The Coronavirus Thread (We nearly didn't see City in the 2021 Grand Final)

[belaguttman]

2 hours ago, Shahanga said:

I see where you’re coming from in regards to the health system bela, my problem is that Andrews has had almost 2 years to prepare for this, promised to do so (4000 extra icu beds) then done nothing. Now his “solution” is to lock me, you and everyone else up some more. Having already set a world record for lockdowns.

So our freedom is dependent on his competence. In short we’re fucked.

A nursing degree takes far longer than 2 years, add additional years of experience for ICU or ED training and it would really take a decade to prepare, same for paramedics. It would take even longer for specialist medical staff. Planning and building pa hospital is a 15-20 year exercise. Andrews, (an ex-health Minister), and every Liberal and ALP Government since Kennett has deliberately run the health system like a factory, chasing 'efficiency' instead of care. This is the end result, the expected end result, as ID physicians and epidemiologists have been warning of the inevitability of a global pandemic for 20 years.

Buying 4000 beds and ventilators and another 1000 ambulances is easy, that's been done, the old Peter Mac building in East Melbourne has been recommissioned as a Covid hospital for instance, but who is going to operate them? Nurses and paramedics have been leaving the health system at increasing rates over the last 20 years with stress and burnout, but have just been regarded as replaceable commodities, like factory fodder. Successive Governments have been told the problem, they have been in thrall to neo-liberal economic dogma and much prefer to listen to MBAs and B. Ec advisors than anyone with health training.

We taxpayers and voters voted repeatedly for this situation.

Edited October 2, 2021 by belaguttman

[belaguttman]

On 29/09/2021 at 5:22 PM, malloy said:

I think it is a little harsh to blame all people who have not been vaccinated as yet. There are many who were only eligible to be vaccinated from 1 September (and only able to book an appointment a few days prior to that). Once appointments were able to be made available slots were snapped up pretty quickly and the govt booking site kept crashing. There would definitely be many people who have not had the first vaccination that are booked in for the earliest appointment they could get.

The Federal Government immunisation strategy has used local GPs. Supplies have been erratic, vaccine appointments have been booked and cancelled when promised supplies never arrived. Outer north and west Melbourne have a half to a quarter of the number of GPs compared to the rest of Melbourne, exacerbating the problem. State hubs haven't engaged with local communities well, multi-lingual support has been minimal, multi-lingual vaccine education remains poor, and as you say, the outer north and west has had the lowest number of eligible citizens. If you look at the data, most of those infected are below 30, and most have been at school or work in essential service industries where they have had Covid exposure. The vaccine rollout should have targeted essential workers early, but there just wasn't the supply to do this.

[GreenSeater]

11 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Apparently I can now go 15km for any one of 5 reasons - or is it 6? But we're about to start international travel again?

 

This is the part that is absolutely killing me. I can’t go and visit my parents a couple of suburbs away or go to the pub, but it’ll be okay for anyone who wants to to come visit from Europe in a month’s time? What a load of utter shit.

 

The vaccine mandate for authorised workers is terrible as well. Get vaccinated or you can’t feed your kids. I am pro-vaccine, I’m fully vaccinated and have been for months, pretty much the second I was eligible, but I absolutely understand why people are hesitant. Telling people they have to do something is just going to drive them into their positions much more deeply. The stick only works for so long, and after the longest lockdown on the planet, you’re going to need to bring out the carrot eventually.

[belaguttman]

30 minutes ago, GreenSeater said:

This is the part that is absolutely killing me. I can’t go and visit my parents a couple of suburbs away or go to the pub, but it’ll be okay for anyone who wants to to come visit from Europe in a month’s time? What a load of utter shit.

 

The vaccine mandate for authorised workers is terrible as well. Get vaccinated or you can’t feed your kids. I am pro-vaccine, I’m fully vaccinated and have been for months, pretty much the second I was eligible, but I absolutely understand why people are hesitant. Telling people they have to do something is just going to drive them into their positions much more deeply. The stick only works for so long, and after the longest lockdown on the planet, you’re going to need to bring out the carrot eventually.

