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The race to the plate


MHFC-FAN
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3 hours ago, bt50 said:

One hand on it now. 

Beat Sydney Wednesday and WU will need to do something extraordinary to catch us.

Grant is a big out for them, I don't see why we can't win against them.

If only we hadn't dropped points against Victory and WU.

Edited by malloy
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7 hours ago, malloy said:

Grant is a big out for them, I don't see why we can't win against them.

If only we hadn't dropped points against Victory and WU.

I look at bottling the 2-0 lead against a shithouse Perth side as more simple 2 points lost tbh. 

But regardless i dont think its all that likely to matter now. 7 points from our last 4 games will require WU to do 4 and a draw from 6 or better, im not sure they have that in them.

Esp if we can create the mental pressure of an 8 point lead on Wednesday.

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4 hours ago, bt50 said:

I look at bottling the 2-0 lead against a shithouse Perth side as more simple 2 points lost tbh. 

But regardless i dont think its all that likely to matter now. 7 points from our last 4 games will require WU to do 4 and a draw from 6 or better, im not sure they have that in them.

Esp if we can create the mental pressure of an 8 point lead on Wednesday.

We also bottled 2 points against Adelaide after being up 2-0. 

Hopefully Wellington turn up when they play generics next week... 

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We've got a tight schedule coming up including playing six matches in 15 or so days in steamy Thailand in a stadium that I understand has an artificial surface, and IMO it's a teensy bit early to forecast who will lift the Plate. Western Nomads have the easier fixture ahead just in terms of matches to be played and I'd say the odds are about 50:50 at the moment.

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3 hours ago, jw1739 said:

We've got a tight schedule coming up including playing six matches in 15 or so days in steamy Thailand in a stadium that I understand has an artificial surface, and IMO it's a teensy bit early to forecast who will lift the Plate. Western Nomads have the easier fixture ahead just in terms of matches to be played and I'd say the odds are about 50:50 at the moment.

Even money? Id take you as my bookie!

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Posted (edited)

So where are we at now... Let's look at the hypotheticals from here

Theoretically the race is looking like it will just be out of us and the generic nomads from the west. However mathematically there are a few teams with a chance. 

WU we know they still have the 'mathematical advantage' with 2 games in hand. Win those games and they are top by 1 point. 

Victory still has 4 games up their sleeve and if they were to win all of them, although unlikely they would be within 3 points of us with 4 games remaining. 

Sydney and Adelaide forget it. 

Wellington could go within 4 points if they were to win their 4 games in hand. After our performance against them I struggle to see them finishing top 3.

Macarthur and mariners would need to win all their remaining games and we would have to basically lose all our remaining for them to get into the hunt...

Getting closer to wrestling back control of the league into our own hands here. 

 

 

Edited by MHFC-FAN
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7 minutes ago, MHFC-FAN said:

So where are we at now... Let's look at the hypotheticals from here

Theoretically the race is looking like it will just be out of us and the generic nomads from the west. However mathematically there are a few teams with a chance. 

WU we know they still have the 'mathematical advantage' with 2 games in hand. Win those games and they are top by 1 point. 

Victory still has 4 games up their sleeve and if they were to win all of them, although unlikely they would be within 3 points of us with 4 games remaining. 

Sydney and Adelaide forget it. 

Wellington could go within 4 points if they were to win their 4 games in hand. After our performance against them I struggle to see them finishing top 3.

Macarthur and mariners would need to win all their remaining games and we would have to basically lose all our remaining for them to get into the hunt...

Getting closer to wrestling back control of the league into our own hands here. 

 

 

It's just us and WU for the plate, though I could see Victory being a banana skin in the finals. But Victory are too fragile and inconsistent to press for the plate. Macarthur are just playing for the six, they are inconsistent at best, and often poor. We're hitting form at the right time whilst WU's wheels look a bit loose. It's far from in the bag, but we're much better placed than we were even a couple of weeks ago. Better than 50:50 for us I'd say at the moment.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

It's just us and WU for the plate, though I could see Victory being a banana skin in the finals. But Victory are too fragile and inconsistent to press for the plate. Macarthur are just playing for the six, they are inconsistent at best, and often poor. We're hitting form at the right time whilst WU's wheels look a bit loose. It's far from in the bag, but we're much better placed than we were even a couple of weeks ago. Better than 50:50 for us I'd say at the moment.

