a not many CUB's would think about becoming Members.

But it really is a shit time for racing on the East Coast from here until the first Magic Millions 2YO hopefuls start running early next year.

[Shahanga]

Any tips for the Valley @cadete?

[cadete]

No but I like the horse Pike is ridding in the Winterbottom. 

Is of a very good Sprinting Dam and a good EW Chance.

[Tesla]

Takedown for me. 

Keen Array definitely value at $41 as well but still not much of a chance.  

[Tesla]

So recently I realised I can get TF on more races than with the corps via Rod Cleary who also has an online presence. Doesnt really seem to be any other rails bookies with online presences though. Obviously this isn't an area I know much about, is it pretty standard for rails bookies to give TF on a lot of races or is Rod an exception?

[cadete]

16 hours ago, Tesla said:

So recently I realised I can get TF on more races than with the corps via Rod Cleary who also has an online presence. Doesnt really seem to be any other rails bookies with online presences though. Obviously this isn't an area I know much about, is it pretty standard for rails bookies to give TF on a lot of races or is Rod an exception?

I dont know about online... but yeah there is usually one or two Bookmakers at a Melbourne Metro Meeting offering TF as their lure for Punters like how one or two offer money back on Win bets if your horse places.

However, the amount of Bookies gets depleted every year, they dont even use the Old Ring at Caulfield anymore (They have fitted them inside - and created a supposed Owners Bar) and a third of the Ring at Flemington is vacant.

The ring at MV is basically little more than the place where you can go to smoke undercover.

[Tesla]

On 06/12/2016 at 8:56 AM, cadete said:

I dont know about online... but yeah there is usually one or two Bookmakers at a Melbourne Metro Meeting offering TF as their lure for Punters like how one or two offer money back on Win bets if your horse places.

However, the amount of Bookies gets depleted every year, they dont even use the Old Ring at Caulfield anymore (They have fitted them inside - and created a supposed Owners Bar) and a third of the Ring at Flemington is vacant.

The ring at MV is basically little more than the place where you can go to smoke undercover.

Yeah must be tough competing with the corps who have basically been letting people print money with some of the promos over the last couple of years.

But give me TF and a way to do it from my computer/phone, and you'll get my business. TF at fucking Moe the other day, TF at Werribee, Tatura and Canberra today. Love me some TF (on short priced horses outside of stupid Queensland)

Edited December 11, 2016 by Tesla

[HeartinHobart]

Really don't like the official price on Victorian racing now being totally dicatated by the corporates. This further reduces the roll of the on course bookmaker and gives the increasing power to the corporates. We are continually falling closer into line with U.K. betting ways which I have no doubt was the plan all along for major bookmakers. 

[Tesla]

1 hour ago, HeartinHobart said:

Really don't like the official price on Victorian racing now being totally dicatated by the corporates. This further reduces the roll of the on course bookmaker and gives the increasing power to the corporates. We are continually falling closer into line with U.K. betting ways which I have no doubt was the plan all along for major bookmakers. 

Yeah I dont really know about this new Victorian official prices. In some ways it seems like it is more inline with the present reality TBH. But I dont really care about that, what I care about is what's better for me as the punter and really I dont know enough about what effects its having to make that call right now. Seems like all Vic races have an official price now? If thats so, then thats one plus. Whats the percentage like on the official price now, same or better/worse than before? What effect is it having on TF? Wouldnt think it is a negative effect on TF?

Honestly I'd love for them to do it in Qld, its pointless betting TF when the on course bookmakers operate off 140% or something, if they based the official price in Qld off the corps it would be better. But that's just the start of their problems, they seem happy to get left behind by NSW and Vic.

[cadete]

16 hours ago, HeartinHobart said:

Really don't like the official price on Victorian racing now being totally dicatated by the corporates. This further reduces the roll of the on course bookmaker and gives the increasing power to the corporates. We are continually falling closer into line with U.K. betting ways which I have no doubt was the plan all along for major bookmakers. 

If things keep going the way they are going... we will probably end up with no TAB's and different Corporates with their own stores next to each other on the same street.

Meanwhile the knocking down of the Old Stand at Flemington made for a very tame affair on Saturday - Not that I was expecting to much from a Summer Meeting.

[Tesla]

What's bad about them having shops? Would be a good thing tbh, won't happen though, even if it did it would probably just be terminals in pubs.

I did come up with a good reason this new official price might be bad, need to test wether I'm right but basically often you could get a good result on BT+SP if your horse got backed last 30 seconds as the SP wouldn't adjust while the totes and corps would. A lot of my short priced bets seem to fall into that category. Now that the SP is from the corps it will probably not happen as all their prices are just automatically set off the betfair price. Need to confirm. 

