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The race to the plate


MHFC-FAN
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So we've got 5 games left and are currently the benchmark on 21 games played for 40 points. 

The generic team from the west still have 2 games in hand and theoretically could go top by 3 points if they win both those games. 

Adelaide currently in 3rd have 1 game in hand but even if they win that we would have a fairly comfortable 9 point gap over them.

Victory have 4 games in hand and if they somehow fluke 4 wins in those games would go within 3 points of us. 

Macarthur have 3 games in hand and could go within 6 points if they were to win those games. 

Sydney at best would be 10points behind if they win their 2 games in hand. 

As for the bottom 6 only Wellington could give it a shake. They would need to pull a rabbit out of the hat and win all 5 of their games in hand. 

It's looking like it's going to be between us and United for the plate. Although we will need them to drop some games for us to wrestle back the plate... 

 

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Had a look at that last night and realised that only WU (unless City manages to lose all their remaining games) is in the race. And more than likely when we play ACL they will be strolling in. However I am optimistic that they will drop points along the way.

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Okay lets look at this.

As rightly stated the only realistic contender for the plate is Western United. 

Currently 3 points behind 2 games in hand. And behind in GD which imo equates 1 point. (Therefore in real terms 4 points to make up).

Now they have an interesting run, 4 home (Aami which is still in real terms neutral considering actual attendance, but regardless not really as advantages as would be normally regarded) 

Home they got Mariners Wellington , Perth and Macarthur. 

Then they have last 3 away. Mariners Newcastle and Adelaide. 

Our run is Wellington away, Sydney home and Victory away (derby at Aami)

Then we go away to ACL.

Return Perth away and finish Wellington home. 

On paper we probably have a tougher run, but Western has less room for error.

If we can get 3 wins out of our last 5 I reackon 49 points will win it.

I can't see Western winning 4 and drawing 1 of last 6. 

If they drop any points of their next 2 they are cooked.

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3 hours ago, NewConvert said:

Had a look at that last night and realised that only WU (unless City manages to lose all their remaining games) is in the race. And more than likely when we play ACL they will be strolling in. However I am optimistic that they will drop points along the way.

Unfortunately we're going to have to rely on WU to drop points.  Ultimately we will need to stay basically undefeated for the remainder of the season... 

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1 hour ago, Jovan said:

Okay lets look at this.

As rightly stated the only realistic contender for the plate is Western United. 

Currently 3 points behind 2 games in hand. And behind in GD which imo equates 1 point. (Therefore in real terms 4 points to make up).

Now they have an interesting run, 4 home (Aami which is still in real terms neutral considering actual attendance, but regardless not really as advantages as would be normally regarded) 

Home they got Mariners Wellington , Perth and Macarthur. 

Then they have last 3 away. Mariners Newcastle and Adelaide. 

Our run is Wellington away, Sydney home and Victory away (derby at Aami)

Then we go away to ACL.

Return Perth away and finish Wellington home. 

On paper we probably have a tougher run, but Western has less room for error.

If we can get 3 wins out of our last 5 I reackon 49 points will win it.

I can't see Western winning 4 and drawing 1 of last 6. 

If they drop any points of their next 2 they are cooked.

What are the dates of the various matches? Because of our ACL commitment, are we the last team to finish? IMO it's generally better - as we showed last season - to have the points already on the board rather than matches in hand.

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

What are the dates of the various matches? Because of our ACL commitment, are we the last team to finish? IMO it's generally better - as we showed last season - to have the points already on the board rather than matches in hand.

We will be away from the 10th of April until the 3rd of May. Western United will have played 3 games while we are contesting the ACL group stage. 

We will likely be pretty buggered after the ACL given we will play 6 games in the space of 15 days... 

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Edited by MHFC-FAN
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Useful to factor in the ACL fixtures into the above. In the ACL we play on Fri 15, Mon 18, Thu 21, Sun 24, Wed 27 and Sat 30. So whilst we have nearly a week after the derby to get ready for the first ACL match, we've then got to leave Malaysia after a match on Saturday, travel, acclimatise and recover to play in Perth on the Wednesday. Helps at least that it's Perth rather than the east coast. And also a blessing that we've got until the Monday to play the Nix match at home. If nothing else and regardless of where we are in the league by then, we ought to try and give them a raucous homecoming crowd.

Edited by fensaddler
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Nix play their previous match to the one against us on the previous Thursday, so they'll have no better turn around. The final round of matches is from 7th to 10th May, with WU playing on the Sunday, one day before us, and the last match the day after our final match.

