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The Coronavirus Thread (We nearly didn't see City in the 2021 Grand Final)


CityWildcat
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Fled Adelaide yesterday (was over for work) and I can tell you that people were pretty chilled about going into lockdown. All they kept saying was that the state government should never have been so smug. And they didn't want to get to 600 cases per day as in Melbourne. I did point out that given the population differences the equivalent figre would be about 170 people per day. And that is likely to overwhelm their hospital system as Adelaide has the oldest demographic in the country.

I also think that the lesson learnt is go in early and go in hard. Going wishy washy as the UK did, does not work.

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  • 1 month later...
33 minutes ago, Baka1 said:

Calling it now by Mid Feb we’ll be in some sort of lockdown

Unless we get quarantine under control, yes.

I know it would be harsh, but IMO anyone who left Australia after March 2020 should have no automatic right of return unless their departure was for absolutely essential reasons. Just wandering off and then expecting to return as they feel like it - no.

And why we persist with quarantine in the middle of our cities heaven knows. Get the facilities into remote and secure areas please. Don't care if it's in tents.

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34 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Unless we get quarantine under control, yes.

I know it would be harsh, but IMO anyone who left Australia after March 2020 should have no automatic right of return unless their departure was for absolutely essential reasons. Just wandering off and then expecting to return as they feel like it - no.

And why we persist with quarantine in the middle of our cities heaven knows. Get the facilities into remote and secure areas please. Don't care if it's in tents.

They don’t want to get it right... They want us locked down... Inb4 we see headlines of “The super UK Strain is out in the open in Vic”... Watch this space. Lockdown 3.0 imminent 

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2 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

Will people here be getting the vaccine first thing? Seems the quickest way for everything to get back to normal is for everyone to get it ASAP.

There's a timetable outlined by Morrison. There's a series of slides - I'll post the link later unless someone else can do it more immediately.

Public pressure has already moved the program forward by at least a month. I know I'm in Group 1b because of age.

The main issue we face right now is fuck-ups in quarantine BOTH for international arrivals and INTERSTATE flights. Only yesterday does it appear that the whole country agreed to work to the same guidelines. And I'm fed up with people's sob stories about having to do quarantine, or they can't get a flight, or whatever. People who choose to leave home in the middle of a pandemic other than for essential reasons don't deserve anything as far as I am concerned.

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20 hours ago, Baka1 said:

They don’t want to get it right... They want us locked down... Inb4 we see headlines of “The super UK Strain is out in the open in Vic”... Watch this space. Lockdown 3.0 imminent 

Unlikely, contact tracing appears to be working well now.

2 hours ago, kingofhearts said:

Will people here be getting the vaccine first thing? Seems the quickest way for everything to get back to normal is for everyone to get it ASAP.

I will be, as soon as it's available. They all appear to be effective, at least in the short-medium term,  so I'll take whichever vaccine is offered

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22 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

I will be, as soon as it's available. They all appear to be effective, at least in the short-medium term,  so I'll take whichever vaccine is offered

Despite my phobia of needles, me too. And annually if it comes to that.

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3 hours ago, jw1739 said:

There's a timetable outlined by Morrison. There's a series of slides - I'll post the link later unless someone else can do it more immediately.

Public pressure has already moved the program forward by at least a month. I know I'm in Group 1b because of age.

The main issue we face right now is fuck-ups in quarantine BOTH for international arrivals and INTERSTATE flights. Only yesterday does it appear that the whole country agreed to work to the same guidelines. And I'm fed up with people's sob stories about having to do quarantine, or they can't get a flight, or whatever. People who choose to leave home in the middle of a pandemic other than for essential reasons don't deserve anything as far as I am concerned.

There are inevitably going to be occasional breaches of even the best quarantine system unless you design it like a prison version of this. You just need to build layers of containment and detection into the quarantine programme and learn from the inevitable mistakes.

