The Coronavirus Thread (We nearly didn't see City in the 2021 Grand Final)

[jw1739]

38 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

The relationship between socio-economic status and vaccination rates has been clear for quite some time. I put it down to a fundamental failure in the messaging. VicGov should have seen this coming, because I'm pretty sure that it is evident elsewhere as well, and they've failed to address it. This is one thing that NSW got right - they saw it and acted by going out to the LGAs that weren't responding.

[haz]

3 hours ago, belaguttman said:

When was this last dated? I thought Hume were smashing it now with vaccinations. 

[belaguttman]

3 hours ago, jw1739 said:

The relationship between socio-economic status and vaccination rates has been clear for quite some time. I put it down to a fundamental failure in the messaging. VicGov should have seen this coming, because I'm pretty sure that it is evident elsewhere as well, and they've failed to address it. This is one thing that NSW got right - they saw it and acted by going out to the LGAs that weren't responding.

The same thing happened in NSW, the infection spread through western Sydney. NSW's management has been extremely poor in my opinion, there's not much that they've got right apart from a decision 20 years ago to create decentralised health districts with integrated contact tracing. We are in lockdown now because of NSW's cavalier approach. NSW is only out of lockdown now because the PM of NSW gave them vaccine priority, as he should have, not because they've managed it well. We took a hit for the country last year to contain our outbreak, NSW was happy to spread it up nd down the east coast and infect areas of regional NSW where it'll be very hard to shift.

IMHO vaccination should have been offered along the lines of transmission, essential workers first, rather than by age, and mandated for these groups from the first day.

7 minutes ago, haz said:

When was this last dated? I thought Hume were smashing it now with vaccinations. 

I think that it's really graphing infection rate against tax rate, not at any particular time. Hume is doing very well now and has an R eff well below 1

[jw1739]

Not defending the Feds at all but weren't they taking advice from ATAGI all the way through and I thought the priority groups at the start of the vaccination program would have been determined from that advice? At that time the approach seemed to be to vaccinate the people most likely to die if they became infected, and did not focus on the lines of transmission at all.

Another question if I may @belaguttman? Do you happen to know what progress, if any, has been made on the Victorian Quarantine Facility? I haven't seen it mentioned for some time? However I did read that the WA one was to be open later this year.

[malloy]

@belaguttman and @jw1739, do either of you know when regional Victoria will open up to Metropolitan Victoria under the roadmap? I can not find anything that clearly states what the rule is/will be. 

[jw1739]

@malloy I have assumed that when the following applies we will all be able to travel around the State.

I have also assumed that this means all LGAs in the State are at 80%+ rather than it being a State-wide average, but I'm not sure about that.

Roadmap downloaded from https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorias-roadmap

[belaguttman]

1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

@malloy I have assumed that when the following applies we will all be able to travel around the State.

I have also assumed that this means all LGAs in the State are at 80%+ rather than it being a State-wide average, but I'm not sure about that.

Roadmap downloaded from https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorias-roadmap

Yes and no. We will all come under the same rules, but as there's so little healthcare available in the regions, I think that the trigger for regional shutdowns should be lower than a trigger in Melbourne, it may be that certain parts of the state are in short term lockdown

[jw1739]

It's probably deliberately vague to give the government room to move.

[jw1739]

Wow, how the rhetoric has changed. From "aggressive suppression" to "deliver the roadmap."

I don't know what emotion I'm supposed to be feeling. ATM it's just numbness.

[jw1739]

TBH I think we're just showing that target vaccination levels of 70% and 80% are next to fucking useless. And I don't know how long it will take before Sutton, Andrews and Co. realise that.

[Shahanga]

23 hours ago, malloy said:

@belaguttman and @jw1739, do either of you know when regional Victoria will open up to Metropolitan Victoria under the roadmap? I can not find anything that clearly states what the rule is/will be. 

March 2033

[belaguttman]

1 hour ago, Shahanga said:

March 2033

Yes, as soon as we reach the 80% eligible vaccination target. It was projected to be November 6th, it's likely to be a little earlier at current vaccination rates

[belaguttman]

22 hours ago, jw1739 said:

It's probably deliberately vague to give the government room to move.

