The Coronavirus Thread (We nearly didn't see City in the 2021 Grand Final)

[jw1739]

20 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

Still no different plan, a year and a half in and we're still doing lockdowns.

By the end of the year we'll be in double digit lockdowns easily I reckon

Other than the bluntness of the present lockdowns - certainly here in Victoria - and I must say, surely by now we could become more targeted? - there is no alternative. Vaccinations don't start to make a difference until they get to 80% plus, but even at 80% one in five people are still an easy target for the virus. At 90% it's harder for the virus to find a new host - just a one-in-ten chance - and of course at 95% the chance is just one-in-twenty.

A major reason why we keep going back into lockdown is that people seem to be unable to restrict themselves to essential movements only. I'm staggered by some infected people who visit more locations in a day than I do in a whole year. And still there are people leaving the country and wanting to return. Do you know that over 650,000 Australians have entered Australia from overseas since the pandemic began?

Another major reason why we will have to endure this for longer than we should is the continual mixed messaging, especially about vaccines and vaccination. There are too many committees, too many spokespeople, too many messages - no wonder Joe and Jane Public are uncertain. And we need to restructure our health services. I found out that my GP Clinic - and I've been going there best part of 30 years - was doing vaccinations by trawling the internet and seeing it listed; not a word, not a call, not a text from the clinic. I found out about the Immunisation Register the same way. IMO the communication has been appalling.

[belaguttman]

6 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

Still no different plan, a year and a half in and we're still doing lockdowns.

By the end of the year we'll be in double digit lockdowns easily I reckon

There's a plan, it's very light on detail (no surprise), and it relies on international supply lines to deliver any vaccine other than AZ, but the plan is mass vaccination. If the R0 is truly >5 then we'll need a community vaccination rate of close to 95% as we currently have for other highly transmissible viruses. That won't stop the virus circulating through the community, but if we achieve that level of vaccine take-up we will minimise the morbidity and mortality that comes with widespread community transmission. 95% take-up will require vaccination of every person > 5 years old, we are currently waiting for the results of safety and efficacy trials in children before this is approved.

These vaccines will be the most highly researched vaccines in history and amongst the safest. It's certain though that we'll require yearly updates as the virus evolves, much like flu. The silver lining is that vaccine research has been turbocharged by the Covid response and many new medical advances will flow from this, as an example there are mRNA  malaria vaccine trials about to start that are likely to offer our first serious vaccine against what is the world's biggest killer. mRNA vaccines are likely to be useful technology for developing future cancer treatments and many other currently difficult treatment problems.

The unfortunate thing is that we had a Federal Government that doesn't seem to be able to think beyond the next press release and so are planning now for things that should have been planned for 12 months ago. It's not a race, apparently.

This article from The Age explains it quite well

Edited August 6, 2021 by belaguttman

[belaguttman]

5 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Another major reason why we will have to endure this for longer than we should is the continual mixed messaging, especially about vaccines and vaccination. There are too many committees, too many spokespeople, too many messages - no wonder Joe and Jane Public are uncertain. And we need to restructure our health services. I found out that my GP Clinic - and I've been going there best part of 30 years - was doing vaccinations by trawling the internet and seeing it listed; not a word, not a call, not a text from the clinic. I found out about the Immunisation Register the same way. IMO the communication has been appalling.

The messaging from ATAGI hasn't been mixed, their advice has been pretty consistent, the message from the Feds has been inconsistent and has been undermined by their own backbench and sections of the media.

Vaccination is always a risk/benefit process, as the risk changes therefore the advice based on where we sit on that curve will change. ATAGI's advice was that whilst there was no circulating Covid then there was a risk in waiting for more Pfizer stocks, that we may end up in the current situation, a largely unvaccinated population and a large community outbreak. The risk of mass AZ vaccination is small, more women die of blood clots each year on the Pill for instance, but mass AZ vaccinations were likely to means 7 or 8 vaccine related deaths across the country and perhaps 50 people who developed clotting problems but didn't die as treatment of this problem is well understood. They made a range of recommendations based on risk/benefit, the Government poorly explained it and so have created an unnecessary difficulty.

The problem we have today is that even if everyone had their first AZ vaccine today, they wouldn't be protected until about the same time as if they wait for Pfizer (3 month gap between AZs, 2 weeks between Pfizer). We should have been vaccinating like crazy during autumn, but it wasn't a race then as there was political capital from closed borders.

[kingofhearts]

2 hours ago, belaguttman said:

The unfortunate thing is that we had a Federal Government that doesn't seem to be able to think beyond the next press release and so are planning now for things that should have been planned for 12 months ago. It's not a race, apparently.

This article from The Age explains it quite well

Couldn't agree more on this point.

When we had covid under control somewhat nationwide we should've been pumping the vaccine out.Instead, we sat on our hands and did jack shit and whilst the rest of the world were behind us and suffereing, most countries are now returning back to some normalcy while we're still yo-yoing between lockdowns.How we weren't ordering and adminstrating these vaccines by the boatload is beyond me, our federal politicians are hopeless.