The more people that are vaccinated, the safer it becomes to lift restrictions and get back to our lives. We will need to continue indoor masks for the next year though

[GreenSeater]

29 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

The more people that are vaccinated, the safer it becomes to lift restrictions and get back to our lives. We will need to continue indoor masks for the next year though

Can you blame people for struggling to see that being realistic though? The goalposts have shifted time and time again throughout the past 18 months, and even then once we meet the national plan’s goal for re-opening, we don’t go back to normal. We aim to hit the targets and maybe we’ll hopefully potentially get the privilege of being allowed 30 people over on Christmas Day.

Believe me, I understand the importance of vaccines, I wish everyone would just go and get vaccinated, but I also know that isn’t realistic, and when you spend months telling people that the vaccine is safe, then it isn’t, then it is but only for people over 60, and then over 50, and then suddenly everyone again, you’re going to get people who are scared, especially when you start forcing people to take it.

[NewConvert]

My two bobs worth:

1. I know about the health shortage. Last year we discovered that I have a the commencement of liver problem but because it has been detected so early the treatment options are quite wide open. So first booking for a specialised scan was April and has been repeatedly been postponed because of covid. Of course as time progresses my options are decreasing until it will become an emergency, something that we are all trying to avoid. Hence @belaguttman point about health care.

2. Goal posts will always shift during natural disasters - this is where we are the prey. The anxiety has been compounded because the PR messaging has been appalling and that is due to the way that politics has devolved. Since none of the people in parliament have ever experienced long term natural disaster they don't know how to respond. Secondly they are all political animals first so everything is being seen through that lens.

[belaguttman]

12 hours ago, GreenSeater said:

Can you blame people for struggling to see that being realistic though? The goalposts have shifted time and time again throughout the past 18 months, and even then once we meet the national plan’s goal for re-opening, we don’t go back to normal. We aim to hit the targets and maybe we’ll hopefully potentially get the privilege of being allowed 30 people over on Christmas Day.

Believe me, I understand the importance of vaccines, I wish everyone would just go and get vaccinated, but I also know that isn’t realistic, and when you spend months telling people that the vaccine is safe, then it isn’t, then it is but only for people over 60, and then over 50, and then suddenly everyone again, you’re going to get people who are scared, especially when you start forcing people to take it.

The goalpost was always aggressive active suppression, elimination was never possible. We may have temporarily had zero community transmission but it was always going to be temporary. The goal was to vaccinate everyone that can be vaccinated and progressively relax restrictions to preserve the ability of the health system to treat serious affected people.

Risk = likelihood x consequences.

As we increase the percentage of the community that is vaccinated and open up, we increase the likelihood of coming across Covid but greatly reduce the consequences, reducing the risk.

[belaguttman]

12 hours ago, GreenSeater said:

 

Believe me, I understand the importance of vaccines, I wish everyone would just go and get vaccinated, but I also know that isn’t realistic, and when you spend months telling people that the vaccine is safe, then it isn’t, then it is but only for people over 60, and then over 50, and then suddenly everyone again, you’re going to get people who are scared, especially when you start forcing people to take it.

ATAGI never advised against AZ for under 50s, they said that the risk/benefit equation was different and should be discussed with each patient so that there was informed consent. The message was 'reinterpreted' by politicians. Doctors will never say yes or no, it's always yes, but...so you decide, or no, but...so you decide.

[jw1739]

4 hours ago, NewConvert said:

My two bobs worth:

1. I know about the health shortage. Last year we discovered that I have a the commencement of liver problem but because it has been detected so early the treatment options are quite wide open. So first booking for a specialised scan was April and has been repeatedly been postponed because of covid. Of course as time progresses my options are decreasing until it will become an emergency, something that we are all trying to avoid. Hence @belaguttman point about health care.

2. Goal posts will always shift during natural disasters - this is where we are the prey. The anxiety has been compounded because the PR messaging has been appalling and that is due to the way that politics has devolved. Since none of the people in parliament have ever experienced long term natural disaster they don't know how to respond. Secondly they are all political animals first so everything is being seen through that lens.

This should never have happened to you. I have the same issue, with an ear specialist and my dentist, but fortunately in both cases it's not a new diagnosis but on-going maintenance, and in both cases we have known each other so long that there is a gentle personal friendship between us, and I can get an emergency consult if I really need one. But in your case this is not good enough.

By now they should be prepared to see fully-vaccinated patients, even if they require a negative COVID test 48 hours before the appointment and isolation between the test and the appointment.

Your example is not really a result of an overload on the health services sector. Rather it's an example of people not trying hard enough to find a way round a particular situation, and to deny you an essential scan at this point in time is a fail.