Vague in terms of date because it depends on a vaccination level. It's hard enough for any of us to even plan for tomorrow, there's no point in being unrealistically specific with regards to a date. In the words of JM Keynes

Quote

“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” 
― John Maynard Keynes

4 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Wow, how the rhetoric has changed. From "aggressive suppression" to "deliver the roadmap."

I don't know what emotion I'm supposed to be feeling. ATM it's just numbness.

Of course, aggressive suppression was possible with the first version of Covid, not achievable with delta. Also, in the words of Keynes

Quote

“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?” 
― John Maynard Keynes

 

[NewConvert]

7 hours ago, jw1739 said:

TBH I think we're just showing that target vaccination levels of 70% and 80% are next to fucking useless. And I don't know how long it will take before Sutton, Andrews and Co. realise that.

I keep telling people that the vaccinations are like wearing helmets and pads when riding a bike. They don't prevent from coming off your bike but when you do you are not hurt as badly.

And of course you can't control the behaviour of individuals which is why they talk %.

[jw1739]

19 minutes ago, NewConvert said:

I keep telling people that the vaccinations are like wearing helmets and pads when riding a bike. They don't prevent from coming off your bike but when you do you are not hurt as badly.

And of course you can't control the behaviour of individuals which is why they talk %.

Well I don't know what the various issues are that are dragging us down, but 36,000 vaccinations per day is nowhere near the 90,000+ that NSW achieved when it targeted Local Government Areas of concern. And I don't think I've read anything that tells me that Victoria is doing anything special to target the LGAs of concern in this State, although I may have missed it. So from a better starting position we are now worse than NSW was. But never mind, seemingly as long as we're in the range predicted by the modelling it's all OK now.

As for individuals - I completely agree. Since the beginning of so-called Lockdown VI I have been commenting on how many people in my LGA are taking not a blind bit of notice of the most basic of all preventive measures - wearing a mask properly (if at all). Many people in Bayside seem to breathe through their chin. I presume that this anatomical deformity is accompanied by related deformity in their brain.

[NewConvert]

8 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Well I don't know what the various issues are that are dragging us down, but 36,000 vaccinations per day is nowhere near the 90,000+ that NSW achieved when it targeted Local Government Areas of concern. And I don't think I've read anything that tells me that Victoria is doing anything special to target the LGAs of concern in this State, although I may have missed it. So from a better starting position we are now worse than NSW was. But never mind, seemingly as long as we're in the range predicted by the modelling it's all OK now.

As for individuals - I completely agree. Since the beginning of so-called Lockdown VI I have been commenting on how many people in my LGA are taking not a blind bit of notice of the most basic of all preventive measures - wearing a mask properly (if at all). Many people in Bayside seem to breathe through their chin. I presume that this anatomical deformity is accompanied by related deformity in their brain.

What is odd is that when I read newspapers around the world and talk to friends in Europe, there is no uniformity on people getting vaccinated. The rates vary even when you take into account access to medical services and geography. So in that respect it is not unique to Australia.

[belaguttman]

19 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Well I don't know what the various issues are that are dragging us down, but 36,000 vaccinations per day is nowhere near the 90,000+ that NSW achieved when it targeted Local Government Areas of concern. And I don't think I've read anything that tells me that Victoria is doing anything special to target the LGAs of concern in this State, although I may have missed it. So from a better starting position we are now worse than NSW was. But never mind, seemingly as long as we're in the range predicted by the modelling it's all OK now.

As for individuals - I completely agree. Since the beginning of so-called Lockdown VI I have been commenting on how many people in my LGA are taking not a blind bit of notice of the most basic of all preventive measures - wearing a mask properly (if at all). Many people in Bayside seem to breathe through their chin. I presume that this anatomical deformity is accompanied by related deformity in their brain.