The "Plan" as you have stated in dealing with this virus is very vague.Dan Andrews stated yesterday that an 80% vaccinated rate would be what they're looking for in order to assure no more lockdowns, but I trust very little of what he says at all.He still has no plan outside of lockdowns, and as JW was saying, can't we just lockdown certain areas? A year and a half of studying this virus, and we have not evolved our thinking at all.We also continue to let people back from NSW into the community, why hasn't he made a ring of steel and stopped anyone and everyone coming from there?!?!?! The most highly infectious area in Australia and we just keep letting them in, great job Dan.

Does it get to a point where the cure is worse then disease?Record rates of suicide, depression and loss of buisness is a result of all these lockdowns.I am not adovocating at all that we let the virus run rampent and kill the vunerable however, there must be some type of middle ground between lockdowns and complete freedom that has not been explored or rather, the government is refusing to explore.

The aim of the game should be to order a shittone of vaccines and give everybody a 6-8 month period to get vaccinated.After that, if you have chosen to not get the vaccine that is your choice and you live with the consequences of not following medical advice.

7 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Another major reason why we will have to endure this for longer than we should is the continual mixed messaging, especially about vaccines and vaccination. There are too many committees, too many spokespeople, too many messages - no wonder Joe and Jane Public are uncertain. And we need to restructure our health services. I found out that my GP Clinic - and I've been going there best part of 30 years - was doing vaccinations by trawling the internet and seeing it listed; not a word, not a call, not a text from the clinic. I found out about the Immunisation Register the same way. IMO the communication has been appalling.

What I have learnt somewhat through this pandemic is that doctors and healthcare workers are just us corruptable as politicians.If it was all about the science, how can their be such mixed messaging about Astrazennca? The QLD health minister was saying one thing, and yet our government was saying another.Outside of my local GP, it's hard to take these health experts in government seriously when they can't even get their act together and be all on the same page? Take the lockdown decision away from government, and give it to indpendent medical associations to ensure the least corruption possible I reckon

Edited August 6, 2021 by kingofhearts

[belaguttman]

1 hour ago, kingofhearts said:

When we had covid under control somewhat nationwide we should've been pumping the vaccine out.Instead, we sat on our hands and did jack shit

Pfizer offered Australia early mass supply of the vaccine as they wanted to roll it out in a country with a good public health system. The Federal DoH sent along a junior official who haggled over the price and insisted Pfizer hand over their IP. Pfizer walked away and went to talk with Israel...

If Pfizer had been owned by one of their party donors they would have sent the Minister and offered well over top dollar

[NewConvert]

19 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Other than the bluntness of the present lockdowns - certainly here in Victoria - and I must say, surely by now we could become more targeted? - there is no alternative. Vaccinations don't start to make a difference until they get to 80% plus, but even at 80% one in five people are still an easy target for the virus. At 90% it's harder for the virus to find a new host - just a one-in-ten chance - and of course at 95% the chance is just one-in-twenty.

A major reason why we keep going back into lockdown is that people seem to be unable to restrict themselves to essential movements only. I'm staggered by some infected people who visit more locations in a day than I do in a whole year. And still there are people leaving the country and wanting to return. Do you know that over 650,000 Australians have entered Australia from overseas since the pandemic began?

Another major reason why we will have to endure this for longer than we should is the continual mixed messaging, especially about vaccines and vaccination. There are too many committees, too many spokespeople, too many messages - no wonder Joe and Jane Public are uncertain. And we need to restructure our health services. I found out that my GP Clinic - and I've been going there best part of 30 years - was doing vaccinations by trawling the internet and seeing it listed; not a word, not a call, not a text from the clinic. I found out about the Immunisation Register the same way. IMO the communication has been appalling.

Just logged back in and found this thread. Interestingly, since yesterday when O'Brien was calling for a more targeted approach, the 6 am news were saying that the virus had spread from the western suburbs out to Balwyn and Camberwell as covid had been found in the waste system. And of course last year we had lockdown in postcode 3012 which was not effective and the ombudsman criticise the government for, and this year we have NSW as another case that isn't working. So sadly we are stuck with blanket lockdowns until we get enough people vaccinated.

What rate should that be? as @belaguttmanhas written above to be truly consistent with the science we need about 95%. However, I am going for a much lower rate than that because society will decide that a certain number of deaths/hospitalisation we can deal with by adding some additional beds into hospitals, eventually we are going to get dedicated quarantine facilities, and the R value will decrease. How so? well as much as we complain about lockdowns and the 'ring of steel', there was still a lot of movement in the community. The price and availability of illicit drugs remain the same and given that Victoria imports illicit drugs from NSW, if the ring of steel had been effective the price and availability should have changed. Indeed what lockdowns do is reduce the amount of people movement not eliminate it. I don't know how much movement has been reduced by, but certainly not as much as people think.

[kingofhearts]

29 new cases today gents, strap yourselves in for a 2 week lockdown at the very least

[haz]

2 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

29 new cases today gents, strap yourselves in for a 2 week lockdown at the very least

Will be a lot more than two weeks considering all 29 were in the community. 