[cadete]

18 hours ago, Tesla said:

What's bad about them having shops? Would be a good thing tbh, won't happen though, even if it did it would probably just be terminals in pubs.

I did come up with a good reason this new official price might be bad, need to test wether I'm right but basically often you could get a good result on BT+SP if your horse got backed last 30 seconds as the SP wouldn't adjust while the totes and corps would. A lot of my short priced bets seem to fall into that category. Now that the SP is from the corps it will probably not happen as all their prices are just automatically set off the betfair price. Need to confirm. 

Well I think Betting Shops would probably give the Anti-Horse Racing community a lot more to grumble about for one... and are of course unnecessary for most Punters.

Also as someone who has been betting on horses for a far while when you needed to go to the TAB to watch the races, that TAB's are cesspits full of PPL you want to avoid who have nowhere else to spend their days. They really are shitholes of the highest order and Ladbrokes Store would be no different as I observed by ducking my head in on one in London last year.

I am still pissed of at after successfully lobbying my College's Student Board to get Foxtel back in 2005 only for them to block one channel in that of Sky Racing (The reason I mainly wanted Foxtel - So I could avoid Lygon Street TAB).

And I still want to find their shitty minutes ten years later as I know I have been mentioned by name by some annoying self-important nerd as one of the chief reasons for them to do as such.

Edited December 12, 2016 by cadete

[Tesla]

Yeah good point about the betting shops.

On the corps, we all love to hate them but the way I see it soon a lot of people will be wishing for what we've had over the last few years.

No doubt the business plans of the corps have been destroyed with increasing fees, new taxes (south Australia) and minimum bet laws, hence why the industry is heading towards consolidation (tabcorp buying tatts/ubet, ladbrokes buying tabcorp, etc).

Obviously less competition is not good for punters. When shit hits the fan is NSW (unpopular opinion no doubt, but they seem to be throwing money around like no tomorrow, while they're revenue looks to have peaked IMO), they'll probably increase fees to make up for it. Governments will probably put in more new taxes as well going forward, since they're the biggest gambling addicts in the country, can't get enough of the revenue.

All this will lead to worse odds and products, margins are small even for successful punters so even fairly small changes can turn a successful punter into a losing one, and a losing punter doesn't bet as much as a winning one (unless rich/addicted), further lowering revenue for bookmakers, racing bodies, and governments. Further reducing the odds/products as more new fees and taxes come in to place to make up for it. Could be a really bad cycle. 

Add to that betfair loses money in Australia and their future in Australia is questionable. 

Long story short, punters lose.

Anyway, thats just how I see it hopeful I'm wrong.

But in all seriousness how many people here are actually restricted at any of the corps aside from promotions? I'm probably the most successful punter here and I'm only really banned at bet365 and William Hill. Ladbrokes is a bit borderline, they don't let me on for much on their fixed odds sometimes but I can bet their other products (including BOB) with no issue. Apart from that no issues thus far. The people who get banned easily are the ones that smash obvious pricing errors on sports, and who consistently  bet on overnight/early odds on racing that are overs. I try to avoid that stuff and it seems to be working to preserve my accounts. 

And even then I've never heard of anyone getting restricted at ubet or crownbet (apart from promos), while Sportsbet you can get restricted but it's hard, not all corps are complete scum

Before the corps, the recreational gambler was definitely worse off, and as far as I know everyone here (apart from maybe me) is a recreational gambler.

Anyway, I'm  not trying to be a lobbiest for the corps, but sometimes it does seem people go over the top with their hatred of them. 

[Tesla]

As we speak 6 instances of my bot are collecting and processing data. I will within a few hours have a huge ass database on racing and betting data. I can now pretty much test any system you can come up with. Bring me your ideas and I'll tell you if they're profitable etc. 

[Jimmy]

4 hours ago, Tesla said:

As we speak 6 instances of my bot are collecting and processing data. I will within a few hours have a huge ass database on racing and betting data. I can now pretty much test any system you can come up with. Bring me your ideas and I'll tell you if they're profitable etc. 

You could sell that.

[Tesla]

3 hours ago, Jimmy said:

You could sell that.

Yeah lol, try getting horse racing data, shit costs $$$$.

To be fair, the amount of man hours I've put in this would add up to $$$ anyway, but doing it for LOLs so meh.

[cadete]

On 12/14/2016 at 6:49 PM, Tesla said:

Yeah good point about the betting shops.

On the corps, we all love to hate them but the way I see it soon a lot of people will be wishing for what we've had over the last few years.