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45 minutes ago, belaguttman said:

 

There are inevitably going to be occasional breaches of even the best quarantine system unless you design it like a prison version of this. You just need to build layers of containment and detection into the quarantine programme and learn from the inevitable mistakes.

Possibly, but letting a person out of quarantine after just 10 days without a further test simply on the basis that she did not show any symptoms (who determines that?) on an assumption that she is no longer contagious...there is no evidence for that assumption that anyone can point me to...and now she has tested positive again...that's a fuck-up and not a breach.

How many more fuck-ups do we need? 

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20 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Possibly, but letting a person out of quarantine after just 10 days without a further test simply on the basis that she did not show any symptoms (who determines that?) on an assumption that she is no longer contagious...there is no evidence for that assumption that anyone can point me to...and now she has tested positive again...that's a fuck-up and not a breach.

How many more fuck-ups do we need? 

It's not a fuck-up, it's about infectivity. She may have tested positive but infectivity after 10 days in asymptomatic is very low, even if they are shedding virus on testing, it's usually virus fragments, not infective agents. This may continue for 2-3 months, hence the fairy widespread detection of Covid in sewerage but it doesn't indicate active infection or infectivity.

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1 hour ago, belaguttman said:

It's not a fuck-up, it's about infectivity. She may have tested positive but infectivity after 10 days in asymptomatic is very low, even if they are shedding virus on testing, it's usually virus fragments, not infective agents. This may continue for 2-3 months, hence the fairy widespread detection of Covid in sewerage but it doesn't indicate active infection or infectivity.

As I read it she had been asymptomatic for just 3 days. Where's the data on infectivity for this virus? For this mutation thereof? I would suggest that until that data is properly established we should err on the side of caution.

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2 hours ago, jw1739 said:

As I read it she had been asymptomatic for just 3 days. Where's the data on infectivity for this virus? For this mutation thereof? I would suggest that until that data is properly established we should err on the side of caution.

20% of infected people are big virus shedders and create 80% of the infections. It's unclear whether the UK and SA variants are the same. In time the normal pattern for viruses is to become more infectious but less pathogenic, there's no reason why this one won't be the same. I agree that we should err on the side of caution but keeping people isolated until they stop shedding virus may take 3 to as long as 6 months without any evidence that they remain infectious during the tail of the infection.

The problem is also that we have picked hotels, totally unsuitable for long-term confinement, most don't even have access to fresh air. Unfortunately many returning travellers also arrive with other medical problems and so need to be quarantined close to tertiary hospitals. We used to have the ideal quarantine facility, the Fairfield infectious diseases Hospital, world leading, but closed by Jeff Kennett as part of his destruction of the Victorian health system back in the 90s. It was never replaced.

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30 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

My considered view is border closures to other states with less than 5 cases a day is a sign of a utter incompetence

% diagnosed cases doesn't equal 5 cases. 5 cases of unknown community transmission is a great concern, % cases within an identified isolating cluster is a small concern. Qld was shut down as the reproduction number of the new mutation is unclear, now it seems that the infected worker was one of the majority of low virus shedders so it's likely that Qld will open up.

The NSW border was closed because there are ongoing community transmission cases and a reluctance to enforce barriers to transmission like mask wearing, or banning crowds from the cricket. This had already resulted in transmission back into Victoria. By the time community cases are detected, there's probably a new cluster of about 40, even if it's picked up early, and these need to be identified and further transmission opportunities shut down before the cluster dies out. You can see we've now done that very well here.

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4 hours ago, Shahanga said:

My considered view is border closures to other states with less than 5 cases a day is a sign of a utter incompetence

I disagree.

We have almost 1000 people self isolating in Victoria as a result of the one seed case from NSW that started the Black Rock cluster. NSW continues to refuse to mandate and enforce the simplest of control measures and IMO keeping the border closed is completely justified.

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4 hours ago, Shahanga said:

Actually NSW should be congratulated. They have managed this outbreak like the others they picked up from Victoria and have shown what can be done with good systems and without panic, only closing state borders as a last resort.