[jw1739]

18 minutes ago, haz said:

Will be a lot more than two weeks considering all 29 were in the community. 

Yet they are all linked to known cases. So not identified as either primary or secondary close contacts? Andrews lost his nerve and we came out of Lockdown 5 before we were down to zero, and now we are going to pay a heavy price. Everything we have gone though will be wasted.

I had to go to the shop for essentials yesterday. As I went through the local light industrial area there was no evidence of lockdown whatsoever. Office carparks full, warehouses open, deliveries taking place. Traffic lighter I will admit, but very few premises appeared to be closed.

 

[belaguttman]

As delta is more infectious, numbers will appear worse as whole family units will be infected - someone comes home with Covid and infects 3 or 4 other family members instead of 1 or 2. One feature of delta is that it appears to be more infectious in children so schools will be a major source of spread.

We'll get the numbers down, we'll have a better idea of how long it'll take by this time next week, however with delta spreading through the essential worker transmission pathways, it'll be quickly re-introduced from NSW that will have 500 new daily cases by next week if they continue their current level of lockdown-lite.

We really need to be vaccination along transmission pathways so that any outbreaks remain local. Vaccination won't prevent transmission but it'll reduce morbidity and mortality. Masks will reduce transmission so we'll need to continue both for at least the next 2 years

Edited August 7, 2021 by belaguttman

[NewConvert]

And the news are getting more troublesome - the genomic testing is not connecting this outbreak  to any other outbreak in Australia.

[jw1739]

27 minutes ago, NewConvert said:

And the news are getting more troublesome - the genomic testing is not connecting this outbreak  to any other outbreak in Australia.

Mutation can happen in any host. They all happen "somewhere." Maybe this is ours - "COVID-Australis?" But also remember that we have not stopped overseas passenger arrivals, only reduced them, and 14 days quarantine has already been shown to be barely sufficient. People quarantine in their city of arrival and then can travel interstate. Quarantine should be increased to 21 days as some countries have already done. We're so quick on the lockdown button but so slow to press the button elsewhere. And let's not hide the truth - 8 of todays infections are from one family. Political correctness is stifling disclosure of the full facts.

What I'd also like to know is where the bottleneck(s) are in the supply and distribution of vaccines.

Edited August 7, 2021 by jw1739

[NewConvert]

25 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Mutation can happen in any host. They all happen "somewhere." Maybe this is ours - "COVID-Australis?" But also remember that we have not stopped overseas passenger arrivals, only reduced them, and 14 days quarantine has already been shown to be barely sufficient. People quarantine in their city of arrival and then can travel interstate. Quarantine should be increased to 21 days as some countries have already done. We're so quick on the lockdown button but so slow to press the button elsewhere. And let's not hide the truth - 8 of todays infections are from one family. Political correctness is stifling disclosure of the full facts.

What I'd also like to know is where the bottleneck(s) are in the supply and distribution of vaccines.

I agree that the quarantine period should be increased to 21 days as used by various countries. And I would stop all international arrivals although the olympic team may be pissed if that happens. It could really be all one family - as in dad, mum and 6 kids. What is pissing me off is that it is highly unlikely that the 29 cases declared today have all been asymptomatic and that was why they were in the community.

[jw1739]

Oh, I wouldn't stop the return of the Olympians of course. But when you see that staggering statistic of 650,000 Australian citizens entering Australia since the pandemic started, it's no wonder that we have imported the virus. I also saw that 93,000 had been allowed to leave since the ban on doing so was brought in. Very few of these departures and arrivals would have been absolutely essential in these days of video conferencing etc. Including Morrison going to New Zealand. Many people have left for "that holiday" or "the lifestyle" or "the plum job" and IMO the nation's public health overrides their "need" to return. In fact it seems that the people who do really need to return are the ones DFAT (or whoever it is) can't seem to help.

[haz]

5 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Yet they are all linked to known cases. So not identified as either primary or secondary close contacts? Andrews lost his nerve and we came out of Lockdown 5 before we were down to zero, and now we are going to pay a heavy price. Everything we have gone though will be wasted.

I had to go to the shop for essentials yesterday. As I went through the local light industrial area there was no evidence of lockdown whatsoever. Office carparks full, warehouses open, deliveries taking place. Traffic lighter I will admit, but very few premises appeared to be closed.

 

At this stage its looking like a separate outbreak seeded from NSW. 

[belaguttman]

16 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Oh, I wouldn't stop the return of the Olympians of course. But when you see that staggering statistic of 650,000 Australian citizens entering Australia since the pandemic started, it's no wonder that we have imported the virus. I also saw that 93,000 had been allowed to leave since the ban on doing so was brought in. Very few of these departures and arrivals would have been absolutely essential in these days of video conferencing etc. Including Morrison going to New Zealand. Many people have left for "that holiday" or "the lifestyle" or "the plum job" and IMO the nation's public health overrides their "need" to return. In fact it seems that the people who do really need to return are the ones DFAT (or whoever it is) can't seem to help.

