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The race to the plate


MHFC-FAN
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IMO it's going to be very close.

Remaining matches are:
City: Perth(A) and Phoenix (H):
WU: Perth, (Tas), Macarthur (Tas), CCM (A), Newcastle (A) and Adelaide (A);
MV: Brisbane (H), Newcastle (A), Macarthur (A), Brisbane (A), Phoenix (H) and Sydney (A).

TBH, the three of us ought to win all our remaining matches. Our advantage is that we have the points on the board, and our goal difference. Our disadvantage is that we have a tight schedule in the ACL in an inhospitable climate, and we've got several injuries. The slightest slip by any of us could decide the title.

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5 hours ago, jw1739 said:

IMO it's going to be very close.

Remaining matches are:
City: Perth(A) and Phoenix (H):
WU: Perth, (Tas), Macarthur (Tas), CCM (A), Newcastle (A) and Adelaide (A);
MV: Brisbane (H), Newcastle (A), Macarthur (A), Brisbane (A), Phoenix (H) and Sydney (A).

TBH, the three of us ought to win all our remaining matches. Our advantage is that we have the points on the board, and our goal difference. Our disadvantage is that we have a tight schedule in the ACL in an inhospitable climate, and we've got several injuries. The slightest slip by any of us could decide the title.

Pressure is mostly on Victory as they pretty much have to win nearly all of the Remaining 6 games or at least 5 wins minimum. 

WU last 3 are particularly going to be difficult matches for them. 

Who knows how we'll go away in Perth but we certainly should beat Wellington at home... 

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On 11/04/2022 at 6:52 PM, MHFC-FAN said:

Pressure is mostly on Victory as they pretty much have to win nearly all of the Remaining 6 games or at least 5 wins minimum. 

WU last 3 are particularly going to be difficult matches for them. 

Who knows how we'll go away in Perth but we certainly should beat Wellington at home... 

Thanks to Brisbane, victory now has to win all 5 of their remaining games to even have a chance of winning the plate. Big ask now for them... 

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12 minutes ago, MHFC-FAN said:

Thanks to Brisbane, victory now has to win all 5 of their remaining games to even have a chance of winning the plate. Big ask now for them... 

Well they are now 11 points and a significant goal difference behind with only three games in hand. They need to win four of five remaining and hope we lose our last two. It's an increasingly unlikely scenario. Just as WU making up an 8 point deficit is unlikely. Not impossible, just a big ask for either. 

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5 minutes ago, MHFC-FAN said:

Eh? 

Victory have 5 matches to go, maximum 15 points, plus the 35 they already have, equals 50 points.

WU likewise have 5 matches to go, plus the 38 they already have means they can reach 53 points.

City have 2 matches to go, maximum 6 points, plus the 46 we already have means we can reach 52 points.

But neither WU nor City will necessarily get the maximum points in their remaining matches.

So any of the three clubs can still win the Plate.

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3 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Victory have 5 matches to go, maximum 15 points, plus the 35 they already have, equals 50 points.

WU likewise have 5 matches to go, plus the 38 they already have means they can reach 53 points.

City have 2 matches to go, maximum 6 points, plus the 46 we already have means we can reach 52 points.

But neither WU nor City will necessarily get the maximum points in their remaining matches.

So any of the three clubs can still win the Plate.

Yes mathematically that is correct. However with the remaining games for Victory I don't really see them winning 4/5 of those games. 

WU last 3 will likely be difficult for them and I see them probably dropping points. 

We will probably need at least a win and maybe a draw in the last 2 games depending. 

10 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

Well they are now 11 points and a significant goal difference behind with only three games in hand. They need to win four of five remaining and hope we lose our last two. It's an increasingly unlikely scenario. Just as WU making up an 8 point deficit is unlikely. Not impossible, just a big ask for either. 

Yes so if they win those 3 games in hand they'll still be 2 points behind. There's certainly some tough fixtures coming up in their last 5 and I believe they are more likely to be dropping points.

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It's been a funny season. I haven't watched any non-city games but clearly every team has had their inconsistent patches. And it is very unusual to see a team at the top of the table not able to beat the 3 teams below them yet still win the plate. 

But the plate is all about endurance. It's not a sprint. Victory and WU have lifted big time for their games against us because we are their rivals and we are the champions. They've done that quite well this season but then they've clearly not replicated that enough in other games and continually dropped points in games they would consider must-win. 

 

We too have thrown plenty of points away but we've been the best at gathering 3 points consistently when we may not have played that well. 

 

So imo we deservedly sit at the top of the table and I think now with victory drawing at home to Brisbane, we will win the plate. WU have fallen apart and I don't see Aloisi being able to turn that around for them despite them mathematically still being in the best position 

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58 minutes ago, MHFC-FAN said:

Yes mathematically that is correct. However with the remaining games for Victory I don't really see them winning 4/5 of those games. 

WU last 3 will likely be difficult for them and I see them probably dropping points. 

We will probably need at least a win and maybe a draw in the last 2 games depending. 