It's a matter of personal opinion. IMO we should eliminate the virus from Australia and do what is necessary to keep it that way. There is no life while the damned thing is still lurking amongst us - you have to be on your guard the whole time and you can see the haunted look in people's eyes. All jurisdictions except NSW are trying to do that, whether they call it "elimination" or not.

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It's called aggressive suppression rather than elimination, because in infectious disease terminology, elimination means that it no longer exists in the wild, like smallpox. It means that we no longer need a public health response to smallpox, no vigilance, no inoculations, whereas we can locally suppress Covid so that there isn't a single case in the country, but we still need a public health response as it's ongoing existence in the world means that it can be introduced again and spread locally.

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2 hours ago, belaguttman said:

It's called aggressive suppression rather than elimination, because in infectious disease terminology, elimination means that it no longer exists in the wild, like smallpox. It means that we no longer need a public health response to smallpox, no vigilance, no inoculations, whereas we can locally suppress Covid so that there isn't a single case in the country, but we still need a public health response as it's ongoing existence in the world means that it can be introduced again and spread locally.

OK. I accept that. But to that majority that isn't up with infectious disease terminology, I'd say that's close to if not semantics. 

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5 hours ago, jw1739 said:

OK. I accept that. But to that majority that isn't up with infectious disease terminology, I'd say that's close to if not semantics. 

Yes, for ordinary use, there's little difference, but for public health and infectious disease workers, aggressive suppression requires ongoing vigilance and a strong public health response, elimination requires a celebratory party. That's why when people say 'are we aiming for elimination/ they will say no, it's too early to think about a party?

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On 11/01/2021 at 7:40 AM, Shahanga said:

Actually NSW should be congratulated. They have managed this outbreak like the others they picked up from Victoria and have shown what can be done with good systems and without panic, only closing state borders as a last resort.

 

20 hours ago, jw1739 said:

It's a matter of personal opinion. IMO we should eliminate the virus from Australia and do what is necessary to keep it that way. There is no life while the damned thing is still lurking amongst us - you have to be on your guard the whole time and you can see the haunted look in people's eyes. All jurisdictions except NSW are trying to do that, whether they call it "elimination" or not.

This is it. The response is all a matter of opinion at the moment. It will take many years before we can do a state by state comparison from a both a health perspective and economic perspective. And then there will be long arguments as to whether costs and benefits have been correctly analysed.

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Irish Health Dept forced to admit in court CV 19 virus doesn't exist

Here is a video from 12/27/2020. A court in Ireland refused to provide evidence of isolate (laboratory isolate) of the Sars-cov-2 virus. Specifically, the court acknowledged that it had no evidence that the virus had ever been isolated (purified from other biomaterial) by anyone in a laboratory. In other words, the court stated that it has no evidence of the existence of a scientifically obtained strain of this virus.

websitethatredditremovesstartswithBITandrhymeswithPARACHUTE /video/LjCLRqJpxlXK/

In addition to refusing to provide scientific evidence for the existence of the sars-cov-2 virus, the court also failed to provide the scientific justification for the mandatory wearing of masks, social distancing, and, of course, vaccination.

In the second half of the video, very reasonable questions are asked:

- what kind of vaccine (or preventive drugs) can we even talk about when there is no causative virus of the "disease"?

- what kind of "coronavirus" mutations are we constantly being told about by the so-called "scientists", if there is no virus isolate?

And many others.

Of course, the global financial capital does not care about all this and will continue to force its narrative as if nothing had happened. In November WHO officials were still shamelessly appealing to the statements of the Chinese authorities (dated 07.01.2020) about the alleged isolation of a new virus, as well as to the WHO statistics concerning 60 million "confirmed cases" and more than 1.4 million deaths "from covid" as proof of the "existance of the Sars-Cov-2". https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pandemic-idUSKBN2862DL .