The problem isn't returning Australians, the problem is hotel quarantine. It was originally setup as a hotel stay for health staff that didn't want to risk infecting family and was temporarily adapted to house returning quarantine arrivals. A poorly ventilated high density space that housed the infected with the well was unsuitable for the original strain, its totally unsuitable now. Again, the Feds should have been building dedicated quarantine facilities in every State, but then Morrison doesn't 'hold the hose' for anything, it still hasn't even started after one whole year.

We are stuck with a hotel quarantine system that regularly breaches and infects community because we've had a year of not just inaction, but active resistance from the Federal Government. It'll keep breaching unless we totally seal the country and stop every airplane arrival, remember the latest Sydney breach was from flight crew, not returnees. Of course, totally sealing the country is impractical so we are stuck with an unfixable quarantine system that is guaranteed to regularly infect the largely unvaccinated community.

[jw1739]

1 hour ago, belaguttman said:

The problem isn't returning Australians, the problem is hotel quarantine. It was originally setup as a hotel stay for health staff that didn't want to risk infecting family and was temporarily adapted to house returning quarantine arrivals. A poorly ventilated high density space that housed the infected with the well was unsuitable for the original strain, its totally unsuitable now. Again, the Feds should have been building dedicated quarantine facilities in every State, but then Morrison doesn't 'hold the hose' for anything, it still hasn't even started after one whole year.

We are stuck with a hotel quarantine system that regularly breaches and infects community because we've had a year of not just inaction, but active resistance from the Federal Government. It'll keep breaching unless we totally seal the country and stop every airplane arrival, remember the latest Sydney breach was from flight crew, not returnees. Of course, totally sealing the country is impractical so we are stuck with an unfixable quarantine system that is guaranteed to regularly infect the largely unvaccinated community.

That's nitpicking Bela. If there were no passenger arrivals then there would be no need for quarantine except for flight crew.

However, moving on onto the important issue, that is quarantine for those that do arrive, yes I agree that the lack of progress is appalling. To my knowledge there is only one fit-for-purpose facility, and that is in the Territory. There is agreement on one for Victoria but God knows what actual evidence there is on the ground of it - I have no idea. I recall seeing something about one in SA but again, what's actually there physically I have no idea. I've also heard talk about a facility in Brisbane. I cynically suggest that they are all lost in the "projects procedure" somewhere. And of course (to my knowledge) there are no infectious diseases hospitals, nor are all our hospital staff fully vaccinated or all given the right PPE. There is no "National Plan" as it's called - it's just a "concept." I shuddered when I read that "all decisions will be taken by the States" and that "compulsory vaccination in workplaces will be a matter for employers." Our governments, collectively, have failed us.

And yes, after 18 months I am angry about it all. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by jw1739

[belaguttman]

5 hours ago, jw1739 said:

That's nitpicking Bela. If there were no passenger arrivals then there would be no need for quarantine except for flight crew.

However, moving on onto the important issue, that is quarantine for those that do arrive, yes I agree that the lack of progress is appalling. To my knowledge there is only one fit-for-purpose facility, and that is in the Territory. There is agreement on one for Victoria but God knows what actual evidence there is on the ground of it - I have no idea. I recall seeing something about one in SA but again, what's actually there physically I have no idea. I've also heard talk about a facility in Brisbane. I cynically suggest that they are all lost in the "projects procedure" somewhere. And of course (to my knowledge) there are no infectious diseases hospitals, nor are all our hospital staff fully vaccinated or all given the right PPE. There is no "National Plan" as it's called - it's just a "concept." I shuddered when I read that "all decisions will be taken by the States" and that "compulsory vaccination in workplaces will be a matter for employers." Our governments, collectively, have failed us.

And yes, after 18 months I am angry about it all. 

We used to have a great infectious diseases hospital here in Melbourne, it was actually a world leader in its area, Kennett closed it down.

My point about quarantine is that the risk is there because of the inherent limitations of HQ, it would still be there even if we had zero passengers and only had flight crew arrivals - one infected flight crew member has shut down the entire east coast of the country. We can manage more arrivals of we manage it properly. We did quarantine well 100 years ago and the principles have been understood since the Middle Ages, we just aren't doing what we know works and the Federal Government is not in a race to fix it.

[jw1739]

With "regional Victoria" coming out of lockdown I really do think that the State needs to be more targeted with lockdowns. So there's a new case in Caroline Springs today - well that's as far from, say Cranbourne, as is Geelong. Even worse, the Mornington Peninsula is still locked down, some places well over 100km from the nearest infection. It's really little wonder that people are not abiding by the restrictions.

[belaguttman]

24 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

With "regional Victoria" coming out of lockdown I really do think that the State needs to be more targeted with lockdowns. So there's a new case in Caroline Springs today - well that's as far from, say Cranbourne, as is Geelong. Even worse, the Mornington Peninsula is still locked down, some places well over 100km from the nearest infection. It's really little wonder that people are not abiding by the restrictions.

