The Run Home and Realistic Expectations

[Harrison]

Customary thread to discuss the remaining fixtures and our probable finishing position. 

WSW (H), Jets (A), CCM (H), Wellington (A).

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Hyundai A-League 2017/18

Sydney FC 23 16 4 3 52

Newcastle 23 14 5 4 47

Melb Victory  23 10 5 8 35

Melb City  23 10 4 9 34

Adelaide Utd 23 8 6 9 30

WS Wanderers 23 7 9 7 30

Brisbane Roar 23 8 4 11 28

Perth Glory 23 8 2 13 26

CC Mariners 23 4 8 11 20

Well Phoenix 23 4 5 14 17

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The next two fixtures will probably determine where we finish. Two losses and we could drop down to 5th depending on other results. 

Going on our form, I'd say that 4th/5th is most likely. I think 3rd is too much for us, unless we find some serious form next week. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Harrison

[jeffplz]

We’ll win 4 points from the rest of our games this season

[jw1739]

I had a look at the statistics since we became Melbourne City. 

2014-15. Last five matches produced 5 points. We finished 5th on 35 points. Points required for top four finish were 46, and to finish 3rd were also 46.
2015-16. Last five matches produced 9 points. We finished 4th on 44 points. Points required to finish 3rd were 48.
2016-17. Last five matches produced 6 points. We finished 4th on 39 points. Points required to finish 3rd were 42.

We currently sit on 33 points. History suggests a finish on 38-42 points. If we can finish strongly with 9+ points we might finish top four, even crack 3rd place, but history suggests that it's more likely that we won't achieve either.

[Jovan]

At this point in time I think 4th and a loss in the first week of finals. 

BUT if we can somehow turn things around find some form and consistency who knows we might make a granny.

It won't take much. Firstly Bruno must become Bruno again, Arzani and Vidosic need to get back to the levels they showed during our mini run. Budzinski needs to put in full 90mins for the next 5 or so games. Jamo Bort Jako and Atkinson just need some consistent games and performances and play as a collective each week. Brattan and either Bozanic, Mauk, (Malik if he returns) and maybe Genreau must find a way to play effectively.  And then the bench of Kamau Fitzy  Delbridge La Rocca need to prove they should be starting. 

The above isn't really a deluded pipe dream all those possibilities have happened at some time previously, but can it all come together in our last 5 plus finals? I don't think so but ultimately Wazza has the greatest ability to change our path and he will be judged accordingly. 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Jovan
Had Kilkenny instead of Fitzy (Freudian slip)

[jw1739]

Among other things Bruno is going to have to have someone to lay the ball off to and not try to do it all himself. That's where I think Budzinski needs to be, because he has a hell of a shot on him. Other people such as Mauk and Brattan (particularly) need to learn quickly that if they don't actually shoot they are very unlikely to score. We were piss poor in this department in the Derby.

Yes, of course we can get there, but IMO we're going to have to play with a lot more verve and passion than we have recently.

[Jovan]

17 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Among other things Bruno is going to have to have someone to lay the ball off to and not try to do it all himself. That's where I think Budzinski needs to be, because he has a hell of a shot on him. Other people such as Mauk and Brattan (particularly) need to learn quickly that if they don't actually shoot they are very unlikely to score. We were piss poor in this department in the Derby.

Yes, of course we can get there, but IMO we're going to have to play with a lot more verve and passion than we have recently.

I really like a front 4 of Arzani Bruno Vidosic and Budzinski. They are all totally different players and on paper and potential look like a real weapon. A bit like Mooy Novillo and Bruno were, all very different but it worked collectively. 

[bt50]

I think we'll sneak third with 9-10 points, Victory are the only threat imo to pip us. They will have ACL to contend with as well.
Draw or win Adelaide next week and you can concrete top 4.

I give us every chance of making the GF if we finish 3rd, but near to none if we finish 4th. Newy holds to fears for me, even though they have clearly been the more consistent side all season. 

Edited March 9, 2018 by bt50

[Imtellingyou]

Where's Victory fixture ? It's a two horse race. 

We'll keep 3rd spot. 

 

[haz]

4th

[jw1739]

2 hours ago, Imtellingyou said:

Where's Victory fixture ? It's a two horse race. 

We'll keep 3rd spot. 

 

Victory play:
Central Coast (AAMI)
Perth (away)
Western Sydney (AAMI)
Wellington (AAMI)
Sydney (away)

I see 7-9 easy points there.

Adelaide play:
City (Coopers)
Newcastle (Coopers)
Wellington (Coopers)
Sydney (away)
Western Sydney(away)

Bit of a lottery there.