In other words, WHO officials are only referencing the media and themselves…

They got tangled up in their own lies. For example, back in mid July, in a COVID-19 diagnostic instruction published on their official website, on p. 39 it was explicitly stated that they were testing PCR on some surrogate/simulation of the sars-cov-2 virus. Because they simply didn't have the real virus in their laboratory in Atlanta, one of the largest in the USA. How is that possible? How is that possible that they are ordering to clean driveways and public places, presumably because virus is everywhere, yet they don't have it in their largest labs? Well, the answer is simple and I think you know it already.

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7 hours ago, playmaker said:

Irish Health Dept forced to admit in court CV 19 virus doesn't exist

Here is a video from 12/27/2020. A court in Ireland refused to provide evidence of isolate (laboratory isolate) of the Sars-cov-2 virus. Specifically, the court acknowledged that it had no evidence that the virus had ever been isolated (purified from other biomaterial) by anyone in a laboratory. In other words, the court stated that it has no evidence of the existence of a scientifically obtained strain of this virus.

websitethatredditremovesstartswithBITandrhymeswithPARACHUTE /video/LjCLRqJpxlXK/

In addition to refusing to provide scientific evidence for the existence of the sars-cov-2 virus, the court also failed to provide the scientific justification for the mandatory wearing of masks, social distancing, and, of course, vaccination.

In the second half of the video, very reasonable questions are asked:

- what kind of vaccine (or preventive drugs) can we even talk about when there is no causative virus of the "disease"?

- what kind of "coronavirus" mutations are we constantly being told about by the so-called "scientists", if there is no virus isolate?

And many others.

Of course, the global financial capital does not care about all this and will continue to force its narrative as if nothing had happened. In November WHO officials were still shamelessly appealing to the statements of the Chinese authorities (dated 07.01.2020) about the alleged isolation of a new virus, as well as to the WHO statistics concerning 60 million "confirmed cases" and more than 1.4 million deaths "from covid" as proof of the "existance of the Sars-Cov-2". https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pandemic-idUSKBN2862DL .

In other words, WHO officials are only referencing the media and themselves…

They got tangled up in their own lies. For example, back in mid July, in a COVID-19 diagnostic instruction published on their official website, on p. 39 it was explicitly stated that they were testing PCR on some surrogate/simulation of the sars-cov-2 virus. Because they simply didn't have the real virus in their laboratory in Atlanta, one of the largest in the USA. How is that possible? How is that possible that they are ordering to clean driveways and public places, presumably because virus is everywhere, yet they don't have it in their largest labs? Well, the answer is simple and I think you know it already.

So what mysterious force is responsible for the worldwide increase in the excess death rate?

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Probably an unpopular opinion, but I don't think much of Victoria going ahead with the Tennis after all we went through last year. Already three plane-loads of the entourage are in quarantine, and when you see where the charter flights are coming from it's hardly surprising. There have also already been a couple of attempts at breaching the quarantine rules. 

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13 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Probably an unpopular opinion, but I don't think much of Victoria going ahead with the Tennis after all we went through last year. Already three plane-loads of the entourage are in quarantine, and when you see where the charter flights are coming from it's hardly surprising. There have also already been a couple of attempts at breaching the quarantine rules. 

It’s like they’ve got two different people making these decisions!

one person banning anyone returning from another state that has even a single case and another organising tennis players and hanger oners to come from actual virus hotspots.  
Given their collective memory loss perhaps they keep forgetting what the last decision was?

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

I am rapidly losing faith in Professor Sutton. Too many instances of the Boris variant have shown that people can become infected after the 16th day. Why not take the precautionary principle an extend the quarantine period to 18 days? Furthermore even if the nebuliser was responsible for the Holiday Inn break out, it does not explain the previous instances.

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On 16/01/2021 at 2:40 PM, jw1739 said:

Sunshine, suggest you broaden your research before posting such drivel.

https://www.aap.com.au/proof-the-virus-behind-covid-19-doesnt-exist-fails-basic-biology-test/

Seriously you need to stop, in none of those studies have they followed the Koch's Postulates gold standard nor the more flexible River's Postulates.