[belaguttman]

The problem is that elective surgery will get a temporary halt soon. Already, hospitals are seeing levels of pathology that many haven't seen in their careers, just from last year's lockdown.

Last year, when I had my heart valve replacement I spent under 12 hours in ICU post-op. The average Covid patient is in ICU for 3 weeks, that's 21 valve surgery's delayed.

[NewConvert]

2 hours ago, belaguttman said:

The problem is that elective surgery will get a temporary halt soon. Already, hospitals are seeing levels of pathology that many haven't seen in their careers, just from last year's lockdown.

Last year, when I had my heart valve replacement I spent under 12 hours in ICU post-op. The average Covid patient is in ICU for 3 weeks, that's 21 valve surgery's delayed.

That is a scary picture.

[kingofhearts]

On 01/10/2021 at 9:35 PM, Shahanga said:

I know he has a massive media unit but surely people are starting to see through his bullshit and incompetence now?

You'd think so but some people are so blinded by their support for their political party that all critical thinking goes out the window.People will #IstandwithDan until the day they die unfortunately, simply because he is on the "team" they support.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, and should be even a bigger blight on Dan Andrews then anything he has done during this pandemic, is his use of the police.Whether people agree with the protests or not, utilising the police as some private "gestapo" to go around and shoot rubber bullets at unarmed citizens , who's only crime is protesting against unfair laws and arrest people for the silliest shit, just reeks of dare I say it.... a dictatorship.

Could we not be using police resources more effectively? On the radio they were saying that police officers are purposely taking days off when protests are on so they don't have to deal with that shit.So now we are sending police officers who have only been in the job for a number of weeks, into highly volatile situations.No wonder we're constantly seeing clips of police officers abusing their powers, these kids haven't had enough experience in dealing with situations such as these!

[belaguttman]

He's been using Police because there's been no public health infrastructure in the State since the 1990s. The Kensington tower lockdown last year should have been a public health response, but there was nobody to do it apart from the Police. Every Government from Kennett to Andrews is responsible for that  situation.

[NewConvert]

5 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

You'd think so but some people are so blinded by their support for their political party that all critical thinking goes out the window.People will #IstandwithDan until the day they die unfortunately, simply because he is on the "team" they support.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, and should be even a bigger blight on Dan Andrews then anything he has done during this pandemic, is his use of the police.Whether people agree with the protests or not, utilising the police as some private "gestapo" to go around and shoot rubber bullets at unarmed citizens , who's only crime is protesting against unfair laws and arrest people for the silliest shit, just reeks of dare I say it.... a dictatorship.

Could we not be using police resources more effectively? On the radio they were saying that police officers are purposely taking days off when protests are on so they don't have to deal with that shit.So now we are sending police officers who have only been in the job for a number of weeks, into highly volatile situations.No wonder we're constantly seeing clips of police officers abusing their powers, these kids haven't had enough experience in dealing with situations such as these!

The police has always been used for protest handling - legal ones and illegal ones. About 10 years ago I was in the city and there was a protest against abortion simultaneously with a protest to save The Metro and hilariously with Comic-Con event. So there were people in CosPlay gear, and the protesters mingling and getting confused and the police trying to keep things flowing. It was all peaceful but me and the tradies were pissing ourselves laughing.

Crowd control in public areas has always been part and parcel of police duties. And I was there when the BLF (most likely before your time) were fighting the cops during their protests.

[FFC1996]

Oh yeah, that’s right, apparently from what I read, when I behave like a selfish prick and break the rules or like a scumbag and piss on the shrine, it’s not my fault as an individual who made that decision, I can just blame state govt.

[jw1739]

Whatever has happened and why it has happened and who is accountable and so on, what we're seeing in Victoria after almost continuous rules and restrictions for 18 months is that we have lost control of the Delta mutation. People are openly flouting the gathering rules, and most people in Bayside where I live seem to breathe through their chins, children are not home schooling but out on the streets, various factories and warehouse are open and transport seems to be as usual. There is no attempt to encourage or enforce compliance - it is no use calling your local police station because they are not empowered to act on COVID-19 rule breaches. When you queue at the check-out in Coles the person behind you doesn't know what 1.5 metres actually means. A medical specialist won't see you but the local podiatrist is trading as usual as is the local ice-cream parlour. Vaccination is so important that the GP clinic doing it opens only 5 days per week.