The dilemma is that the more people travel, the more effective general restrictions are, the less they travel, the more likely that targeted restrictions will be effective. look at NSW, targeted restrictions are slowly spreading infection throughout the State as well as to adjacent States. 

Delta strain is going to cause large localised outbreaks with its R0 between 5 and 9, most people will only read to 1 or 2 people but 10-20% will be super-spreaders and will transmit the infection to 10+ people. The restrictions are really designed for them, but there's no way of predicting who they may be in advance. Clearly, the people who travelled whilst infected weren't too sick to travel and probably had minimal or no symptoms but they've often infected a lot of people.

I think that if we are going to have any restrictions at all then we should be getting the maximum benefit for the pain, that won't come by setting restrictions that prevent transmission in the 80%, it needs to be targeted at the 20%

[kingofhearts]

Time to just weld everybody's doors shut so no one can get out ever again.

When's the next state election again? This situation is hopeless

[belaguttman]

We have 2 advantages over a virus: knowledge and cooperation. If we use both, we can suppress community transmission, vaccinate everyone and then Covid-19 will only be a bad cold for almost everyone. The quicker we do it, the quicker we resume our lives the way we would like to. Simples.

[jw1739]

41 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

We have 2 advantages over a virus: knowledge and cooperation. If we use both, we can suppress community transmission, vaccinate everyone and then Covid-19 will only be a bad cold for almost everyone. The quicker we do it, the quicker we resume our lives the way we would like to. Simples.

Agreed, but is that the message we're getting? Is that message clear, unambiguous and succinct? If all 6.7m Victorians wanted the vaccine - a vaccine - tomorrow would there be enough to go round? Every time one of our leaders speaks I hear a slightly different "take" on what the objective actually is, and there seems to be a very fine line between encouragement and punishment, one that those leaders seem quick to step over. 

[belaguttman]

Clearly, some don't seem to understand the message. It seems to have been clear here in Victoria, very confused in NSW.

The problem is that we can see what happens when we solely rely on 'common sense' in NSW, most people comply, but enough don't that we have a R nought of 1.2. This will guarantee either an endless lockdown as the numbest slowly increase, or a capitulation with mass casualties. Sydney ICUs are already close to breaking point, there is virtually no rural ICU capacity anywhere in Australia, Albury Base, a very large tertiary rural teaching hospital has only 6ICU beds for southern NSW and northeast Victoria, and this area is better resourced than many. Behind th bed numbers though is the minimal staffing available to provide care in rural areas, we can see US level or worse deaths if we just 'let it rip' and there's no middle ground with exponential growth. 

This means that, whilst it isn't needed to get get the cooperation of the majority, stronger prescriptive limits, with enforcements are required to get cooperation of the minority. This group is large enough to sabotage the efforts of the majority. Whilst normally I'd prefer education and positive engagement of this group, we've passed the point where they will listen, instead preferring disinformation that confirms their entrenched position.

Covid isn't going away, it'll become endemic like other corona viruses. We can get back to the 'aggressive suppression' position of zero community transmission, but it'll be temporary. The only way we can beat it is with mass vaccination. If only it had been a race, we would have been far ahead of where we are at the moment, however in a month's time we'll have plenty of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna.

Edited August 16, 2021 by belaguttman

[jw1739]

47 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

Clearly, some don't seem to understand the message. It seems to have been clear here in Victoria, very confused in NSW.

The problem is that we can see what happens when we solely rely on 'common sense' in NSW, most people comply, but enough don't that we have a R nought of 1.2. This will guarantee either an endless lockdown as the numbest slowly increase, or a capitulation with mass casualties. Sydney ICUs are already close to breaking point, there is virtually no rural ICU capacity anywhere in Australia, Albury Base, a very large tertiary rural teaching hospital has only 6ICU beds for southern NSW and northeast Victoria, and this area is better resourced than many. Behind th bed numbers though is the minimal staffing available to provide care in rural areas, we can see US level or worse deaths if we just 'let it rip' and there's no middle ground with exponential growth. 

This means that, whilst it isn't needed to get get the cooperation of the majority, stronger prescriptive limits, with enforcements are required to get cooperation of the minority. This group is large enough to sabotage the efforts of the majority. Whilst normally I'd prefer education and positive engagement of this group, we've passed the point where they will listen, instead preferring disinformation that confirms their entrenched position.

Covid isn't going away, it'll become endemic like other corona viruses. We can get back to the 'aggressive suppression' position of zero community transmission, but it'll be temporary. The only way we can beat it is with mass vaccination. If only it had been a race, we would have been far ahead of where we are at the moment, however in a month's time we'll have plenty of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna.

If vaccination is the key - and of course it is - then by now GP Clinics should be working 7 days per week and extended hours on weekdays. This what I mean about "mixed messages." 

[belaguttman]

GPs are supply limited, most only getting small batches of vaccine, mostly AZ. At the moment vaccine uptake is predominantly supply limited, one reason foe the very long queues when and where it is available.