Yes I was highlighting the 'theoretical possibilities' although from the real world and what we can witness the theory is flawed. 

I agree with your points as it looks like it's just going to be between us and WU based on the form and trends of the season. 

Definitely feel we're in great form as a team right now and may it continue for the rest of the season and ACL. 

I don't fear WU in the finals but I would be a little hesitant to play Victory in the finals... I feel like they would be the only team to give it a real shake in the 6.

Edited by MHFC-FAN
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I think our next 2 games will determine who wins the plate. 

As mentioned earlier I don't think WU can win all, or win enough points to overtake us, especially if we win our next 2.

Wednesday at home to Sydney, normally tough, and I can't see many goals but they have been pretty shit lately. 

Then away to Victory at Aami this Saturday. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but this will be their first ever home derby at Aami. Not including the 0:6 no crowd covid game last year.

I'm actually excited for this one.

Edited by Jovan
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2 hours ago, Jovan said:

I think our next 2 games will determine who wins the plate. 

As mentioned earlier I don't think WU can win all, or win enough points to overtake us, especially if we win our next 2.

Wednesday at home to Sydney, normally tough, and I can't see many goals but they have been pretty shit lately. 

Then away to Victory at Aami this Saturday. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but this will be their first ever home derby at Aami. Not including the 0:6 no crowd covid game last year.

I'm actually excited for this one.

Yeah I reckon you are right, especially if we were to win both games this week. Maybe even a win and a draw may be enough also...

A side note on Victory, they are playing in Perth late on Wednesday night so I expect them to be a bit tired come Saturday.

As for Victory's first home game at Aami this year you are correct. 

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Fat lady warming up. In all honesty, to lose this now would mean we'd have to not win any of our last three. Now it's in our hands and WU are so far behind, they aren't coming back. Put the Hun to bed tonight and we can take the lid off and crack open the beers.

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1 hour ago, fensaddler said:

Fat lady warming up. In all honesty, to lose this now would mean we'd have to not win any of our last three. Now it's in our hands and WU are so far behind, they aren't coming back. Put the Hun to bed tonight and we can take the lid off and crack open the beers.

Mathematically no but realistically yes! 

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So let's take a breath. WU now back to being able to overtake us by one point if they win all their games in hand. But they won't on recent form. If Victory win all their games in hand, they are equal on points, but still have to catch up our goal difference, and at least match what we do in the last two matches. Horrible night, horrible performance, but we are hardly out of it.

Bigger concerns TBH that we now have both Florin and O'Neill out, and they are key players for us, and in the midfield as well. Gomulka can do a job at 6, and we'll have to look to Tilio and Endoh to cover Florin. And my other concern is that we've been poorest against the two teams we're going to need to beat in finals - Victory and WU. I fear either could knock us out.

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26 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

So let's take a breath. WU now back to being able to overtake us by one point if they win all their games in hand. But they won't on recent form. If Victory win all their games in hand, they are equal on points, but still have to catch up our goal difference, and at least match what we do in the last two matches. Horrible night, horrible performance, but we are hardly out of it.

Bigger concerns TBH that we now have both Florin and O'Neill out, and they are key players for us, and in the midfield as well. Gomulka can do a job at 6, and we'll have to look to Tilio and Endoh to cover Florin. And my other concern is that we've been poorest against the two teams we're going to need to beat in finals - Victory and WU. I fear either could knock us out.

It’s actually scary if you look at our returns against Victory, WU and perhaps Adelaide - only draws and losses.

29 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

So let's take a breath. WU now back to being able to overtake us by one point if they win all their games in hand. But they won't on recent form. If Victory win all their games in hand, they are equal on points, but still have to catch up our goal difference, and at least match what we do in the last two matches. Horrible night, horrible performance, but we are hardly out of it.

