Tesla Posted October 1, 2016 Report Share Posted October 1, 2016 On 30/09/2016 at 7:22 AM, mus-28 said: SCRATCHED Yeah, was scratched quite early the night before, I had a small bet on it as it's an interesting horse 2/2 and was at double figure odds. Didn't really pay attention to the other one as it didn't look to have a chance and was only $10, no idea how the race went apart from that it didnt do shit as expected (drifted to $31 sp as well). Captain Crackerjack or w/e it was called that ran 2nd is racing today at huge odds forgot which race at Caufield. On another note, if you remember from one of Kart Em's previous races I mentioned I like Canelo, was gonna bet it race 3 Caulfield today but thought it would drift out more so left it and instead bet race 1 Hell Or Highwater which had run 2nd to Canelo recently, and it won at $5 odds, so got on Canello for race 3 ew after that and Dan Thunder ew in race 2 which beat Canelo last time out, finished 3rd for tiny ew profit, and then Canelo just got beat for 3rd in race 3. So a decent profit from Canelo today lawl, I like how they lined up 3 BM70s in a row so you can follow one horse's previous from to another (good situation to multi in theory but the first winning didn't really do anything for the other two's odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Pls Hartnell go to Cox Plate and beat Winx. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 16 hours ago, Tesla said: Pls Hartnell go to Cox Plate and beat Winx. They would be stupid to do that as they are a similar type of horse and Hartnell does not have the same acceleration as Winx despite how good he is... I was there yesterday when he was clapped over the line in The Turnbull (Pretty ridiculous really to see that happen in a Spring G1 Handicap). It be so much smarter to tackle the Caulfield Cup and then maybe weigh up between the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 14 minutes ago, cadete said: They would be stupid to do that as they are a similar type of horse and Hartnell does not have the same acceleration as Winx despite how good he is... I was there yesterday when he was clapped over the line in The Turnbull (Pretty ridiculous really to see that happen in a Spring G1 Handicap). It be so much smarter to tackle the Caulfield Cup and then maybe weigh up between the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. Indeed, but it would be good to see. Hartnell has to go to the MC either way, will most likely be my pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Can't see him going to the Caulfield Cup. The main aim is obviously the Melbourne Cup, Godolphin have been trying to win it for years. If he wins a CC he could easily get a 2kg penalty for the MC and then possibly have to carry 57 in a MC. More likely run a very good 2nd in a Cox Plate if he wins it great. Not eligible for a penalty either way. Then heads to Flemington carry just 55 and probably starts favourite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 3, 2016 Report Share Posted October 3, 2016 (edited) Market definitely agrees with you @HeartinHobart Hartnell odds cut by a huge amount for the MC, and not much for CC while Jameka has shortened for the CC to the point its barely off Hartnell, not sure about CP as I hadnt looked at that market previously but I doubt Hartnell was $4 before? Edited October 3, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2016 (edited) 3 hours ago, HeartinHobart said: Can't see him going to the Caulfield Cup. The main aim is obviously the Melbourne Cup, Godolphin have been trying to win it for years. If he wins a CC he could easily get a 2kg penalty for the MC and then possibly have to carry 57 in a MC. More likely run a very good 2nd in a Cox Plate if he wins it great. Not eligible for a penalty either way. Then heads to Flemington carry just 55 and probably starts favourite I do tend agree on Godolphin on having different motives but I think most normal Australian City Trainer I would win the $3m race first and then carry the extra two kilos... kilos mean less and less the further a race is also its big rise in distance to go from 2040m to 3200m in one week's time. If he can stay the Cup I dont think the 2kg really does matter that much... I would prefer to see if he really can stay this Spring at Caulfield. Edited October 3, 2016 by cadete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 3, 2016 Report Share Posted October 3, 2016 Random, but it really annoys me that people in this country think, for example, 10/1 means $10 Even seen people says 101/1 that one should make it obvious ffs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 (edited) Odds up for Kartem with the two bookmakers in this country, 26/7.5 at bet365 vs 21/6 at sportsbet Edited October 4, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 What's the latest @hedaik? We gonna win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 hours ago, Jimmy said: What's the latest @hedaik? We gonna win? Not at work today but Ive sent him a SMS, will report back on the inside word Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 (edited) Trainers nominating instead for Friday at Geelong because of Bendigo being a Heavy 10. Will know this arvo. Edited October 4, 2016 by hedaik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looked a tough field in the Thursday race anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Scratched Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 (edited) I wonder if ladbrokes oddsboost, sportsbet powerplay, etc, is due to the minimum bet laws, eg offer shitter fixed odds in general so it's harder for the guys whose bets they are forced to take to make money but give mugs the