The other issue is that NSW has (surprise, surprise) disproportionately concentrated vaccination efforts on Sydney without locking down Sydney, and so Covid spread to the regions. NSW is opening to a Sydney-centric timetable, many NSW regions have vulnerable populations and low vaccination rates as, like we experienced, all their initial vaccine stocks were diverted to Sydney. It may pay off, I hope that it does, but it's a high risk strategy. Mot of those communities are out of sight and out of Government mind at the best of times

[jw1739]

@belaguttman It seems to me as a layman that Victoria's present policy is also very high risk. We seem to now be locked in to a timetable no matter what. Andrews does not come across to me as someone who really knows what he is doing.

[belaguttman]

53 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

@belaguttman It seems to me as a layman that Victoria's present policy is also very high risk. We seem to now be locked in to a timetable no matter what. Andrews does not come across to me as someone who really knows what he is doing.

Andrews doesn't know what he's doing, but luckily he's listening to Brett Sutton and his team that do know😀. Contrast that with NSW.

The response is all around risk management, there's no risk avoidance option. NSW are going more down the UK/Israel route, they've had higher case numbers (and Israel was more vaccinated than NSW) because they minimised mask use. It's very clear that vaccination + masking is very very effective, that's the more cautious route we are taking. If that turns out to be unnecessary in time then that's a very good outcome! If I hear one more time how NSW is 'leading the nation' out of Covid I will puke, we got into this problem because of their lax quarantine procedures, their failure to lock down Sydney has spread Covid up and down the east coast and throughout regional NSW, the necessary concentration of vaccination efforts in Sydney has delayed vaccination efforts elsewhere (especially regional NSW), compounded by the lack of Federal Government leadership and competancy.

Andrews has actually been consistent in saying that we would open when we reached vaccination targets, that's what's happening. It was always gong to happen in a rush, 3 months ago there was minimal Pfizer available here, it was all going to Sydney, so many Victorians got their first AZ shot (more that all the other States combined), they are now all coming due for their second dose and so will complete their vaccinations in the next few weeks. NSW citizens that received Pfizer at the same time were double dosed months ago

[kingofhearts]

23 hours ago, belaguttman said:

Andrews doesn't know what he's doing, but luckily he's listening to Brett Sutton and his team that do know😀. Contrast that with NSW.

I'm sorry Bela, but I can't agree with any of this.The CHO's medical integrity has been comprised the minute he was announced as part of of the Labour government. We forget that not too long ago the fast food companies were paying off doctors to downplay the health risk of sugar and instead highlight the risks of fat.This was done in order to downplay the effects of sugar on heart disease.Their human beings just like us, just as corruptible an error ridden as the common man, and it's clear he takes orders from the top, not the other way around.

The CHO and everyone involved are just another government department.They're not independent medical personnel who are putting the best interests of the community first.Rather, just like every other government department, they're being told what to do, and then their job is to scrounge all the evidence in the world to support the viewpoint.If an independent medical associating was looking at how best to tackle the pandemic, would've they not come to many different ways in tackling the spread?Why have we not looked at other countries and the way they have handled it? It's not simply a one size fits all approach when dealing with this spread, but the government are so deep in their "lockdown mode" policies that they are not willing to change it for anything- even if it means crushing people financially, mentally and emotionally. Would've these recent lockdown restrictions even been lifted if NSW hadn't lifted theres first? Serious question.

What have the CHO done well? How can you say they're doing a good job when we have the 2nd highest cases of anywhere in the nation, the highest death rate in the nation and have been locked down the longest?Have they done anything well?.The Victorian government are  are the biggest "poor me" government, never take any responsibility for their actions, but always happy to blame everyone else when something go wrong.If you want all the responsibility of dealing with the pandemic, then get ready to take all the criticism that comes with it too.

The CHO won't even release the health advice behind doing such noble things such as shutting playgrounds off to kids, snap 78.... sorry 7 day lockdowns as well as a bunch of other ticky tacky bullshit rules that are there to "protect us".And if you don't follow those rules, or want to even disagree peacefully with them, you'll be shot with rubber bullets, handcuffed ,thrown to the ground, and arrested. Not to even mention the $5000 fine that will accompany you, simply for willing to have a different point of view from the government.