Bigger concerns TBH that we now have both Florin and O'Neill out, and they are key players for us, and in the midfield as well. Gomulka can do a job at 6, and we'll have to look to Tilio and Endoh to cover Florin. And my other concern is that we've been poorest against the two teams we're going to need to beat in finals - Victory and WU. I fear either could knock us out.

quality coverage in midfield was supposed to be our designated player, time will tell if this be a critical factor. 

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9 hours ago, fensaddler said:

So let's take a breath. WU now back to being able to overtake us by one point if they win all their games in hand. But they won't on recent form. If Victory win all their games in hand, they are equal on points, but still have to catch up our goal difference, and at least match what we do in the last two matches. Horrible night, horrible performance, but we are hardly out of it.

That's the best perspective. The worst is that if WU and Victory win all their remaining games (not sure if they have to play each other?) and we fail in our last two then we finish third and empty handed.

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1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

That's the best perspective. The worst is that if WU and Victory win all their remaining games (not sure if they have to play each other?) and we fail in our last two then we finish third and empty handed.

Can't see that WU and Victory play each other again. Unfortunately looks like both teams' remaining games are mostly against teams in the bottom six. 

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1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

That's the best perspective. The worst is that if WU and Victory win all their remaining games (not sure if they have to play each other?) and we fail in our last two then we finish third and empty handed.

 

13 minutes ago, haz said:

Can't see that WU and Victory play each other again. Unfortunately looks like both teams' remaining games are mostly against teams in the bottom six. 

sadly the two teams from Geelong don't play each other again during the regular season. 

we are certainly vulnerable im the race to the plate, but then again so is everyone else.  WU have been very poor recently, and I can't see them winning all of their last 5.  the other mob have three possible banana skins in the smurfs, Macarthur and the Nix (and the Nix is the only home game there).

the other thing that plays into our hands IMO is the form line of many aleague teams has been very up and down.  we give the smurfs a canning only to lose last night (and to be frank, our first 45 was by far worst 45 all season).  the smurfs beat the Mariners 5-0 last night after the midweek game against us.  you could go on and on about the last two months alone.  the fact we only have two regular season games left could be a blessing.

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4 hours ago, mattyh001 said:

 

sadly the two teams from Geelong don't play each other again during the regular season. 

we are certainly vulnerable im the race to the plate, but then again so is everyone else.  WU have been very poor recently, and I can't see them winning all of their last 5.  the other mob have three possible banana skins in the smurfs, Macarthur and the Nix (and the Nix is the only home game there).

the other thing that plays into our hands IMO is the form line of many aleague teams has been very up and down.  we give the smurfs a canning only to lose last night (and to be frank, our first 45 was by far worst 45 all season).  the smurfs beat the Mariners 5-0 last night after the midweek game against us.  you could go on and on about the last two months alone.  the fact we only have two regular season games left could be a blessing.

Victory has always been up there. A mature team, individual quality, full use of the salary cap and an excellent coach. They had the better of us in all 3 games we played them. In the second game and last night PK did not adjust to their tactics or implement any lesson learned. Jamieson cannot control Rojas that’s been clear for some games now. Griffiths was also a bad choice against their forward line.

Call it stubbornness or believe in your own strength.

It’s not surprising really if you look the engine room of both teams. If you watch closely Marchan has had Flo in his pocket all 3 games as he man marks him. Brimmer and Brilliante are a hard match for Gomulka, Metcalfe and or Tillio.

People perhaps wrote them off looking at the ladder without checking the games played. They’ve been very unfortunate with the officiating in some of the games they’ve drawn. Also very impressive in the ACL qualifier, they seem to be able to turn it on when it matters.

Thank god the final series don’t mean anything anymore. It’s clear that you don’t want to play them again with our current approach.

Let’s hope we can win the league with the points we’ve gathered so far and start building for next season.

We’ve failed to beat any of the top teams this season, Victory, WU and Adelaide all draws and losses.

Edited by Mr MO
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4 hours ago, Mr MO said:

We’ve failed to beat any of the top teams this season, Victory, WU and Adelaide all draws and losses.