They used the PCR test to replicate something that they expected it to look like, ie SARS-CoV-1 which is basically common influenza, cultured it in monkey cell (from memory) but never PROVED anything other than that.

All the other studies are doing is comparing a genetic code to the one published from China which never satisfied any of the above mentioned gold standard which BTW MUST BE FULFILLED in the world of microbiology and virology.

Also the published rebuttals of the original China study led the scientist to admit their failings but the WHO obviously didn't allow retraction and never published the admission.

If you look hard enough you will still find it.

Just stop instictively nay saying and educate yourself properly for your own sake.

On 16/01/2021 at 9:29 PM, belaguttman said:

So what mysterious force is responsible for the worldwide increase in the excess death rate?

No official data supports your claim, WHO is holding off 2020 total mortality rate data, so their published data are projections and the published statistical change is insignificant.

CDC also published data which shows no significant statistical variation in total mortality, and what is interesting is that the c19 deaths with co-morbilites are in line with the last 3 years influenza co-morbilities and those deaths without co-morbilies are also in line with previous influenza numbers which is less that 5% and have the same age demographics.

In other words, current official data show NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

Its all public, just look it up.

 

 

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1 hour ago, NewConvert said:

I am rapidly losing faith in Professor Sutton. Too many instances of the Boris variant have shown that people can become infected after the 16th day. Why not take the precautionary principle an extend the quarantine period to 18 days? Furthermore even if the nebuliser was responsible for the Holiday Inn break out, it does not explain the previous instances.

I've lost faith in all of them - remember that they're all government employees, and IMO cannot give a truly independent opinion. Quarantine comes from the Venetian word quarantena meaning 40 days, the period of isolation of ships and people practised as a measure of disease prevention related to the plague. Like you I cannot see for the life of me why we try to cut corners on the time period, and surely it is better to build in the safety margin right from the start? Yes, quarantine costs money, but I doubt that the cost comes anywhere near what contact tracing and lock-downs are costing.

I don't pretend to be an expert but my experience with heavy metals tells me that in all cases we should consider all possible exposure routes - absorption, digestion and respiration/inspiration. It seems that respiration/inspiration has been ignored or dismissed in Australia - let's not forget that at the start respiratory protection (masks) was considered "unnecessary in the Australian context" (or words to that effect). In fact we are still declining to use P95 masks for everyone in the front line of exposure to the virus.

And don't get me started on why these quarantine facilities are located right in the centre of our major population centres. The principle of "isolation" demands that they be located elsewhere. Basic stuff.

It seems that governments, State and Commonwealth, and their medical "experts" are always defiant and defensive, and are having to be dragged kicking and screaming every step of the way. 

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22 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

I don't pretend to be an expert but

Then don't pretend to be one because what came after this statement was absolute rubbish.

The masks are ineffective. Many independent SCIENTIFIC studies have shown their ineffectiveness and many have been inconclusive and none have shown the masks to be effective.

However many studies have shown that in immune compromised patients, those with cardiac, respiratory and inflammatory conditions and of course the elderly, that the wearing of any face covering exacerbates the condition significantly because of the fact that that masks cause hypoxia (15+% reduction in oxygen),  hypercapnea which causes metabolic acidosis and more importantly pulmonary acidosis, which all lead to significant changes in the bodies functions mostly due to triggering a range of stress biochemistry (which I won't elaborate on for this purpose).

Do this to a healthy person and there won't be anything significant just headaches, sinusitis, stress reaction due to increase cortisol and adrenalin, chest pain, and possibly mild interstitial pulmonary oedema due to an inflammatory reaction which all in a package present as 'flu-like symptoms'

Now you do this to the above mention patient types and you get bad bad bad results like exacerbation of OA, angina, CVD, COPD, tachycardia, CVA, URTI, tinnitus and most importantly the immune system is compomised and as a package often leads to hypercytokinemia and resultant death.