TLDR: Everything that has been done/enforced during this pandemic has been politically motivated- Not based on any health advice whatsoever

Edited October 19, 2021 by kingofhearts

[belaguttman]

9 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

I'm sorry Bela, but I can't agree with any of this.The CHO's medical integrity has been comprised the minute he was announced as part of of the Labour government. We forget that not too long ago the fast food companies were paying off doctors to downplay the health risk of sugar and instead highlight the risks of fat.This was done in order to downplay the effects of sugar on heart disease.Their human beings just like us, just as corruptible an error ridden as the common man, and it's clear he takes orders from the top, not the other way around.

The CHO is a public servant, he isn't paid by industry and isn't a politician

10 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

The CHO and everyone involved are just another government department.They're not independent medical personnel who are putting the best interests of the community first.Rather, just like every other government department, they're being told what to do, and then their job is to scrounge all the evidence in the world to support the viewpoint.If an independent medical associating was looking at how best to tackle the pandemic, would've they not come to many different ways in tackling the spread?Why have we not looked at other countries and the way they have handled it? It's not simply a one size fits all approach when dealing with this spread, but the government are so deep in their "lockdown mode" policies that they are not willing to change it for anything- even if it means crushing people financially, mentally and emotionally. Would've these recent lockdown restrictions even been lifted if NSW hadn't lifted theres first? Serious question.

The CHO has sought independent medical advice, his Department has consulted widely. There's more than one single way to manage the situation, Brett Sutton is taking a conservative approach, but far less conservative that every State apart from NSW (where the CMO has been ignored at times). One advantage we've had here is we've been able to see and learn from approaches taken in other countries, Taiwan and Korea and Singapore have had helpful approaches in minimising transmission and morbidity/mortality, UK, Sweden, US, Brazil have shown us what doesn't work. We've learned from Singapore and Israel that high vaccination rates alone aren't sufficient when opening up, masks are also necessary. These learnings have been incoprporated into our plan. We are still taking a higher risk strategy opening before 16-40 year olds have had a chance to complete their vaccinations, and kids remain transmission pathways into our homes where none of us are masked and will be exposed to Covid.

Remember, if NSW had required their high-risk quarantine workers to be vaccinated, they wouldn't have had their outbreak. If Gladys had locked down Sydney quickly it would have been localised and small, instead she over-rode her CHO and allowed it to spread up and down the east coast, that's why we had a lockdown here.

She diverted vaccine from rural NSW and The Federal Government diverted vaccine meant for other States to vaccinate Sydney, but has opened up NSW with areas of rural NSW having supply limited low vaccination rates and poor medical backup, because it suits Sydney. It's a very high risk strategy, I hope that it pays off but it risks all our successes over the last 18 months.

Personally, I'd be waiting to end lockdown until 2 weeks after we reach 80%, it takes 2 weeks for those second vaccinations to confer immunity, all those people are still vulnerable during that time.

23 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

The CHO won't even release the health advice behind doing such noble things such as shutting playgrounds off to kids, snap 78.... sorry 7 day lockdowns as well as a bunch of other ticky tacky bullshit rules that are there to "protect us".And if you don't follow those rules, or want to even disagree peacefully with them, you'll be shot with rubber bullets, handcuffed ,thrown to the ground, and arrested. Not to even mention the $5000 fine that will accompany you, simply for willing to have a different point of view from the government.

The advice was released, there was high transmissions in playgrounds, both kids to kids and parents. Nobody has been penalised for having a different view, I have a different view on many aspects of pandemic management, I haven't been fined. People have been fined for exposing themselves and others to a high risk of Covid transmission as had been born out with the high number of anti-vac protesters in hospital with Covid infections.

24 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

What have the CHO done well? How can you say they're doing a good job when we have the 2nd highest cases of anywhere in the nation, the highest death rate in the nation and have been locked down the longest?Have they done anything well?.The Victorian government are  are the biggest "poor me" government, never take any responsibility for their actions, but always happy to blame everyone else when something go wrong.If you want all the responsibility of dealing with the pandemic, then get ready to take all the criticism that comes with it too.