We'll also need to continue making and distancing, probably for another 12-18 months until the reluctant few have either become vaccinated, infected or died,

Edited August 16, 2021 by belaguttman

[kingofhearts]

On 16/08/2021 at 5:48 PM, belaguttman said:

GPs are supply limited, most only getting small batches of vaccine, mostly AZ. At the moment vaccine uptake is predominantly supply limited, one reason foe the very long queues when and where it is available.

We'll also need to continue making and distancing, probably for another 12-18 months until the reluctant few have either become vaccinated, infected or died,

Wasn't the whole point of the vaccine rollout was for the most vulnerable (older people, those with other health problems) to get vaccinated so that everyone else can get back to normal? The average age of the death from the rona is still in the 80's (or right around there I believe) so why should everyone else have to lock down and suffer for a small minority?

I'm not advocating for older people or the most vulnerable to simply be wiped out, but they have had long enough to have the chance to book and get their vaccine, why does everyone else have to suffer simply due to the fact that they are too stubborn to get it?

[jw1739]

41 minutes ago, kingofhearts said:

Wasn't the whole point of the vaccine rollout was for the most vulnerable (older people, those with other health problems) to get vaccinated so that everyone else can get back to normal? The average age of the death from the rona is still in the 80's (or right around there I believe) so why should everyone else have to lock down and suffer for a small minority?

I'm not advocating for older people or the most vulnerable to simply be wiped out, but they have had long enough to have the chance to book and get their vaccine, why does everyone else have to suffer simply due to the fact that they are too stubborn to get it?

I understand where you're coming from but I think you're being a bit harsh. The primary objective of any vaccination program is to prevent as far as is possible serious illness and death, and it makes sense to target first those most likely to suffer those two consequences. In fact the statistic you quote is good evidence that the priority target was appropriate. I don't need to go into a litany of detail of what's gone wrong since January 2020, but there has been continual mixed messaging, lack of clarity about who is supposed to be doing what, shortages of vaccine, unfortunate political point-scoring, and serious failures in communication. This has led to confusion about accessing the vaccine, where to get it, how to book etc. and even now as the Delta mutation is hurting NSW, there are daily stories of people who just cannot book an appointment to receive their first dose. Some people are of course being stubborn (and I'd suggest that's not confined to one demographic) but I don't think it's fair to say  "the oldies and wobblies have had their chance so now let's go back to normal."

[GreenSeater]

1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

I understand where you're coming from but I think you're being a bit harsh. The primary objective of any vaccination program is to prevent as far as is possible serious illness and death, and it makes sense to target first those most likely to suffer those two consequences. In fact the statistic you quote is good evidence that the priority target was appropriate. I don't need to go into a litany of detail of what's gone wrong since January 2020, but there has been continual mixed messaging, lack of clarity about who is supposed to be doing what, shortages of vaccine, unfortunate political point-scoring, and serious failures in communication. This has led to confusion about accessing the vaccine, where to get it, how to book etc. and even now as the Delta mutation is hurting NSW, there are daily stories of people who just cannot book an appointment to receive their first dose. Some people are of course being stubborn (and I'd suggest that's not confined to one demographic) but I don't think it's fair to say  "the oldies and wobblies have had their chance so now let's go back to normal."

As somebody in their mid-twenties, it is absolutely not just the boomers holding out. I’m fully vaccinated, but I know so many people my age who either “don’t trust it” or are “waiting for the Pfizer”. I think that if you’re young, healthy and have a stable income, lockdown makes a lot of young people feel very safe from the virus and happy to avoid facing the reality of it all. If we were to give some kind of plan of how we move out of restrictions and rejoin the rest of the world, it will probably give a lot of people the kick up the arse they need to actually go get it imo.

[jw1739]

28 minutes ago, GreenSeater said:

As somebody in their mid-twenties, it is absolutely not just the boomers holding out. I’m fully vaccinated, but I know so many people my age who either “don’t trust it” or are “waiting for the Pfizer”. I think that if you’re young, healthy and have a stable income, lockdown makes a lot of young people feel very safe from the virus and happy to avoid facing the reality of it all. If we were to give some kind of plan of how we move out of restrictions and rejoin the rest of the world, it will probably give a lot of people the kick up the arse they need to actually go get it imo.

Absolutely. I agree that it's really the lack of a defined plan that is the blockage. We've had the Priority Groups, now the Four Phases, mumblings about employment and certain activities being dependent on being vaccinated, incentives (as if "not dying" isn't a pretty good incentive), and so on and so forth, but nothing is defined or quantified.

Mind you as an oldie I do find it odd that people aren't sure about vaccination. People of my vintage were vaccinated ("inoculated" was the term then) against many diseases before we even knew we had been, and with the subsequent ones as children there was no such thing as a disposable syringe and needle. The syringe was as big as a cattle prod, the needle as big as a darning needle, and no sterilization between shots. You lined up ten at a time and the nurse kept going until the syringe need a refill. And of course the science has improved by orders of magnitude since then.

FMD I can still see that syringe if I think about it!