oddsboost/powerplay to still keep them betting with you. Does seem an interesting coincidence that sportsbet rolled it out at the same time as the Vic minimum bet laws coming into effect. I see tabtouch also just rolled out something similar, might have to make an account with them tbh since I cant get the sportsbet one and ladbrokes are now severely limiting how much I can bet on oddsboost. EDIT: Sussed out the tabtouch thing, 25% boost but only upto extra $50 winnings, wouldn't have bothered signing up if I knew limit was so low tbh Edited October 5, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I cant believe I am going to see three horses in WFA G1 on Saturday... The Caulfield Stakes has always been a favourite race of mine because when I lived as a kid in East Malvern I got see the Cox Plate horses on a much low key day at a track around the corner from my house. I have been to numerous Picnic Meetings here in Victoria and even a number of times to Esperance Racecourse which is basically in the middle of a desert yet this will be the first time I will see less than four horses in a race... it is literally a match race like out of an American Movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Cant beleive crownbet were giving 1.50 for winx a couple days ago on the all in market. Thought something dodgy was going on because it couldnt be a mistake with the amount of money they would have taken and the 1.50 was still up for ages. Still doesnt make sense, they could have given 1.30 if they wanted to lay Winx, they still would have been offering the highest odds. Will start at like 1.10 with 3 runners. If Winx doesnt win then well played by them they would have taken in a fuckload offering those kind of odds. Was tempted to put my whole account on it but thought they had info winx wouldnt run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, Tesla said: Cant beleive crownbet were giving 1.50 for winx a couple days ago on the all in market. Thought something dodgy was going on because it couldnt be a mistake with the amount of money they would have taken and the 1.50 was still up for ages. Still doesnt make sense, they could have given 1.30 if they wanted to lay Winx, they still would have been offering the highest odds. Will start at like 1.10 with 3 runners. If Winx doesnt win then well played by them they would have taken in a fuckload offering those kind of odds. Was tempted to put my whole account on it but thought they had info winx wouldnt run. TBH I was never going to bet on the race and was just excited to see her in the flesh as the only other day this Spring I can attend is probably Derby Day as I have really busy weekends at the moment. However its a bit deflating having to see beat two horses rather than say six or seven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Cox plate confirmed for Hartnell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 (edited) Kartem is $31 with Sportsbet Super Mega Powerplay Boost (otherwise $21), I put $20 down. Edited October 6, 2016 by hedaik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 bet365 put him up at $26, but stingy with place bets as always. I want to get place bet down before scratchings but don't want to take the 4.60 with ladbrokes because I think there will be better and also LB seem to have higher deductions than most Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 Is the owner having a bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Tesla said: Is the owner having a bet? Yeah he's surprised the odds are so generous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 6, 2016 Report Share Posted October 6, 2016 Okay then will have a decent crack, 4.65 the place at luxbet, 26 the win at bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 7, 2016 Report Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) The 26 at bet365 and the 23s at a couple went pretty quick last night. Then TAB put it up at 26/5.16 this morning so I put a few more dollars on, 5.16 for the place looks pretty damn good Edited October 7, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 7, 2016 Report Share Posted October 7, 2016 Shit ai Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 7, 2016 Report Share Posted October 7, 2016 (edited) Only saw the photo finish, far off the front 3? Edited October 7, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted October 7, 2016 Report Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Tesla said: Only saw the photo finish, far off the front 3? Front 4 led the whole way, Kart Em hit the lead by maybe half a length with 200 to go but then got overrun. Maybe a length from 3rd? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 7, 2016 Report Share Posted October 7, 2016 Oh well, still made more last time than was lost today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 10:10 AM, Tesla said: Cox plate confirmed for Hartnell. Makes u really wonder how highly they rate this Scottish horse... apparently it is the type that can sit in the front bunch and then sprint which it will want to be able to do seeing as every horse that I saw win at Caulfield on Saturday was in the first five down the hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 Caulfield Cup field is looking terrible: A VRC Oaks Winner (Like every year), some G2 Europeans and some Country Cup horses and not much else in between... Personally I think Real Love actually has a chance of winning it the race if the run fast enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 1 hour ago, cadete said: Caulfield Cup field is looking terrible: A VRC Oaks Winner (Like every year), some G2 Europeans and some Country Cup horses and not much else in between... Personally