Us & The League Table

[Embee]

On 04/05/2021 at 1:01 PM, Embee said:

Lid is well and truly off.

I'll accept my green line in advance, thank you.

 

[Shahanga]

49 minutes ago, Embee said:

 

No thanks to you. Trying to jinx us.

9 points clear now with 6 games to play and playing a higher class of football- we are looking very good.

[MHFC-FAN]

11 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

No thanks to you. Trying to jinx us.

9 points clear now with 6 games to play and playing a higher class of football- we are looking very good.

And realistically for any team to snatch 1st off us we would have to lose at least 4 of our last six matches. Unlikely to happen given we have been very solid this season... 

[n i k o]

1 hour ago, Embee said:

 

At 2-2 I thought about your post and I was preparing a very civilized rant after the game aimed at you. Fortunately, we won so carry on. 

[ChopperHeart]

23 hours ago, MHFC-FAN said:

And realistically for any team to snatch 1st off us we would have to lose at least 4 of our last six matches. Unlikely to happen given we have been very solid this season... 

And we have 4 out of 6 at home, and with away to Brisbane and a (not really away) derby. Given last two games are against the two shit kicker teams on the bottom, surely.... SURELY we can’t be caught from here.

If we lose 4 of those, we deserve nothing

[jw1739]

IMO while we're having a good look at the Plate I don't think we have one hand on it yet. We play Adelaide, Wellington and Central Coast at home in quick succession, and then we are away to Brisbane. All these four teams are capable of upsetting us, and depending on the way other matches go the gap between us and the chasing pack could be reduced quickly, putting pressure on us. So I still say take one match at a time. 

[citymad]

Can some really smart forumite please do some calculations/scenarios of outcomes. I mean surely there is a sliding door moment when we can’t be caught for the plate right. I am just not smart enough to work it out given the variables. 

[Shahanga]

21 minutes ago, citymad said:

Can some really smart forumite please do some calculations/scenarios of outcomes. I mean surely there is a sliding door moment when we can’t be caught for the plate right. I am just not smart enough to work it out given the variables. 

Ok,

We are 9 points clear with 6 games to play. (11 ahead of Brisbane who have a game in hand)

well in terms of “balance of probabilities” I reckon the best the chasing teams are likely to do is average 2 points per game. That would be 12 points. Now we are already 9 ahead, so we get 3 more points and we’re basically there, with only a disaster of monumental proportions stopping us. (Officially as it currently stands we would need to win 3 more games, or perhaps 3 and a draw if Brisbane were to win every game.)
Worth remembering that our goal difference is worth half a point too.

PS but our best advantage isn’t the maths, it’s that we are head and shoulders the best team in the league.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Shahanga

[n i k o]

24 minutes ago, citymad said:

Can some really smart forumite please do some calculations/scenarios of outcomes. I mean surely there is a sliding door moment when we can’t be caught for the plate right. I am just not smart enough to work it out given the variables. 

By my quick calculation we win another 3 games that will keep us 9 points clear of the pack and if Brisbane having an extra game in hand wins their remaining 7 games, they would need the only ones that could overtake us in this scenario. 4 wins from 6 and were done and dusted. 

Note: this scenario is the unlikely scenario that one of the other teams wins every game. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by n i k o

[kingofhearts]

37 minutes ago, citymad said:

Can some really smart forumite please do some calculations/scenarios of outcomes. I mean surely there is a sliding door moment when we can’t be caught for the plate right. I am just not smart enough to work it out given the variables. 

If we win more games then the other teams we will win the plate.

Simples.

[HeartFc]

1 hour ago, citymad said:

Can some really smart forumite please do some calculations/scenarios of outcomes. I mean surely there is a sliding door moment when we can’t be caught for the plate right. I am just not smart enough to work it out given the variables. 

Too many games left to bring the maths out but here is my quick summary of the remaining games and match ups of the 6 teams below us:

Sydney have 1 less game and their lead up includes 3 games which will snatch points against WSW, Adelaide and Brisbane Meow. Great for us as 1 draw in any of those games will make it almost impossible for them or the others to catch. 

Adelaide have the same "6 point" fixtures (WSW, Brisbane Woof and Sydney), however they also have us, which makes them more dangerous. 

CCM have danger games against us, the McCows, Sydney and Brisbane Oink. They're in horrible form, 1 win in their last 9 games and only 2 homes games of 6 left. I don't see them as a threat at all. 

McCows have the easiest run but have played 1 extra game. Their form sucks, 1 win in 6 games and that was against a state 2 level team (V13tory). They are my dark horse pick in the finals due to their passing game but 9 points behind with 1 less game is no threat to the premiers plate. 

WSW have danger games against Sydney, Brisbane Raw and Adelaide. They've scored 12 goals in their last 3 games so they seem to be going all out for a top 4 spot. 1 less game and have to travel to Perth and Adelaide. Don't see them winning 4 out of 5, which will be the minimum they'll need to catch up.