[GreenSeater]

56 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Absolutely. I agree that it's really the lack of a defined plan that is the blockage. We've had the Priority Groups, now the Four Phases, mumblings about employment and certain activities being dependent on being vaccinated, incentives (as if "not dying" isn't a pretty good incentive), and so on and so forth, but nothing is defined or quantified.

Mind you as an oldie I do find it odd that people aren't sure about vaccination. People of my vintage were vaccinated ("inoculated" was the term then) against many diseases before we even knew we had been, and with the subsequent ones as children there was no such thing as a disposable syringe and needle. The syringe was as big as a cattle prod, the needle as big as a darning needle, and no sterilization between shots. You lined up ten at a time and the nurse kept going until the syringe need a refill. And of course the science has improved by orders of magnitude since then.

FMD I can still see that syringe if I think about it!

Unfortunately the rise of the internet has led to the rise of dangerous misinformation. People once took doctors at their word because they were the experts, now people believe that 15 minutes on Google, a YouTube video and a whole lot of confirmation bias is equivalent to a medical degree and a lifetime of scientific research.

Edited August 18, 2021 by GreenSeater
Spelling

[Shahanga]

On 16/08/2021 at 2:12 PM, kingofhearts said:

Time to just weld everybody's doors shut so no one can get out ever again.

When's the next state election again? This situation is hopeless

Spot on. These authoritarian nutcases seem to think this situation can roll on for years. 

[Shahanga]

2 hours ago, GreenSeater said:

As somebody in their mid-twenties, it is absolutely not just the boomers holding out. I’m fully vaccinated, but I know so many people my age who either “don’t trust it” or are “waiting for the Pfizer”. I think that if you’re young, healthy and have a stable income, lockdown makes a lot of young people feel very safe from the virus and happy to avoid facing the reality of it all. If we were to give some kind of plan of how we move out of restrictions and rejoin the rest of the world, it will probably give a lot of people the kick up the arse they need to actually go get it imo.

They definitely need a kick up the arse. Lockdowns pander to this mindset. Announce an opening date, that’ll get their attention.

As to social media virtue signalling I see so many people do because you got vaccinated, give me a break, get vaccinated to reduce your odds of fucking dying not for social kudos.

[NewConvert]

7 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

Wasn't the whole point of the vaccine rollout was for the most vulnerable (older people, those with other health problems) to get vaccinated so that everyone else can get back to normal? The average age of the death from the rona is still in the 80's (or right around there I believe) so why should everyone else have to lock down and suffer for a small minority?

I'm not advocating for older people or the most vulnerable to simply be wiped out, but they have had long enough to have the chance to book and get their vaccine, why does everyone else have to suffer simply due to the fact that they are too stubborn to get it?

Yes it was and the way it has panned out it wasn't very successful. It also shows that it was a crap plan because the entry point for the virus were our international entry points and the people that should have had the vaccine were any resident that went into an international entry point: taht is all airport staff, bus drivers, anyone who worked at a quarantine facility, etc. Then were the vulnerable.

I would also add that Australia was an outlier with regards to fatalities becuase the overseas experience was that the fatalities were in the under 60s. Certainly teh case in Japan.

6 hours ago, jw1739 said:

I understand where you're coming from but I think you're being a bit harsh. The primary objective of any vaccination program is to prevent as far as is possible serious illness and death, and it makes sense to target first those most likely to suffer those two consequences. In fact the statistic you quote is good evidence that the priority target was appropriate. I don't need to go into a litany of detail of what's gone wrong since January 2020, but there has been continual mixed messaging, lack of clarity about who is supposed to be doing what, shortages of vaccine, unfortunate political point-scoring, and serious failures in communication. This has led to confusion about accessing the vaccine, where to get it, how to book etc. and even now as the Delta mutation is hurting NSW, there are daily stories of people who just cannot book an appointment to receive their first dose. Some people are of course being stubborn (and I'd suggest that's not confined to one demographic) but I don't think it's fair to say  "the oldies and wobblies have had their chance so now let's go back to normal."

I would add that the hospitals are not stretched beyond their capacity. The failure was purely by the federal government in that Australia has the expertise to deliver and the feds chose not to use it.

4 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Absolutely. I agree that it's really the lack of a defined plan that is the blockage. We've had the Priority Groups, now the Four Phases, mumblings about employment and certain activities being dependent on being vaccinated, incentives (as if "not dying" isn't a pretty good incentive), and so on and so forth, but nothing is defined or quantified.

Mind you as an oldie I do find it odd that people aren't sure about vaccination. People of my vintage were vaccinated ("inoculated" was the term then) against many diseases before we even knew we had been, and with the subsequent ones as children there was no such thing as a disposable syringe and needle. The syringe was as big as a cattle prod, the needle as big as a darning needle, and no sterilization between shots. You lined up ten at a time and the nurse kept going until the syringe need a refill. And of course the science has improved by orders of magnitude since then.

FMD I can still see that syringe if I think about it!

Ahh yes those syringes...I do remember them and why I still fear the needles, sorry sharp pipes that they used. My brother still carries the scar.