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2 hours ago, jw1739 said:

If we make it only to second place, at least we will participate in the 2023 AFC Cup. Some sort of consolation anyway.

Due to all AFC club competitions shifting calendars apparently there will be no AFC qualification for any AFC league this season.

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12 minutes ago, Zanty said:

Due to all AFC club competitions shifting calendars apparently there will be no AFC qualification for any AFC league this season.

So no value in winning the plate other than the glory of it and the look on Alouisi's face?

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25 minutes ago, Zanty said:

Due to all AFC club competitions shifting calendars apparently there will be no AFC qualification for any AFC league this season.

https://www.sportcal.com/News/FeaturedNews/137090 I think I'm correct in saying that we are the only AFC member country in the Southern Hemisphere, so when the article talks about an Autumn to Spring season it actually means our Spring to Autumn...which might interfere with any move to winter football for us?

LiveScore still shows our Premier playing in the ACL and runner-up playing in the AFC Cup.

It's the sort of thing that I would have hoped that APL would make clear to fans in Oz what the real situation is.

Edited by jw1739
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54 minutes ago, Zanty said:

Due to all AFC club competitions shifting calendars apparently there will be no AFC qualification for any AFC league this season.

So are you saying the only way to qualify is to win the grand final? 

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3 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

The opposite according to jw1739 above. It's the plate winner and runner up which qualify for something. Big dance means nothing.

Ah I see. Premier plate is essential this season then! Would be impressive if we could pinch it this season. 

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17 minutes ago, MHFC-FAN said:

Ah I see. Premier plate is essential this season then! Would be impressive if we could pinch it this season. 

It will be like that going forward I understand.

Winning the league, runners up and the FFA cup is what matters for the ACL as per worlds football format. 

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1 hour ago, Mr MO said:

It will be like that going forward I understand.

Winning the league, runners up and the FFA cup is what matters for the ACL as per worlds football format. 

My understanding is that even that is not quite correct.

The winner of the League - the Premier - will be entered for the Asian Champions League.

The runner-up in the League and the winner of the Australia Cup will be entered for the the Asian Football Confederation Cup. Our "Champion" will not be recognised by the Asian Football Confederation.

I'm not sure what happens if either the Premier or the runner-up wins the Australia Cup, but it will be explained somewhere in the Rules.

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2 hours ago, jw1739 said:

My understanding is that even that is not quite correct.

The winner of the League - the Premier - will be entered for the Asian Champions League.

The runner-up in the League and the winner of the Australia Cup will be entered for the the Asian Football Confederation Cup. Our "Champion" will not be recognised by the Asian Football Confederation.

I'm not sure what happens if either the Premier or the runner-up wins the Australia Cup, but it will be explained somewhere in the Rules.

Sorry that’s what I meant, all three teams qualify but it depends on our country ranking where the teams end up in Asia - ACL direct, ACL qualification or Asian Cup.

I actually thought that the winner of the FFA cup will get an ACL qualification round first but all this will change from season to season depending on the coefficient list.

We didn’t do ourselves any favours recently with the ranking, by not playing.

Further it’s very simple, the champion is the winner of the regular season. I complete understand why it’s not recognised. From memory it was previously only done as the winner of the regular season didn’t get to the mandatory amount of matches, which is now solved I think.

Edited by Mr MO
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I think 50 points is the magic number.

3 wins and a draw from last 5 will mean WU will need 4 wins and two draws, or 5 wins from 7 which i think will be a pretty decent task for them. Our GD is likely to play a role from here imo.

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34 minutes ago, bt50 said:

I think 50 points is the magic number.

3 wins and a draw from last 5 will mean WU will need 4 wins and two draws, or 5 wins from 7 which i think will be a pretty decent task for them. Our GD is likely to play a role from here imo.

GD is as good as 1 point, especially considering they rarely smash teams.

I don't think they have the depth to continue, they've done well so far and credit needs to be given. And I think a few need to rethink their opinions on Aloisi (including yours truly).

He is actually turning into a decent coach.

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9 minutes ago, Jovan said:

GD is as good as 1 point, especially considering they rarely smash teams.

I don't think they have the depth to continue, they've done well so far and credit needs to be given. And I think a few need to rethink their opinions on Aloisi (including yours truly).

He is actually turning into a decent coach.

My brother has always said that he was a decent coach. I disagreed but did say that he needed to go to a lower league to earn his stripes. In the end it has been over six years and three A-League teams for Aloisi to learn how to be a coach. Still not convinced.