All this for something that supposably has a 0.0005% fatality rate.

All this is backed by science and data and all this is what we are seeing clinically.

The doctors know it, the clinicians know it, the scientists know it, we all know it.

And just remember, all these people you see on TV, they are paid actors, all these actor crying on TV about 'ooh its horrible, I lost my sense of smell' well guess what , if the average person went into their garage and glued a small piece of sand paper to a stick and put it up their nose and scraped their olfactory nerve endings guess what, his sense of smell wouldn't be very  good either with a very unsettling infamatory response to go with it.

And its amazing how many incidences we are seeing with naso-pharyneal and ethmoidal and maxillary sinus problems in the past 6 months.

And lastly this heart string pulling of news of people dying in nursing home is disgusting. Statically no different from any other year as we have averaged about 1000 deaths in nursing homes per month in Victoria for the last 5 years. Yes, old people die and especially in nursing home and losing a loved won is very sad. But look what they have done, they have weaponised natural death of elderly people, they have force them to die alone, they have kept their loved ones away at the moment where they needed them the most for comforting and spiritual closure, and the government pays the nursing home for putting C19 on the death certificate. This is a disgrace, evil and inhumane.

Don't continue to buy into the media and political 'science' but rather question the information and verify whether their information is supported by solid scientific data.

You will find it isn't or it is a blatant lie.

 

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8 hours ago, jw1739 said:

I've lost faith in all of them - remember that they're all government employees, and IMO cannot give a truly independent opinion. Quarantine comes from the Venetian word quarantena meaning 40 days, the period of isolation of ships and people practised as a measure of disease prevention related to the plague. Like you I cannot see for the life of me why we try to cut corners on the time period, and surely it is better to build in the safety margin right from the start? Yes, quarantine costs money, but I doubt that the cost comes anywhere near what contact tracing and lock-downs are costing.

I don't pretend to be an expert but my experience with heavy metals tells me that in all cases we should consider all possible exposure routes - absorption, digestion and respiration/inspiration. It seems that respiration/inspiration has been ignored or dismissed in Australia - let's not forget that at the start respiratory protection (masks) was considered "unnecessary in the Australian context" (or words to that effect). In fact we are still declining to use P95 masks for everyone in the front line of exposure to the virus.

And don't get me started on why these quarantine facilities are located right in the centre of our major population centres. The principle of "isolation" demands that they be located elsewhere. Basic stuff.

It seems that governments, State and Commonwealth, and their medical "experts" are always defiant and defensive, and are having to be dragged kicking and screaming every step of the way. 

You are correct that cuarentena originated in Venice but that was almost 500 years ago, since then we progressed a bit and we can be more nuanced.

As far as independence is concerned you will never get the type of independence you are hinting at. If they work for the private sector people will think that they are motivated by profit. So what you really need are multi-millionaire virologists that do research for fun and altruism. It's not going to happen. Sutton can hedge his bets on lengthening quarantine and that can be approved by the government who have to consider wider implications as well. By the same token if I was asked to vote to allow international flights into Australia I would vote for no more international arrivals until we get 60% of the population vaccinated although I know that it violates their human rights and is on shaky legal grounds - I can make exceptions and this is one.

As to masks, many years ago a surgeon friend of mine told me that during surgery they regularly get the masked replaced because they become ineffective. Hence when he was in Japan he noted that most people were not wearing them correctly and that the moisture in the air would mean that they would need to be replaced every 30 minutes or so. Then there are questions as to why so many people here are deliberately not wearing them properly (pulled below their nose) and that is because Australia seems to rank in the top 3 for just about every respiratory illness that there is. So I would like money to be spent on designing better masks, a report on the state of our lungs and why they are so crap and what can be done to improve them.

Quarantine hotels? Well what do you expect when we have had forty years of tax cuts? We get what we paid for.

No my loss of faith on Sutton is that he is not qualifying his statements and not even considering lengthening quarantine.

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