This virus evolved to transmit in caves, indoor environments are optimal transmission conditions, as are low temperatures and low humidity. Vivtorians spend more winter time indoors that NSW and Queenslanders, and we have higher density living than SA, Qld or WA and Tas, that makes us most likely to favour virus spread. Summer made it far easier for us to control transmission, it's why we are putting so much emphasis on outdoor dining and trading.

We are behind in vaccinations because we've had less supply of mRNA vaccines until the last 2 weeks and the dosage interval for AZ vaccines is longer. Vaccine rollout has been poorly managed by Federal and State Governments. The Federal Government have been negligently incompetent, State Government has suffered from a centralised approach and struggled to engage local communities. I've posted here a lot about successive ALP and Liberal State Government failures in health over the past 30 years, every problem they've been warned about has occurred, both parties have chosen to listen to managers and private consultants rather than experts

[Harrison]

Well said @belaguttman

I’ve appreciated and enjoyed reading your posts over the last few months. Always well-researched and argued. 

[belaguttman]

As always, the Covid morbidity and mortality will be disproportionately fall on the disadvantaged:

elderly

poor

unemployed, insecurely employed who don't have access to good sick leave

those low paid essential workers in transport and logistics chains, food supply industries.

If we guaranteed a living wage to all citizens, at least for the duration of the pandemic it would allow the sort of workforce flexibility that would remove many factors that continue the chains of transmission and reduce the main cause of financial stress in the community

[jw1739]

IMO the comments above from @kingofhearts are valid. At least they are from the moment that the so-called "National Plan" was approved by the "National Cabinet." Whether there was any public health advice behind the "national plan" I don't know, , but as always the  Fed government is fighting tooth and nail to prevent the release of the records - if there are any - and therefore I doubt the existence of such input. Ever since then all decisions have been political, driven by political point-scoring and by lobby groups. Suddenly we lurched from just a handful of infections per day and three levels on contact tracing into a lemming-like determination to follow the "plan" with its implications that as long as infections, hospitalisations and deaths didn't go outside the predictions of "modelling" everything was OK. The deaths were just those of people who were deemed expendable.

My view is reinforced today by the news that Events Victoria (or whatever they are called) have had bugger-all consultation with the Department of Health over "small events" but suddenly we must have the MCG full on Boxing Day. Such is the power of the "establishment lobby" here in Melbourne.

Shame on all the people who have conspired to let this happen.

[jw1739]

Don't know what others think, but these proposed new laws in Victoria are outrageous. They effectively make the Premier a dictator.

[haz]

10 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Don't know what others think, but these proposed new laws in Victoria are outrageous. They effectively make the Premier a dictator.

Isn't it no different to other states? 

[jw1739]

4 hours ago, haz said:

Isn't it no different to other states? 

Doesn't make it right. Spend the rest of your life checking into every bloody doorway you enter? Lock you inside your home for three months at a time? Not allowed out of the suburb in which you live?

[NewConvert]

6 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Don't know what others think, but these proposed new laws in Victoria are outrageous. They effectively make the Premier a dictator.

I have been thinking about this prior to the announcement as I am confused as to how the different jurisdictions have their laws. Unfortunately I have not come across any decent comparison and whether they are effective.

Personally, I would have waited for the pandemic to have stabilised and called a massive royal commission at the federal level and that would have been one of the topics. This is one of those things where slow oversight vs instantanous decision making comes to the fore.

Don't bother reading the Defense Act then if this scares you.

[jw1739]

My major concern is that "consultation with experts" has produced a set of proposed laws that can be triggered for the duration of 3 months at a time without any scrutiny by parliament before they come into effect. A "pandemic" will be proclaimed by the Premier whenever he/she feels like it. I object very much to mass surveillance by the use of QR codes - no government has a need to know each and every time I enter various premises. Nor should I have to carry my bloody smartphone with me wherever I go. This is no better than the mass surveillance in China where conformers can access privileges denied to others. As for claiming that the information gathered will not be shared, whether legally or not - utter rubbish. Show me a database that hasn't been hacked or sold, or both.