 

[belaguttman]

1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

Whatever has happened and why it has happened and who is accountable and so on, what we're seeing in Victoria after almost continuous rules and restrictions for 18 months is that we have lost control of the Delta mutation. People are openly flouting the gathering rules, and most people in Bayside where I live seem to breathe through their chins, children are not home schooling but out on the streets, various factories and warehouse are open and transport seems to be as usual. There is no attempt to encourage or enforce compliance - it is no use calling your local police station because they are not empowered to act on COVID-19 rule breaches. When you queue at the check-out in Coles the person behind you doesn't know what 1.5 metres actually means. A medical specialist won't see you but the local podiatrist is trading as usual as is the local ice-cream parlour. Vaccination is so important that the GP clinic doing it opens only 5 days per week.

 

We haven't lost control of it, the R off is about 1.7, if it was spreading in an uncontrolled way it would be around 6 and we would have had 10,000 new cases today. That's what exponential spread does. We are trying to keep it as low as possible until we get the vaccination rates up. When we relax restrictions then we will get around 30,000 cases a day nationally. That's all in the Doherty modelling. 

Although the caseload will be far higher, the higher vaccination rate will protect the majority from serious illness, but expect a hundred or so deaths a day for months

[jw1739]

16 hours ago, belaguttman said:

We haven't lost control of it, the R off is about 1.7, if it was spreading in an uncontrolled way it would be around 6 and we would have had 10,000 new cases today. That's what exponential spread does. We are trying to keep it as low as possible until we get the vaccination rates up. When we relax restrictions then we will get around 30,000 cases a day nationally. That's all in the Doherty modelling. 

Although the caseload will be far higher, the higher vaccination rate will protect the majority from serious illness, but expect a hundred or so deaths a day for months

That's the big picture. The detail, such as now it's in the Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne cancer ward because the only entry requirement was to fill in a questionnaire, tells me it's out of control. Likewise when I see so many people not observing the basic mask requirement.

[belaguttman]

21 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

That's the big picture. The detail, such as now it's in the Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne cancer ward because the only entry requirement was to fill in a questionnaire, tells me it's out of control. Likewise when I see so many people not observing the basic mask requirement.

That's why the R off is 1.7 instead of <1. If it hadn't been for the week of pointless protests it would have been <1 this week with numbers peaking around 1000 and then starting to fall, but it isn't 6

[Shahanga]

2 hours ago, belaguttman said:

That's why the R off is 1.7 instead of <1. If it hadn't been for the week of pointless protests it would have been <1 this week with numbers peaking around 1000 and then starting to fall, but it isn't 6

An outdoor protest the cause?

Zero chance.

[belaguttman]

13 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

An outdoor protest the cause?

Zero chance.

Generally, outdoors is far safer but it depends on the conditions, remember the European Covid outbreak started after the Atalanta-Sevila Champions League match: outdoors, no masks of course, and lots of chanting/singing/ movement. Protests where people have been physically distanced and masked have not been transmission events, very few of these protesters were masked that I could see from limited TV reports. It may have happened but I haven't heard of any Police (who were all masked) at those protests becoming infected

Edited October 6, 2021 by belaguttman

[jw1739]

The reason I say it's out of control is that people are not conforming to the very basics of control measures. Because it will not be properly controlled until they do. Some controls do not constitute "control."

[GreenSeater]

2 hours ago, belaguttman said:

Generally, outdoors is far safer but it depends on the conditions, remember the European Covid outbreak started after the Atalanta-Sevila Champions League match: outdoors, no masks of course, and lots of chanting/singing/ movement. Protests where people have been physically distanced and masked have not been transmission events, very few of these protesters were masked that I could see from limited TV reports. It may have happened but I haven't heard of any Police (who were all masked) at those protests becoming infected

Not sure if it’s due to the protests, but the antivaxxers are definitely not helping. An antivax bloke who I work with was told he was a tier 1 close contact earlier this week and he’s refusing to get tested or isolate. So he could be positive just walking around in the community. Really bloody frustrating.

[jw1739]

45 minutes ago, GreenSeater said:

Not sure if it’s due to the protests, but the antivaxxers are definitely not helping. An antivax bloke who I work with was told he was a tier 1 close contact earlier this week and he’s refusing to get tested or isolate. So he could be positive just walking around in the community. Really bloody frustrating.