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52 minutes ago, Jovan said:

GD is as good as 1 point, especially considering they rarely smash teams.

I don't think they have the depth to continue, they've done well so far and credit needs to be given. And I think a few need to rethink their opinions on Aloisi (including yours truly).

He is actually turning into a decent coach.

He did a decent job at Brisbane. It was clear he’d learnt from his mistakes.

let’s face it a busted arse outfit like Heart needed an experienced campaigner not a novice. It was a tough gig by any stretch.

PS I think goal difference is half a point.

Edited by Shahanga
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50 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

He did a decent job at Brisbane. It was clear he’d learnt from his mistakes.

let’s face it a busted arse outfit like Heart needed an experienced campaigner not a novice. It was a tough gig by any stretch.

PS I think goal difference is half a point.

Goal difference is worth nothing until it's worth everything.

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3 hours ago, Shahanga said:

 

PS I think goal difference is half a point.

Whats half a point, nearly a draw?

Currently GD is at 9 goals. And for me unless your playing kids or the tards last year no way are you catching that. Therefore equal points and a plus 9 GD is minimum a draw, which actually is currently 1 point.

Edited by Jovan
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3 minutes ago, Jovan said:

Whats half a point, nearly a drawer.

Currently GD is at 9 goals. And for me unless your playing kids or the tards last year no way are you catching that. Therefore equal points and a plus 9 GD is minimum a drawer, which actually is currently 1 point.

Well it will only matter if we were to finish on equal points right? Then we would be first on GD?

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Just now, MHFC-FAN said:

Well it will only matter if we were to finish on equal points right? Then we would be first on GD?

This is the point I'm trying to make...goal difference means nothing at all unless two teams finish on equal points, and then it is the first way in which the final positions are determined. It can be as good as an extra point, but it's not equal to anything.

If the two teams have the same GD then I think the next decider is which team has scored the most goals. I forget what the sequence is after that.

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9 hours ago, jw1739 said:

This is the point I'm trying to make...goal difference means nothing at all unless two teams finish on equal points, and then it is the first way in which the final positions are determined. It can be as good as an extra point, but it's not equal to anything.

If the two teams have the same GD then I think the next decider is which team has scored the most goals. I forget what the sequence is after that.

The rules of the competition can be found here and explain the sequence that is mentioned above: https://keepup.com.au/more/competition-rules

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If WU wins the plate they will dwarf our achievement as the club. We needed more than 10 years,  former and current socceroos, international coaches,  contacts with the best in Manchester and CFG,  boutique home stadium, world class training facilities,  youth and academy programs,  strong funding,  respectful membership base, etc. Basically everything they don't have. We won it in the weakest covid affected season with the extra strong team. 

Nothing less than winning the Champions league would be good enough in that case. 

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10 minutes ago, Imtellingyou said:

If WU wins the plate they will dwarf our achievement as the club. We needed more than 10 years,  former and current socceroos, international coaches,  contacts with the best in Manchester and CFG,  boutique home stadium, world class training facilities,  youth and academy programs,  strong funding,  respectful membership base, etc. Basically everything they don't have. We won it in the weakest covid affected season with the extra strong team. 

Nothing less than winning the Champions league would be good enough in that case. 

Maybe,

Or they just got lucky.

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45 minutes ago, Imtellingyou said:

If WU wins the plate they will dwarf our achievement as the club. We needed more than 10 years,  former and current socceroos, international coaches,  contacts with the best in Manchester and CFG,  boutique home stadium, world class training facilities,  youth and academy programs,  strong funding,  respectful membership base, etc. Basically everything they don't have. We won it in the weakest covid affected season with the extra strong team. 

Nothing less than winning the Champions league would be good enough in that case. 

Oh, I think we have all been aware that as a club we have consistently under-performed against our potential.

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18 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Oh, I think we have all been aware that as a club we have consistently under-performed against our potential.

It’s very simple in this league and it’s been done before in the past. Maximise your salary cap and put your money in your best 12/13 players. Even then with shit football you can win something…..

Every season except last year we’ve had something not right in the recruitment department and thus so the result speak for itself. Saying that WU isn’t there yet!

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3 minutes ago, bt50 said:

One hand on it now. 

Beat Sydney Wednesday and WU will need to do something extraordinary to catch us.

For all the F1 fans out there. "That's provisional pole" at the moment. Even if WU win their 2 games in hand we'll only be behind by 1 point.

Pressure is all on them at this point in time... 

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