[HeartFc]

This thread is proudly brought to you by Pfizer. 

[NewConvert]

12 hours ago, jw1739 said:

My major concern is that "consultation with experts" has produced a set of proposed laws that can be triggered for the duration of 3 months at a time without any scrutiny by parliament before they come into effect. A "pandemic" will be proclaimed by the Premier whenever he/she feels like it. I object very much to mass surveillance by the use of QR codes - no government has a need to know each and every time I enter various premises. Nor should I have to carry my bloody smartphone with me wherever I go. This is no better than the mass surveillance in China where conformers can access privileges denied to others. As for claiming that the information gathered will not be shared, whether legally or not - utter rubbish. Show me a database that hasn't been hacked or sold, or both.

You and I are old. The latest gens have their smartphones surgically implanted.

[Shahanga]

21 hours ago, haz said:

Isn't it no different to other states? 

Seems to be more draconian. Love the bit about “designated people”.
Who first came up with this concept? Following in the footsteps of his mentors.

[jw1739]

The way the "numbers" are going in Victoria - or not going - suggests to me it won't be long before Andrews will exercise his new powers.

22 months down the track we're in a worse situation than when we started.

[marn11]

This all seems dodgy as hell.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-bar-slams-appalling-new-pandemic-laws-20211027-p593n8.html

[jw1739]

Makes China look like a liberal democracy. Outrageous.

Yes, the CHO is an unelected official, but he is a medical professional. The Minister for Health does not necessarily have any knowledge of public health, and is a professional politician. I know which I prefer to make decisions on matters of health.

[belaguttman]

3 hours ago, jw1739 said:

The way the "numbers" are going in Victoria - or not going - suggests to me it won't be long before Andrews will exercise his new powers.

22 months down the track we're in a worse situation than when we started.

It's important to interpret the numbers. There's a rapidly growing outbreak in Albury-Wodonga but 60% of cases are under 16 years old. Almost all of these will have a mild illness and won't trigger conditions that require lockdown. I agree that the proposed law is overreach, but it's unlikely to pass the upper house. I think that the decision should remain with the CHO, but that Parliament should be required to sit throughout any state of emergency so that there can be a public political accountability. That risks it turning into the usual political shit fight, but its better than Government by executive rule.

Once we reach 90% of over 16s double vaccinated, the virus will struggle to transmit in any group other than school aged kids. Teachers should be a priority for early third doses but luckily the summer break is arriving and 5-12 year olds should be approved for vaccination by Xmas or soon after, so next year will look quite different

[NewConvert]

I have no idea why the law is being rushed into place now. Personally, I would have preferred a royal commission over all the jurisdictions to determine the appropriateness of the current legal frameworks. Stupid idea.

[belaguttman]

2 hours ago, NewConvert said:

I have no idea why the law is being rushed into place now. Personally, I would have preferred a royal commission over all the jurisdictions to determine the appropriateness of the current legal frameworks. Stupid idea.

A RC with a wider scope of reference, to look at the whole pandemic response. it'll never happen though

[NewConvert]

7 hours ago, belaguttman said:

A RC with a wider scope of reference, to look at the whole pandemic response. it'll never happen though

Oh, absolutely. For me the RC would have three components: one where we look at peoples behaviour (toilet roll fights, lack of higyene, etc); secondly infrastructure and corresponding standards (should hotels be built with pandemic ventilation systems, quarantine levels and standards, isolation of regions/states,etc); third government responses and legislation (who has the power to call a pandemic, oversight, single points of failure, medical procurement, etc.). And you are right, it will never happen because we don't have MPs with integrity.

[jw1739]

Doesn't it come down to the Constitution itself? As it stands it's very hard to have a "national" response to anything. I don't think too many of our leaders understood their powers at the start of the pandemic.