Factually true but we're being harsh. In all but last night's game we were competitive. All were marred by poor defensive lapses which conceded dumb goals, but...

We matched the Hun in the previous two games. We could have won either.

The two one-nil defeats to WU were the hardest won nils we got all season. We battered them for much of both matches. The 2-2 draw we could and should have won. They were very lucky to hang on. 

I may have wiped the Adelaide performances from my mind, but at least one we were in control and 2 up until injury time brain farts. 

We've chucked a lot of points away this season in draws that should have been wins, and IMHO WU have been incredibly lucky to get what they have out of us this season.

Macarthur and Sydney have both been strong teams overall this season (look at the table) but they've looked shite against us. That's not because they are fundamentally shite, but because we played well.

So noting in particular that I don't fancy facing the Hun in the finals, I think we can write the history of our season in different ways. Moreover I suspect we won't play as badly again this season, and Victory won't play as well.

Edited by fensaddler
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1 hour ago, fensaddler said:

 

Factually true but we're being harsh. In all but last night's game we were competitive. All were marred by poor defensive lapses which conceded dumb goals, but...

We matched the Hun in the previous two games. We could have won either.

The two one-nil defeats to WU were the hardest won nils we got all season. We battered them for much of both matches. The 2-2 draw we could and should have won. They were very lucky to hang on. 

I may have wiped the Adelaide performances from my mind, but at least one we were in control and 2 up until injury time brain farts. 

We've chucked a lot of points away this season in draws that should have been wins, and IMHO WU have been incredibly lucky to get what they have out of us this season.

Macarthur and Sydney have both been strong teams overall this season (look at the table) but they've looked shite against us. That's not because they are fundamentally shite, but because we played well.

So noting in particular that I don't fancy facing the Hun in the finals, I think we can write the history of our season in different ways. Moreover I suspect we won't play as badly again this season, and Victory won't play as well.

Does it really matter how these matches went if you end up being short on points against these same opponents by seasons end!? That was more the point I wanted to make.

They are essentially 6 point matches. 

Finals are meaningless now.

Edited by Mr MO
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39 minutes ago, Mr MO said:

Does it really matter how these matches went if you end up being short on points against these these same opponents by seasons end!? That was more the point I wanted to make.

They are essentially 6 point matches. 

Finals are meaningless now.

I don't disagree with you. This is ultimately a results business and we can't hide from the fact that we didn't get the results. But I guess what I'm seeking is a little more nuance. We're viewing the season from the perspective of last night's awful performance. Without this, I suspect our conclusions might feel different even if the results wouldn't change. I guess we're viewing the season right now through the prism of last night.

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24 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

I don't disagree with you. This is ultimately a results business and we can't hide from the fact that we didn't get the results. But I guess what I'm seeking is a little more nuance. We're viewing the season from the perspective of last night's awful performance. Without this, I suspect our conclusions might feel different even if the results wouldn't change. I guess we're viewing the season right now through the prism of last night.


Of course we can draw our conclusions by seasons ends!

It would be something I haven’t seen before were the champion fails to beat the top 3 or 4 all season when playing them 3 times and still ends up top.

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47 minutes ago, Mr MO said:


Of course we can draw our conclusions by seasons ends!

It would be something I haven’t seen before were the champion fails to beat the top 3 or 4 all season when playing them 3 times and still ends up top.

I'm not sure I think its that unlikely. 

Firstly that was our 4th loss for the season. And probably the worst loss we've had under Kisnorbo and probably the worst loss to the tards for many seasons. 

I still remember some shit shows at docklands. Anyway I digress.

Come end of the season I'm pretty confident well end up with the least total losses and most total points.

The other 2 Melbourne sides have also had some horrible losses, tards lost 0:3 at home to Perth, WU lost some doozies also.

Yes we didn't win the league last night, but even last year we had a wobble and it wouldn't be right to do it easily. 

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Also by the time we wrap up the ACL group stage. WU will have played their 24th game (equal games to us) and Victory will have played 25 games by that stage. 

So most likely before we head back to Aus we'll have a more definitive answer to the plate race... 

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