[belaguttman]

10 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

Wasn't the whole point of the vaccine rollout was for the most vulnerable (older people, those with other health problems) to get vaccinated so that everyone else can get back to normal? The average age of the death from the rona is still in the 80's (or right around there I believe) so why should everyone else have to lock down and suffer for a small minority?

I'm not advocating for older people or the most vulnerable to simply be wiped out, but they have had long enough to have the chance to book and get their vaccine, why does everyone else have to suffer simply due to the fact that they are too stubborn to get it?

The original strain of Covid-19 disproportionately killed the elderly, it made sense to vaccinate them initially. Any vaccine strategy though is going to come with pluses and minuses, The current delta strain highlights the minuses of that strategy as is attacking the most socially connected and largest risk taking group, the young. An alternative strategy would have been to protect the most vulnerable by vaccinating along the expected lines of transmission. Either strategy though will have been stymied by the biggest problem of inadequate supply procurement by the Federal Government and the long delay between doses for the preferred AZ vaccine. I expect that we'll start to see a rapid increase in the fully vaccinated numbers as many people complete their 3 month wait between AZ doses. Of course, all that should have happened three months earlier but our Praying Minister seemed to believe that a press release was going to be an effective pandemic response. 

Of course, if the Federal Government had begun building custom made quarantine facilities 12 months ago (instead of this week) we wouldn't be in this situation either. Once most of us are vaccinated, we can safely allow Covid to move through the population, however there'll be  small window for that, there's mounting evidence that Pfizer immunity starts to wane after 6 months, it's likely to require a booster. My worry is that Federal Government incompetence will delay delivery of this in enough numbers that allows safe opening up.

[jw1739]

25 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

The original strain of Covid-19 disproportionately killed the elderly, it made sense to vaccinate them initially. Any vaccine strategy though is going to come with pluses and minuses, The current delta strain highlights the minuses of that strategy as is attacking the most socially connected and largest risk taking group, the young. An alternative strategy would have been to protect the most vulnerable by vaccinating along the expected lines of transmission. Either strategy though will have been stymied by the biggest problem of inadequate supply procurement by the Federal Government and the long delay between doses for the preferred AZ vaccine. I expect that we'll start to see a rapid increase in the fully vaccinated numbers as many people complete their 3 month wait between AZ doses. Of course, all that should have happened three months earlier but our Praying Minister seemed to believe that a press release was going to be an effective pandemic response. 

Of course, if the Federal Government had begun building custom made quarantine facilities 12 months ago (instead of this week) we wouldn't be in this situation either. Once most of us are vaccinated, we can safely allow Covid to move through the population, however there'll be  small window for that, there's mounting evidence that Pfizer immunity starts to wane after 6 months, it's likely to require a booster. My worry is that Federal Government incompetence will delay delivery of this in enough numbers that allows safe opening up.

Has any building ACTUALLY STARTED? Mickleham is still "in the planning stage." FMD both the Brits and the Chinese built complete hospitals in a week.

[NewConvert]

7 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Has any building ACTUALLY STARTED? Mickleham is still "in the planning stage." FMD both the Brits and the Chinese built complete hospitals in a week.

Proper hospital and quarantine facilities are both expensive and time consuming. Both the Bendigo and Royal Adelaide hospitals came way over budget and time overruns. My brother was involved building a pharmaceutical plant which took almost three years to build and these type of plants and hospitals share a lot of things in common.

You can build emergency wards quickly (army field hospitals are an example) but the mortality rate is high.

[belaguttman]

4 hours ago, NewConvert said:

Proper hospital and quarantine facilities are both expensive and time consuming. Both the Bendigo and Royal Adelaide hospitals came way over budget and time overruns. My brother was involved building a pharmaceutical plant which took almost three years to build and these type of plants and hospitals share a lot of things in common.

You can build emergency wards quickly (army field hospitals are an example) but the mortality rate is high.

Royal Adelaide was a folly, no hospital needs robot food delivery. Quarantine facilities can be built quickly with relocatable prefabs that can be repurposed. They are quarantine accommodation, not hospitals.  Not only are these facilities way overdue, but they were actively opposed for most of last year by the Federal Government.

[jw1739]

4 hours ago, NewConvert said:

You can build emergency wards quickly (army field hospitals are an example) but the mortality rate is high.

My point is not so much that we should be building hospitals, but that in an acute situation - as we are right now - we should be able to get off our arses and MOVE.  We haven't even got as far as allocating ONE hospital for COVID patients with the consequence that the disease is spreading to non-COVID patients.

[NewConvert]

7 hours ago, belaguttman said:

Royal Adelaide was a folly, no hospital needs robot food delivery. Quarantine facilities can be built quickly with relocatable prefabs that can be repurposed. They are quarantine accommodation, not hospitals.  Not only are these facilities way overdue, but they were actively opposed for most of last year by the Federal Government.

Prefab relocatable without suicide points? Have not seen those. And no I did not write that quarantine facilities need be hospitals, I wrote that they share a lot of things in common such as air circulation.