No doubt the business plans of the corps have been destroyed with increasing fees, new taxes (south Australia) and minimum bet laws, hence why the industry is heading towards consolidation (tabcorp buying tatts/ubet, ladbrokes buying tabcorp, etc).

Obviously less competition is not good for punters. When shit hits the fan is NSW (unpopular opinion no doubt, but they seem to be throwing money around like no tomorrow, while they're revenue looks to have peaked IMO), they'll probably increase fees to make up for it. Governments will probably put in more new taxes as well going forward, since they're the biggest gambling addicts in the country, can't get enough of the revenue.

All this will lead to worse odds and products, margins are small even for successful punters so even fairly small changes can turn a successful punter into a losing one, and a losing punter doesn't bet as much as a winning one (unless rich/addicted), further lowering revenue for bookmakers, racing bodies, and governments. Further reducing the odds/products as more new fees and taxes come in to place to make up for it. Could be a really bad cycle. 

Add to that betfair loses money in Australia and their future in Australia is questionable. 

Long story short, punters lose.

Anyway, thats just how I see it hopeful I'm wrong.

But in all seriousness how many people here are actually restricted at any of the corps aside from promotions? I'm probably the most successful punter here and I'm only really banned at bet365 and William Hill. Ladbrokes is a bit borderline, they don't let me on for much on their fixed odds sometimes but I can bet their other products (including BOB) with no issue. Apart from that no issues thus far. The people who get banned easily are the ones that smash obvious pricing errors on sports, and who consistently  bet on overnight/early odds on racing that are overs. I try to avoid that stuff and it seems to be working to preserve my accounts. 

And even then I've never heard of anyone getting restricted at ubet or crownbet (apart from promos), while Sportsbet you can get restricted but it's hard, not all corps are complete scum

Before the corps, the recreational gambler was definitely worse off, and as far as I know everyone here (apart from maybe me) is a recreational gambler.

Anyway, I'm  not trying to be a lobbiest for the corps, but sometimes it does seem people go over the top with their hatred of them. 

FWIW what hurts punters most is the closing down of Metro Race Tracks, limits track bias and makes punting on the same horses up against each other week after week a lot more predictable and boring.

[Tesla]

^ Agreed.

On another note, Lloyd > Pike.

I honestly just blindly back Lloyd (as long as < $10 odds) and you can look at his results in recent times to see how that's going for me. The market severely underprices his ability (he wont win another today now that i've said this). 

Edited December 21, 2016 by Tesla

[HeartinHobart]

12 minutes ago, Tesla said:

^ Agreed.

On another note, Lloyd > Pike.

I honestly just blindly back Lloyd (as long as < $10 odds) and you can look at his results in recent times to see how that's going for me. The market severely underprices his ability (he wont win another today now that i've said this). 

The thing about Pike is that his horses generally run at under the odds. Purely because of the amount of people that follow him you rarely a fair price on one of his. Simply based on riding ability I think Sir William is in the top 5 in the country.

Edited December 21, 2016 by HeartinHobart

[Tesla]

Just now, HeartinHobart said:

The thing about Pike is that his horses generally run at under the odds. Purely because of the amount of people that follow him you rarely a fair price on one of his. Purely based on riding ability I think Sir William is in the top 5 in the country.

Actually not true, Pike runners are not under. Metro races, under $10 odds, his ROI is 0%. So he is actually beating the market, not enough to be able to profit from blindly backing him like Lloyd, but blindly backing any other horse will be like -8%, even blindly backing favourites will be at least -4%.

But you're probably right, Pike probably is better, the market just doesnt rate Lloyd like it should, probably because they think he'll be finished any day now. Well even if he lost 10+ in a row I'll be well up on him so I can ride it out.

Aside from Lloyd, there is one other jockey I'm blindly backing at the moment, Melissa Julius. And just as I'm posting she lands a $10 winner on her only ride of the day lol. Might have to stop soon, the market will catch up on her ability soon.

[Tesla]

Having a crack on a boxed tri last race Sandown: 7, 9, 11

[Tesla]

Centrebet relaunched, dont know if owned by WH anymore but promising to have the lowest % on metro races and let people on for $5k win. Not bad.

[Tesla]

Holy crap, sus one of the systems I found from my data:

  "sample size" => 714
  "win sample size" => 123
  "avg winner odds fxd" => 7.2752032520325
  "avg winner odds tote" => 7.4837398373984
  "strike rate" => 0.17226890756303
  "pot fxd" => 1.2532913165266
  "pot tote" => 1.2892156862745

Strike rate a bit shit for my liking but with a 25%+ edge I dont even care

[Tesla]

Take out a mortgage and get on Winning Rupert while you can get 1.70, will go off at 1.20 and win by a few lengths.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Tesla