Yes so if they win those 3 games in hand they'll still be 2 points behind. There's certainly some tough fixtures coming up in their last 5 and I believe they are more likely to be dropping points.

I guess the best thing about it all is that both WU and Victory are playing teams who are mostly still in contention for the top 6 six. Something you won’t find in a competition without a final series.

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12 minutes ago, mattyh001 said:

i've said this before, plenty of banana peels out there.  Brisbane proved that tonight.  in so many ways its great we are the ones with the points tucked away.

This. Our big advantage is that we already have the points and they don't. Put it this way. We can only drop six points. They can both drop fifteen.

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26 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

This. Our big advantage is that we already have the points and they don't. Put it this way. We can only drop six points. They can both drop fifteen.

Also Victory are playing 4 of their last 5 matches away from home 

WU play their last 3 away. 

It's all to do for them and the pressure is all on them, not us. 

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8 hours ago, Mr MO said:

I guess the best thing about it all is that both WU and Victory are playing teams who are mostly still in contention for the top 6 six. Something you won’t find in a competition without a final series.

That is so, but looking at quite a few other leagues they are still playing for something, be it a promotion play-off, an international competition, to avoid relegation or a relegation play-off. Some also distribute the TV/streaming money according to league position.

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So what do people think is the least we can do in the final two games to win the plate?

I would be confident if we got a win and a draw. That would see us finish on 50 points. WU would need to win four and draw one (that draw against us) out of five. Victory would need to win all 5 and overcome the goal difference.

If we only win one game and lose the other. We would finish on 49 points. WU would need to only win four games out of five, and Victory would still need to win all 5 games.

(Anyone see anything wrong with my math??)

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5 minutes ago, haz said:

So what do people think is the least we can do in the final two games to win the plate?

I would be confident if we got a win and a draw. That would see us finish on 50 points. WU would need to win four and draw one (that draw against us) out of five. Victory would need to win all 5 and overcome the goal difference.

If we only win one game and lose the other. We would finish on 49 points. WU would need to only win four games out of five, and Victory would still need to win all 5 games.

(Anyone see anything wrong with my math??)

49 points will be enough. 

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1 hour ago, haz said:

So what do people think is the least we can do in the final two games to win the plate?

I would be confident if we got a win and a draw. That would see us finish on 50 points. WU would need to win four and draw one (that draw against us) out of five. Victory would need to win all 5 and overcome the goal difference.

If we only win one game and lose the other. We would finish on 49 points. WU would need to only win four games out of five, and Victory would still need to win all 5 games.

(Anyone see anything wrong with my math??)

Victory ain't going to win all 5 of their last games, let alone gather a 20+ goal difference. 

If WU were to win 4 and draw 1 of their last 5 then we would need to win our last 2 to finish top of the league. 

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17 minutes ago, Imtellingyou said:

We are very likely to win the plate. Although,  it's unlikely to win the Championship. This is based on our poor head to head this season against top teams. Add injuries and the group stage interruption. 

Yeah I am starting to feel the same. We'll hopefully be finishing the season with the one trophy and may struggle in the finals for the reasons stated above... 

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1 hour ago, Baka1 said:

I’ll take first place and a champions league spot as a success for this season. 

Would be a good reward considering it's usually difficult to go back to back. We will still have a good chance to get the dunny seat finishing first. But see what players we have available come finals... 

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2 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Astonishingly Phoenix can still also theoretically win the Plate if results were to go their way.

They beat Perth today, 1-0. What on earth has happened to Perth this season?

Perth are going for the horrendous winless streak that we set as Melbourne Heart. They are now upto 13 games without a win I believe... 

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6 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Astonishingly Phoenix can still also theoretically win the Plate if results were to go their way.

They beat Perth today, 1-0. What on earth has happened to Perth this season?

Well hopefully they don't hit form by the time we play them.

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11 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Astonishingly Phoenix can still also theoretically win the Plate if results were to go their way.

They beat Perth today, 1-0. What on earth has happened to Perth this season?

Good on Nix, but very unlikely. Three other candidates would have to lose everything, and Nix win everything. Perth are a mess, a mix of COVID disruption, poor recruitment and horrendous injury problems. 

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24 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

Good on Nix, but very unlikely. Three other candidates would have to lose everything, and Nix win everything. Perth are a mess, a mix of COVID disruption, poor recruitment and horrendous injury problems. 

Just a shame WU needs to play Perth this Saturday.

Edited by Mr MO
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On 13/04/2022 at 10:31 AM, MHFC-FAN said:

Victory ain't going to win all 5 of their last games, let alone gather a 20+ goal difference. 

If WU were to win 4 and draw 1 of their last 5 then we would need to win our last 2 to finish top of the league. 

In all likeliness this is true. But bring to your attention Melbourne Heart, who would go on a 5 game win streak in 13/14 after being bottom of the table and registering one win in sixteen rounds. 

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Did anybody read about the penalties Sydney FC have received today for substitution breaches. 2 games have been converted to 3-0 losses, games against WU and us! We’ve improved our goal tally.