I think Real Love actually has a chance of winning it the race if the run fast enough. Been a while since we've had a top quality Caulfield Cup. I think Racing Victoria really should look at exempting the winner from a penalty in the Melbourne Cup. The Caulfield Cup is struggling to hold onto its mantle as 1 of our 4 majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 (edited) 31 minutes ago, HeartinHobart said: Been a while since we've had a top quality Caulfield Cup. I think Racing Victoria really should look at exempting the winner from a penalty in the Melbourne Cup. The Caulfield Cup is struggling to hold onto its mantle as 1 of our 4 majors. The thing is that this has been a slow trend with Australian Cups that has been going for over thirty years to get to the point where the Caulfield Cup is being effected (Something you would never believe when Northerly won it) and the reality is that it could end up affecting the Melbourne Cup. Just look at the Perth Cup which in the late 70's lifted its prize money to the same of the Melbourne Cup and was watched by everyone in Australia on NYD, then over time it became an oddity on the WA Racing Calendar as a G2 and eventually like the Brisbane Cup had its distance changed. Which is another thing... how are Australians meant to know if their horses is a true Handicap Stayer when there are so few races over 2800m now on the Australian Racing Calender. Edited October 11, 2016 by cadete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 41 minutes ago, cadete said: Which is another thing... how are Australians meant to know if their horses is a true Handicap Stayer when there are so few races over 2800m now on the Australian Racing Calender. It really makes it strange that the Melbourne Cup is the biggest race in Australia when there are fuck all races at the distance. And the few that do exist at Group level are all handicaps, would be good to have one sw race at that distance as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 Just now, Tesla said: It really makes it strange that the Melbourne Cup is the biggest race in Australia when there are fuck all races at the distance. And the few that do exist at Group level are all handicaps, would be good to have one sw race at that distance as well. The closest thing to WFA Staying Championship is the BMW over 2400m on Slipper Day... But it has lost a fair bit of relevance as WFA race since they made the 2000m of the Queen Elizabeth worth so much more than it originally was and that race is a few weeks later in the Randwick Carnival so horses have to go down in distance to contest both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 (edited) 18 hours ago, cadete said: Caulfield Cup field is looking terrible: A VRC Oaks Winner (Like every year), some G2 Europeans and some Country Cup horses and not much else in between... Personally I think Real Love actually has a chance of winning it the race if the run fast enough. Probably go with Sir Isaac Newton myself, looks the best value currently at $12. Exospheric and Articus the other two I liked but cant have them at a shorter price than Sir Isaac Newton. Jameka probably the right favourite but too short. Scottish and Real Love the only other chances youd think. Line through the rest. Edited October 11, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 2 hours ago, Tesla said: Probably go with Sir Isaac Newton myself, looks the best value currently at $12. Exospheric and Articus the other two I liked but cant have them at a shorter price than Sir Isaac Newton. Jameka probably the right favourite but too short. Scottish and Real Love the only other chances youd think. Line through the rest. Real Love is at the same lower weight as Jameka, is a horse rather than a mare and at Five times over the distance has placed four and won once as opposed to Jameka who has raced the distance twice for one place. The biggest concern record wise is for Real Love is he has only reeled of a second in his four times at Caulfield but I dont think any of those races were Staying Events. He need to be working strongly down the hill and a decent pace will also help immensely. Yet there is the factor that he is just completely outclassed by Jameka and the Internationals which also could likely occur. BTW Tesla I told you that you would be able to rule out most of this field as soon as it came out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 (edited) 25 minutes ago, cadete said: BTW Tesla I told you that you would be able to rule out most of this field as soon as it came out. Yes, but it helps that Jameka has smashed a lot of the others so it's hard to make a case for them. Fanatic is a decent 120/1 runner tbh if really really long shots are your thing. Edited October 11, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted October 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 Just now, Tesla said: Yes, but it helps that Jameka has smashed a lot of the others so it's hard to make a case for them. Fanatic is a decent 100/1 runner tbh if long shots are your thing. It's a worse than normal field, but the takes out rate in regards to who can win the race is only slighter higher than previous years... last years Cup also had a pretty logical winner due to its favourite doing well in WFA company. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 (edited) I actually think the top 15 are similar to most years lately but the bottom 4 or 5 runners simply shouldn't be in a Caulfield Cup. either way it is still a Caulfield Cup and another top race I can tick off! Edited October 11, 2016 by HeartinHobart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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