Brisbane Bears 1 less game and second best in form in the league, they are technically the biggest threat and have a whopping 5 of 7 "6 points" fixtures coming up. They can steam roll our completion and end up nipping at our heals. On top of that, they play us at home. Might come down to the Roger Merrett being in form. 

Melbourne City Ok, we just need to win against feenicks and Newcastle Jets to win it, those are both easy wins at home. In fact 4 from 6  games are at home. We also have State 4 team V13tory to ice the cake. We'll win the league by 15 points.

Edited May 10, 2021 by HeartFc

[malloy]

You know you are a long suffering Heart supporter when you are 9 points clear on top of the league with a game in hand and 6 games to go,two of which are against the bottom 2 sides, whilst other teams in the chasing pack are dropping pionts for fun and you are still worried we might throw it away somehow.

All you optimists are clearly 'CFG era supporters' without the deep psychological scars gained from the wheelie bin era haha.

PS. This is not, nor should it be construed as, a dig at anyone who didn't support Heart, but supports City.

[Tommykins]

So basically (due to the fact that the middle of the table is so congested), it looks like we'll probably guarantee finals a game or two before we win the league. We'll probably finish ~53 points give or take a bit, if we assume our goal difference as not going to get overtaken, we'll probably wrap it up against the Mariners, or more likely the Roar.

 

[jw1739]

I don't think it's possible to predict so far out from the finish. An injury, a yellow card, a dodgy VAR call, a missed penalty - these things can change the outcome of a whole season.

It can go right down to the wire. Michael Thomas scored in injury time in the final match of the season for Arsenal to beat Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield in 1989 and win the English First Division title.

Three seasons ago Hamburg were the only remaining club to have had continuous membership of the Bundesliga. They were relegated. For the past two seasons they have led the 2. Bundesliga for three-quarters of the season or more only to falter, and once again it looks as though they will be in the 2. Bundesliga again next season.

In our case we're odds-on to win it. But we've conceded a couple of silly goals in recent matches, and we're missing a lot of easy chances to put matches away. It's not over yet.

[Tommykins]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/a-league/

If you're after a bunch of nerds opinion.

[Harrison]

12 hours ago, malloy said:

You know you are a long suffering Heart supporter when you are 9 points clear on top of the league with a game in hand and 6 games to go,two of which are against the bottom 2 sides, whilst other teams in the chasing pack are dropping pionts for fun and you are still worried we might throw it away somehow.

All you optimists are clearly 'CFG era supporters' without the deep psychological scars gained from the wheelie bin era haha.

PS. This is not, nor should it be construed as, a dig at anyone who didn't support Heart, but supports City.

It’s why I make my wife take the bins out. I can’t even look at another wheelie bin. 

[jw1739]

2 minutes ago, Harrison said:

It’s why I make my wife take the bins out. I can’t even look at another wheelie bin. 

That has got to be the post of the season!

[fensaddler]

I've been through a number of promotion campaigns and cup runs with my home town side, Walsall, the mighty Saddlers, over the years. They are a perennially unsuccessful side, with a mordant set of supporters whose gloom is lifted by wry dark humour. We never believed it was real until it happened, and was mathematically irrefutable. So I know these feelings. We cannot let ourselves believe in case it all falls through our fingers like dust. But from that experience I can also tell you that those fears aren't real. This is our season, we are finally going to do it. Just be there to sing it home. Because you will tell your grandchildren about this season, and we will tell each other stories about it for as long as we have breath. Finally we make history. Finally we are vindicated. Finally we banish the bins. 

[jw1739]

1 hour ago, fensaddler said:

I've been through a number of promotion campaigns and cup runs with my home town side, Walsall, the mighty Saddlers, over the years. They are a perennially unsuccessful side, with a mordant set of supporters whose gloom is lifted by wry dark humour. We never believed it was real until it happened, and was mathematically irrefutable. So I know these feelings. We cannot let ourselves believe in case it all falls through our fingers like dust. But from that experience I can also tell you that those fears aren't real. This is our season, we are finally going to do it. Just be there to sing it home. Because you will tell your grandchildren about this season, and we will tell each other stories about it for as long as we have breath. Finally we make history. Finally we are vindicated. Finally we banish the bins. 

What shall we sing? That oldie but goldie - "Ee-I- Addio - we've won the league?"

[fensaddler]

8 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

What shall we sing? That oldie but goldie - "Ee-I- Addio - we've won the league?"

'Are you watching Victory?' 

And I think, just to rub it in 'There's only one team in Melbourne'. 

A round of 'Campiones, Campiones' would also probably be in order.... 

[MHFC-FAN]

19 hours ago, ChopperHeart said:

And we have 4 out of 6 at home, and with away to Brisbane and a (not really away) derby. Given last two games are against the two shit kicker teams on the bottom, surely.... SURELY we can’t be caught from here.