It seems that this has no immediate result on current points ladder tally as Sydney lost both games anyway but can you imagine that the title would be decided in this matter, in a race were every point counts!

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29 minutes ago, Mr MO said:

Did anybody read about the penalties Sydney FC have received today for substitution breaches. 2 games have been converted to 3-0 losses, games against WU and us! We’ve improved our goal tally.

It seems that this has no immediate result on current points ladder tally as Sydney lost both games anyway but can you imagine that the title would be decided in this matter, in a race were every point counts!

I've just read it after your post. Goodness me, I had no idea that there was such a rule, and it goes a way to explain why our own bench is sometimes the way it is. Visa players may not be on the bench only because of this rule. Quite extraordinary.

https://keepup.com.au/news/sydney-penalised-for-alm-bench-rule-breach

So has our goal difference improved by 2? That could ultimately decide the Plate.

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1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

I've just read it after your post. Goodness me, I had no idea that there was such a rule, and it goes a way to explain why our own bench is sometimes the way it is. Visa players may not be on the bench only because of this rule. Quite extraordinary.

https://keepup.com.au/news/sydney-penalised-for-alm-bench-rule-breach

So has our goal difference improved by 2? That could ultimately decide the Plate.

Yes we got 2 goals extra.

Imagine if WU had lost their Sydney.

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13 minutes ago, Mr MO said:

Yes we got 2 goals extra.

Imagine if WU had lost their Sydney.

The real losers here are MV, and that's not fair on them if the premiership goes down to goal difference or goals scored, whether by City or WU. Whatever our rivalry with them, fairness must prevail. Sydney might or might not reach the six and finals, but finals lead nowhere in terms of Asian football, whereas first and second on the ladder do.

We would certainly be screaming if it was City who were losers out of this.

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18 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

The real losers here are MV, and that's not fair on them if the premiership goes down to goal difference or goals scored, whether by City or WU. Whatever our rivalry with them, fairness must prevail. Sydney might or might not reach the six and finals, but finals lead nowhere in terms of Asian football, whereas first and second on the ladder do.

We would certainly be screaming if it was City who were losers out of this.

Yeah it’s odd, I would have thought you either fine them more heavily or you apply penalties points in the following season (deduction) but never in the season. This could have had disastrous consequences in the title race. On the other hand if Sydney would have won our game we would have been very pleased with a 3-0 turn over.

Edited by Mr MO
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Another A League memorable moment. 

If anyone around the world wanted a template to run a league perfectly they should just look at the A League and everything we do and do the complete opposite. 

WTF, seriously 3 breaches, how is that remotely possible. This is supposed to be a proffessional sport.

Everyone involved should be ashamed and just leave. Just get the fuck out.

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1 hour ago, Mr MO said:

Yeah it’s odd, I would have thought you either fine them more heavily or you apply penalties points in the following season (deduction) but never in the season. This could have had disastrous consequences in the title race. On the other hand if Sydney would have won our game we would have been very pleased with a 3-0 turn over.

It may very well still do so if the league positions are determined by either goal difference or goals "scored." 

Do the English leagues actually change the result of matches retrospectively, or rely on the points deduction in the following season? Some clubs start the following season with massive deductions and end up being relegated. I think this is about to happen for Derby County who are likely to be relegated to League 1 via a huge points deduction for financial irregularities.

You will recall that Perth were docked points after the Andy Keogh affair, but that was also in the same season as the affair itself and meant a different set of clubs participated in the finals for that season.

I wouldn't be surprised if MV lodge some sort of appeal. 

 

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46 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

It may very well still do so if the league positions are determined by either goal difference or goals "scored." 

Do the English leagues actually change the result of matches retrospectively, or rely on the points deduction in the following season? Some clubs start the following season with massive deductions and end up being relegated. I think this is about to happen for Derby County who are likely to be relegated to League 1 via a huge points deduction for financial irregularities.

You will recall that Perth were docked points after the Andy Keogh affair, but that was also in the same season as the affair itself and meant a different set of clubs participated in the finals for that season.

I wouldn't be surprised if MV lodge some sort of appeal. 

 

It’s not any easy one as the rules are probably more aimed towards the Sydney opposition. Let’s say we would had lost to Sydney due to these bench irregularities, then we want our points this season right?

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1 minute ago, Mr MO said:

It’s not any easy one as the rules are probably more aimed towards the Sydney opposition. Let’s say we would had lost to Sydney due to these bench irregularities, then want our points this this season right?

Well, is that any different from, say, the wrong player being sent off? The result isn't changed retrospectively. I think we should make sure that the punishment is felt only by the offending club. It's not that we and WU get a benefit, for me it's that MV are effectively the only club that could feel a punishment, and they weren't even involved in any of the matches called into question. Another thing that bothers me is that APL has chosen to ignore, in terms of punishment, the first breach of the rule - there can be no justification for this.

IMO the existing results for this season should stand, and Sydney should start next season on -9 points.

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