[belaguttman]

Like most, I think that we'll struggle to score and continue to leak goals. 3 to 5 points is likely, an away final that we'll lose and yet another wasted season. Coach taking us nowhere

[kingofhearts]

We're fucking hopeless so we'll lose every game and finish 10th

[Shahanga]

I’d love to post something negative and anti Wazza, but actually I reckon we’ll go ok when “Comrade” Osama comes back in. 

[kingofhearts]

1 hour ago, Shahanga said:

I’d love to post something negative and anti Wazza, but actually I reckon we’ll go ok when “Comrade” Osama comes back in. 

I always post something positive mate, you know me.

I'm positive we'll fuck this up, somehow

[HeartFc]

Don't care.

[neio]

I'll say we will get 9-10 points

We beat ccm and Wellington and I think we will beat one of WSW or Adelaide. Neither are very good

[jw1739]

Western Sydney will take the three points tonight against Wellington - leading 3-1 with only minutes to go. Will bring them to 30 points.

[Jovan]

The plot thickens.

Our next 3 games look even tougher now than a few weeks ago. Wanderers got demolished in their derby recently and it looked to me as they weren't much chop and after what we did to Adelaide in our last game I genuinely thought we had their measure. Both games now are going to be tough. Adelaide away is never easy and especially when it really matters. And how can we forget some of the pathetic home losses to the Wanderers over the years. I can't see us getting anything away to Newcastle. 

So that just leaves Mariners home and Wellington away. 

So for me we will lose and draw against Adelaide and Wanderers  (not sure which) and lose to Jets and win at home to Mariners and away to Wellington. 

So effectively 7 points. Will 40 be enough for third, probably not, we are looking at a real possibility of 5th and an away final in the first week. 

Our whole season will be decided in the next 2 games and unless we can finally play like we should on paper it will be another wasted season.

[jw1739]

6 hours ago, Jovan said:

The plot thickens.

Our next 3 games look even tougher now than a few weeks ago. Wanderers got demolished in their derby recently and it looked to me as they weren't much chop and after what we did to Adelaide in our last game I genuinely thought we had their measure. Both games now are going to be tough. Adelaide away is never easy and especially when it really matters. And how can we forget some of the pathetic home losses to the Wanderers over the years. I can't see us getting anything away to Newcastle. 

So that just leaves Mariners home and Wellington away. 

So for me we will lose and draw against Adelaide and Wanderers  (not sure which) and lose to Jets and win at home to Mariners and away to Wellington. 

So effectively 7 points. Will 40 be enough for third, probably not, we are looking at a real possibility of 5th and an away final in the first week. 

Our whole season will be decided in the next 2 games and unless we can finally play like we should on paper it will be another wasted season.

TBH @Jovan I wouldn't mind missing the finals altogether if I thought that City Football Group would learn something from that about how to manage a club in the A-League, and that we would then see some improvement in the future. But I doubt that.

You are correct. The next two matches will define our season.

[playmaker]

Malik and Bart back, Bruno getting up to speed, Bud in his natural position and Arzani being told to stop being a hero, we will go undefeated for the rest of the season.

The understanding between Bud and Bruno is the key and the rest of the team just needs to feed them quickly and stop stuffing around with the ball. Especially out wide where forward thrusts are hampered by our own doing, this is where Wazza needs to play narrow and wait for the full back overlaps if needed for wide plays rather than dragging our midfield wide where we open a vulnerability centrally, and where we often concede.

Bart, Jacobsen and Malik are good enough to stop any opposition and the central midfield must be in a numerical advantage to cover for wide counters if our fullbacks are caught high.

Wazza really needs to fix this midfield.

If, on the other hand he wants to play the long hoofball tactics then maybe he should start an aerial target up forward like Delbridge to feed Bruno and Arzani on the break, not a preference but could work and allows a 5 back formation if we take the lead.

Food for thought.

 

[Imtellingyou]

We will be in the GF. Not good enough? Welcome to the A-league season 17-18.

[Demetriuss]

Defensive counter is the way we need to play

[Shahanga]

We are currently 4 points ahead of 6th and 8 points ahead of 7th, with 4 games left.

Based on that I’d say we’ll fall into 6th. Perth will need a wet sail to catch us, possible, but unlikely.

[jw1739]

12 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

We are currently 4 points ahead of 6th and 8 points ahead of 7th, with 4 games left.

Based on that I’d say we’ll fall into 6th. Perth will need a wet sail to catch us, possible, but unlikely.

Brisbane are now 7th on 28 points, just 6 behind us, and we are 8 points ahead of Perth on 26. Mathemetically we can finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th.

[Sanci100]

My prediction is  we will win two and draw one and with 41points will finish 4th. Three wins and we can finish third... maybe too optimistic?

[Shahanga]

44 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

Brisbane are now 7th on 28 points, just 6 behind us, and we are 8 points ahead of Perth on 26. Mathemetically we can finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th.