I agree. Whilst it may be true that non-vaccinated people have (it looks like) about 20 times the risk of becoming seriously ill, the infections that they cause are prolonging the restrictions imposed on all of us, increasing the total number of infections and overloading the health services. And of course they demand the same services as the rest of us, or indeed more so.

They are antisocial, not just antivax.

[belaguttman]

3 hours ago, jw1739 said:

The reason I say it's out of control is that people are not conforming to the very basics of control measures. Because it will not be properly controlled until they do. Some controls do not constitute "control."

Yes, but even with that we were heading for a R nought below 1. Now that has been set back by a week or so, if at all

[johnno cpfc]

I am not at all surprised with the virus going bananas,some time ago (2months) friends of mine wanted to have week in Quueensland so theys set about getting all the necessary permits etc . On arrival at the airport they were asked if they had these permits and officials were shown them , all good they then flew to Qland and on arrival were asked if they had the permits but were not asked to produce them. On returning to Vic the same thing applied but this time nobody asked them for their permits  so is it any wonder that the whole thing is a complete shambles!

[belaguttman]

Our effective reproduction number is 1.37, not too bad (it will be 6 with no restrictions or vaccinations). The daily case count is high because the base infective number is high, but at this rate we are likely to peak in a week or so. The R eff in Hume, formerly the epicentre of the outbreak is now <1, the big worry is the outer south eastern suburbs

Edited October 8, 2021 by belaguttman

[Jovan]

20 hours ago, belaguttman said:

Our effective reproduction number is 1.37, not too bad (it will be 6 with no restrictions or vaccinations). The daily case count is high because the base infective number is high, but at this rate we are likely to peak in a week or so. The R eff in Hume, formerly the epicentre of the outbreak is now <1, the big worry is the outer south eastern suburbs

600 odd in hospital, if these exceeds 1000 we are in big trouble. 

[jw1739]

3 hours ago, Jovan said:

600 odd in hospital, if these exceeds 1000 we are in big trouble. 

I know @belaguttman will give us some reassuring words, but I don't understand what we are doing in Victoria now. Infections spreading and rising in number, but we're taking the brakes off. Well, sort of, because we're still theoretically in lockdown. We're fully vaccinated, but I'm not supposed to have anyone come to my home, nor can I go to someone else's, and I shouldn't go more than 15km. But soon international arrivals will be permitted. It does not make sense to me anymore. It seems as though it's the socially-responsible and the law-abiding that are the ones being punished.

Edited October 9, 2021 by jw1739

[belaguttman]

5 hours ago, jw1739 said:

I know @belaguttman will give us some reassuring words, but I don't understand what we are doing in Victoria now. Infections spreading and rising in number, but we're taking the brakes off. Well, sort of, because we're still theoretically in lockdown. We're fully vaccinated, but I'm not supposed to have anyone come to my home, nor can I go to someone else's, and I shouldn't go more than 15km. But soon international arrivals will be permitted. It does not make sense to me anymore. It seems as though it's the socially-responsible and the law-abiding that are the ones being punished.

Covid will spread quickly through the community when restrictions are lifted. The lines of transmission will be the unvaccinated adults and children under 12, although some of them may be offered a vaccination soon. If you look at the data, most people catch Covid at home, not out and about: we are unmasked at home, up until now it has been cold and we've spent our time inside (unlike northern States. Covid evolved to spread between bats in caves (the Batcave?) so rooms are their optimal transmission environment, hence the different restriction outside and inside, at home and outside the home.

Being fully vaccinated greatly reduces your chance of becoming infected, but if you do then there is a chance that you can be infectious and transmit the virus to unvaccinated adults or kids, the further you travel, the more difficult the contact tracing, hence the distance restrictions. Contact tracing is dome by health regions, if you travel out of your region you have two contact tracers investigating your trip, not one.

The Doherty modelling predicts 30,000 daily cases nationwide at the peak, we should get a peak here of about 2,200 at the time restrictions ease. Most people who get sick won't require hospitalisation, but enough will to compromise healthcare for everyone, and it should last until February next year.

8 hours ago, Jovan said:

600 odd in hospital, if these exceeds 1000 we are in big trouble. 

It'll exceed 1000

[belaguttman]

Effect of Vaccination on Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in England (Harris et al., NEJM, 8/19/21): Oxford/Pfizer reduces transmission by 43–62% (from 10.1% to 5.7–6.2%).