If we lose 4 of those, we deserve nothing

Couldn't agree more, particularly the losing 4 part... Not only do we have to lose at least 4 but the challenger has to win at least 4...

[MHFC-FAN]

17 hours ago, malloy said:

You know you are a long suffering Heart supporter when you are 9 points clear on top of the league with a game in hand and 6 games to go,two of which are against the bottom 2 sides, whilst other teams in the chasing pack are dropping pionts for fun and you are still worried we might throw it away somehow.

All you optimists are clearly 'CFG era supporters' without the deep psychological scars gained from the wheelie bin era haha.

PS. This is not, nor should it be construed as, a dig at anyone who didn't support Heart, but supports City.

If we bottle it from here. The club should be covering a few sessions at the psychologist and I'm not referring to the players, just us long standing heart fans... Surely we can't fk it from here 🙄

[belaguttman]

47 minutes ago, fensaddler said:

'Are you watching Victory?' 

And I think, just to rub it in 'There's only one team in Melbourne'. 

A round of 'Campiones, Campiones' would also probably be in order.... 

I think that we are best just ignoring the visit0rs completely, our success will have nothing to do with them (apart from their contribution to our GD)

[jw1739]

Important match tonight - Brisbane vs. Central Coast. If Brisbane win this they will jump to second place, 8 points behind us, 20 matches played by each.

[Missing_Moy]

3 hours ago, belaguttman said:

I think that we are best just ignoring the visit0rs completely, our success will have nothing to do with them (apart from their contribution to our GD)

🙏

[Shahanga]

39 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Important match tonight - Brisbane vs. Central Coast. If Brisbane win this they will jump to second place, 8 points behind us, 20 matches played by each.

Tomorrow?

[jw1739]

8 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

Tomorrow?

Yes, getting ahead of myself! Nerves!

[Shahanga]

Relax.

Thursday’s the bigger game.

[Shahanga]

Fire up boys.

brisvegas done.

”and now you’re gonna believe us”

[haz]

Scoreless draw between Roar and Mariners.

I like that.

[Nate]

It's coming home

[HeartFc]

That 0-0 last night was the perfect result.

If Adelaide beats us tonight they'll get within 6 points of us with 5 games to play. They'll be the only threat left IMO. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by HeartFc

[johnno cpfc]

when we win the plate! there will be no more final series as i believe FFA have scrapped it in favour of the Australia cup with regards to Asian champions league . But i may be wrong !

 

[Shahanga]

Sing it boys.

”and now you’re gunna believe us”

[thisphantomfortress]

Lids so far off I am beginning to wonder if there ever was a lid

[SF33]

On 11/05/2021 at 4:00 PM, belaguttman said:

I think that we are best just ignoring the visit0rs completely, our success will have nothing to do with them (apart from their contribution to our GD)

Yep, that's poor stepbrother mentality. Would they be chanting about Melbourne City if they had clinched the Premier's Plate against another random club? I dunno, but I doubt it. For the first time, we're consistently showing that we're easily the best football team in the state and we shouldn't waste the moment by thinking about them.

As far as waiting for something to go wrong with the premiership race, I honestly haven't been worried about it. In that sense, we've never really been that close to winning it in the past, so I have no nightmares from our history to concern me. In our history, we've been terrible (Heart days) then an underachiever/also-ran (City days). There was one season (maybe 15-16) where we briefly hit to top of the table fairly late in the campaign and then we got smashed in our last two games and finished third or fourth.

I think the closest we've come to a heartbreaking moment, which every supporter will know what you're talking about in a few words would be "Riley Mcgree's scorpion" or perhaps "Luke Brattan, Rhyan Grant". It's not like we're talking about a decades long history of us dropping silverware in the most inexplicable ways.

[Deluka]

City win and Victory to give us a guard of honour before we beat them 8-0.

[thisphantomfortress]

43 minutes ago, Deluka said:

City win and Victory to give us a guard of honour before we beat them 8-0.

They're too petty to do it 

[Shahanga]

For those who don’t have maths as a strong suite, the bne-ccm game and the win over Adelaide mean that as it currently stands we need just 5 more points to have an unassailable lead.

(because of their game in hand 6th placed Brisbane have the highest points potential, second placed Mariners can only reach a maximum of 4 more points than what we currently have now; with our massive goal difference we only need to be equal on points to win)

[fensaddler]

1 hour ago, Shahanga said:

For those who don’t have maths as a strong suite, the bne-ccm game and the win over Adelaide mean that as it currently stands we need just 5 more points to have an unassailable lead.

(because of their game in hand 6th placed Brisbane have the highest points potential, second placed Mariners can only reach a maximum of 4 more points than what we currently have now; with our massive goal difference we only need to be equal on points to win)

Which means that we could be clinching the trophy at home a week on Saturday.