Cool. 7th is still on then. 

[haz]

1 hour ago, Shahanga said:

Cool. 7th is still on then. 

I'm torn between choosing, finishing 7th missing the finals (putting us out of our misery early) and hoping for a thorough investigation by CFG, or finishing fourth making the finals (yay) but then not showing up and losing.

[malloy]

11 hours ago, jw1739 said:

Brisbane are now 7th on 28 points, just 6 behind us, and we are 8 points ahead of Perth on 26. Mathemetically we can finish anywhere from 3rd to 8th.

Based on the games ahead I dont know if it isathematically possible for us to finish 8th or even 7th. I believe too many of the teams that would need to jump above us have to play each other for vital points needed to finish above us. 

Edited March 17, 2018 by malloy
Edit: I take that back. It is possible, but higjly unlikely

[Forever City]

Discuss.

[rass]

1 hour ago, Forever City said:

Discuss.

Don't know what the point is TBH.

You have to compare against yoursef first, which makes us this season only a 4 point worse team than at the same stage that year.

Question probably is how did Sydney get over 20 points better in one season.

 

[haz]

5th is my prediction at this stage

[Harrison]

Our next match against WSW is another big one. A loss narrows the gap to one point between us, meanwhile Victory play Perth and Adelaide play Newcastle. 

Hard to see Adelaide beating Newcastle even on their home deck and Perth could do us a big favour by taking at least a point.

None of that matters if we bottle it on Saturday though. Simply must win. 

[n i k o]

I'd say we have slightly less than equal opportunity as the tards of taking third spot simply based on the fact we are behind them by a point. In term of the last four games though I reckon both teams are pretty equal in difficulty. Their away games are Perth and Sydney which I'd say is only marginally tougher than Jets and Nix for us. Both teams have WSW at home and then they have Nix whilst we have CCM. All things equal I feel whichever team can get 7+ points of the 12 remaining will take third position. That point we are behind though is the only factor that I could see affecting this outcome.*

 

*Or a complete capitulation from either team over the remaining games

Edited March 19, 2018 by n i k o

[bt50]

6 minutes ago, n i k o said:

I'd say we have slightly less than equal opportunity as the tards of taking third spot simply based on the fact we are behind them by a point. In term of the last four games though I reckon both teams are pretty equal in difficulty. Their away games are Perth and Sydney which I'd say is only marginally tougher than Jets and Nix for us. Both teams have WSW at home and then they have Nix whilst we have CCM. All things equal I feel whichever team can get 7+ points of the 12 remaining will take third position. That point we are behind though is the only factor that I could see affecting this outcome.*

 

*Or a complete capitulation from either team over the remaining games

I'll stand by my call that 9 points will get it done although CCM have done us no favours in terms of GD on the weekend.

[n i k o]

6 minutes ago, bt50 said:

I'll stand by my call that 9 points will get it done although CCM have done us no favours in terms of GD on the weekend.

I'd be confident of claiming third with 9 points too. I'm not at all confident we can actually do it though. Nor do I think the tards can do it either. But I do see both teams picking up at two wins along the way. Depends if we can get that difficult third win along the way or at the very least draw the other two games and take 8 points. 

[bt50]

6 minutes ago, n i k o said:

I'd be confident of claiming third with 9 points too. I'm not at all confident we can actually do it though. Nor do I think the tards can do it either. But I do see both teams picking up at two wins along the way. Depends if we can get that difficult third win along the way or at the very least draw the other two games and take 8 points. 

Our draw, moreso than Victory imo is more doable. Two home games against bottom half sides and the bottom team away are all should win games. Like you though, my confidence is not high that we'll take all 9 from those encounters. This weeks game is the one that concerns me the most tbh. Win that and i think the mood should lift somewhat around the traps.

Edited March 19, 2018 by bt50

[Harrison]

BT, do you think we will actually win three though?

Haven't won in four now whereas Victory are three in a row. 

Edit: Already answered!

Edited March 19, 2018 by Harrison

[johnno cpfc]

All you doom and gloom predictors we played reasonably well on Friday but again dithered in front of goal and when we did get a chance it was butchered along with the missed pen but u think we will regain third spot and finish well.

[n i k o]

30 minutes ago, johnno cpfc said:

All you doom and gloom predictors we played reasonably well on Friday but again dithered in front of goal and when we did get a chance it was butchered along with the missed pen but u think we will regain third spot and finish well.

Performance wasn't bad on Friday. But we haven't won in 4 games either so the evidence suggests more struggle ahead. 

[bt50]

18 minutes ago, n i k o said:

Performance wasn't bad on Friday. But we haven't won in 4 games either so the evidence suggests more struggle ahead. 

Come now @n i k o. On that logic we'd have not lost another game after round 4...