Oxford 52% (43–62%) from 10.1% to 5.7%
Pfizer 54% (47–62%) from 10.1% to 6.2%

This is consistent with two observations
(1) Oxford/Pfizer seems to reduce chances of infection (asymptomatic or symptomatic) by about 40–60%.
(2) Viral load in vax/unvax people is similar for the first 7–8 days (most/all of the infective period)

So….
(3) Vax and unvax people who’ve caught Covid are about equally likely to infect their household members. But vax people catch 40–60% fewer Covid infections - which protects their household members.

(4) If you are vaxxed and want to do more to protect household members than just 43–62%, use N95/N99/N100 masks and stay father away from people who talk/sing/shout/laugh loudly, so you catch fewer Covid infections.

Remember, the risk reduction compounds, if I have a 50% reduced risk of catching it from an infected person and you are vaccinated, your risk of catching it from the original infected person via me is 50% of 50% = 25%

Edited October 10, 2021 by belaguttman

[jw1739]

I think what pisses me off more than anything about what we are doing in this State is the government's preoccupation with "major events." We could not meet properly today the very elderly mother of my late wife to share a short birthday lunch with her. All three of us are fully vaccinated. We were not allowed into her room in the aged care home where she is, nor was she allowed to come to our home for a couple of hours. Instead we had to sit for just over an hour in the cold with no sunshine in the courtyard at the care home. Meanwhile 10,000 can go to the fucking Melbourne Cup.

To prohibit us from meeting today in the warmth of our home makes no logical sense whatsoever.

[belaguttman]

What we all want are the 'minor events' of our ordinary lives, somehow the Government believes in the symbolism of Major Events. Homes are the major place of transmission in this 4th wave, I don't like it, but it makes sense from a pandemic control perspective. I haven't seen my daughter since June, she's moved out of home and I've missed it, and, even when I can return to Melbourne, I can't visit her there. She's not due for her second AZ until November though, I'll stay away to help keep her safe, and those that she may pass the infection to.

[NewConvert]

8 hours ago, jw1739 said:

I think what pisses me off more than anything about what we are doing in this State is the government's preoccupation with "major events." We could not meet properly today the very elderly mother of my late wife to share a short birthday lunch with her. All three of us are fully vaccinated. We were not allowed into her room in the aged care home where she is, nor was she allowed to come to our home for a couple of hours. Instead we had to sit for just over an hour in the cold with no sunshine in the courtyard at the care home. Meanwhile 10,000 can go to the fucking Melbourne Cup.

To prohibit us from meeting today in the warmth of our home makes no logical sense whatsoever.

The old Roman adage "bread and circuses". Major events are the circuses.

[belaguttman]

The statewide R eff is 1.23 today. We aren't too far off our peak

The Hume R eff was >3 at one stage, currently 0.8, ie the caseload is shrinking and the City of Hume is beating delta with restrictions + vaccine. The rest of the State will follow. Sometimes it feels like all these restrictions are having no impact, it's just that there's a lag of several weeks before the new infections lead to hospitalisations, lead to death, and then a lag before the public health response has an impact.

Edited October 11, 2021 by belaguttman

[belaguttman]

R eff is 1.18 today, lowest number since the end of August, we may have reached our peak of new infections, at very least we are very close. Well done everyone

[jw1739]

I actually learn more about what's really happening from @belaguttman on this Forum than from anywhere else. Concise, understandable, and free of all the political point-scoring.

Thanks mate for keeping me sane throughout the frustration of it all.

[belaguttman]

The main thing is that any public health response will have a lag before we can assess the outcome. That's also important to understand the response out of lockdown, it'll be slow as Brett Sutton & team want to evaluate the response to changes before instituting new changes. NSW is taking a very risky path, let's hope that it'll pay off but their risky approach has already cost the rest of the country. 

It'll also be complex, as we don't just have one outbreak, we have many, all at different stages, all requiring a different response. It may seem like some areas are being treated differently from others, they will be, but this will be why.

[haz]

7 hours ago, jw1739 said:

I actually learn more about what's really happening from @belaguttman on this Forum than from anywhere else. Concise, understandable, and free of all the political point-scoring.

Thanks mate for keeping me sane throughout the frustration of it all.

Some great data I follow is from ChrisBillington

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021.html

[belaguttman]