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The Race for 3rd & the Elusive ACL Spot (probably)


bt50
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6 Rounds left and the situation is as follows:

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MV are 9 points ahead in 2nd and WSW lead the chasing pack 6 points behind in 6th. The chances of either gap being made up are next to naught, esp given ACL committments for WSW as well as GD so isolating these three teams seems pretty sensible. City seem the least in form of the three at the moment however Brisbane are stuttering as well and have ACL to deal with as well, whilst Perth have a fairly difficult run in to the finals but look the best atm.

How many points from our last 6 fixtures will secure us 3rd spot? 

For mine I think 12 points will probably do it; wins against CCM, Newy, WSW and Adel are all achievable. Syd away is unlikely and Perth away in the last round could prove the key: perhaps a point will be enough there. 

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I like the positive thinking.  Yes, we could.  Having blown it from a position of strength last year, anything could happen, and probably will.  It would be sweet to make, and even win, a final given all the trials we've had this season.  Could win it, could finish fifth and go out of the finals at the first stage.  But still all to play for.  Could be down to defensive fitness and form...

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Looking at individual matches it looks more than likely. What worries me is looking back at the last, say 6 rounds. Of the remaining 6 rounds I reckon we're good for 2 wins. How many points we pick up in draws is anyone's guess but I reckon we'll go 2 wins 2 draws and 2 losses giving us a total of 8 points. 

38 points will be more than enough to get us into finals. 

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6 minutes ago, n i k o said:

Nah no chance. But I'm not talking about coming third nor am I even considering it a likely possibility. 

Ok. Totally agree.

If anything over the last 2 or 3 seasons has taught us we are probably more likely to finish 6th than 3rd.

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1 hour ago, n i k o said:

Looking at individual matches it looks more than likely. What worries me is looking back at the last, say 6 rounds. Of the remaining 6 rounds I reckon we're good for 2 wins. How many points we pick up in draws is anyone's guess but I reckon we'll go 2 wins 2 draws and 2 losses giving us a total of 8 points. 

38 points will be more than enough to get us into finals. 

Given that we are sitting on an 8-6-7 record and with only two home matches to go, 2-2-2 looks about the maximum to me. Just another 33% season.

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1 hour ago, jw1739 said:

Given that we are sitting on an 8-6-7 record and with only two home matches to go, 2-2-2 looks about the maximum to me. Just another 33% season.

Maximum? Given we will probably start favourite in 4 of our 6 games thats not really logical...

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2 hours ago, Dylan said:

If we finish third and reach the final, given that we won the cup, id be happy with the season as a whole. 

I'd be rapped if we finished  third and made the final (I'm assuming your meaning Grand final). We would need 4 to 5 wins and seeing we have 8 in total and knowing how we end seasons I can't see it.

Hope I'm completely off. 

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9 minutes ago, Jovan said:

I'd be rapped if we finished  third and made the final (I'm assuming your meaning Grand final). We would need 4 to 5 wins and seeing we have 8 in total and knowing how we end seasons I can't see it.

Hope I'm completely off. 

Ive actually re thought my position and not sure I do want to finish third since I highly doubt we could both compete in the ACL and win the league next season

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TBH, with the home straight that we have, I'll be happy with 3rd or 4th and a home final. The Cup is a bit of a consolation prize because it doesn't take us into Asia, but we beat the two best teams to get there and overall it does represent an improvement on previous seasons.

That plus the "right" manager and all will be forgiven.

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6 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

TBH, with the home straight that we have, I'll be happy with 3rd or 4th and a home final. The Cup is a bit of a consolation prize because it doesn't take us into Asia, but we beat the two best teams to get there and overall it does represent an improvement on previous seasons.

That plus the "right" manager and all will be forgiven.

Agree with this, think youll find most if we had a home final and the FFA cup and a new manager coming in it would be seen as an acceptable season in most peoples eyes

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1 hour ago, Dylan said:

Agree with this, think youll find most if we had a home final and the FFA cup and a new manager coming in it would be seen as an acceptable season in most peoples eyes

And just a slight naggong what could have been. Still a bit has to happen first.

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with Brisbane on 30 points / 6 games to play and looking shite over the last few weeks (partly due to ACL, partly due to JA being, well ..., JA), Brisbane will struggle to get much beyond 40 points (particularly with games at home to Victory and away to Perth to come).

Perth were going great guns and seemingly rose up the ladder from nowhere - but then again in the 10 games since the start of 2017 Perth have only played against teams in the top five twice.  of their remaining five games, they are due to play Victory this week (a second successive road trip FWIW), followed by Sydney, Brisbane and us (the only respite is a game against Adelaide lodged in between Sydney and Brisbane).

so in that sense, i dont see our chances at getting a home final as about our results as a stand alone and getting to 42+ points; more so matching and bettering one of Perth or Brisbane.  our run in does include games away to Sydney, WSW and Perth - all of which will be tough. that said, we have matched up well against Sydney all season, WSW are stretched across two fronts and Perth didnt really play well get points against us - more that we threw points away both times we have played them.

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Games we should win: CCM, New and Adel but our form on shoukd win games means we will pick up at best 2 wins.

Games that could go either way: Just WSW will be lucky to come away with the draw.

Games we should lose: Syd and Perth. If Sydney decide to rest players we may get something out of it.

Conclusion: We will only get 6-7 points from here

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  • 2 weeks later...

2 down and a four point gap now opens up on Perth. Hopefully Adelaide can do us a solid and take at least a point v Brisvegas tomorrow and we can open the gap further. I still think two wins from our last four will be enough to nick 3rd given we have a big advantage in GD, but 3 will all but guarantee it.

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3rd place isn't a guaranteed ACL spot. The HAL gets 2.5 ACL places, Premiers and Grand Final winners are the two spots and then the next best team on the ladder gets the qualifying place.

If we finish 3rd, Victory 2nd and Sydney finish premiers. If say City and Roar (4th) make the grand final and Roar win, the .5 qualifying spot will go to Victory as they're the next highest place team.

All im getting at is that 3rd placed doesn't mean we are straight in the ACL, if we do get in we still have to qualify and still could get smashed by some random Chinese team in the qualifier.

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10 minutes ago, haz said:

3rd place isn't a guaranteed ACL spot. The HAL gets 2.5 ACL places, Premiers and Grand Final winners are the two spots and then the next best team on the ladder gets the qualifying place.

If we finish 3rd, Victory 2nd and Sydney finish premiers. If say City and Roar (4th) make the grand final and Roar win, the .5 qualifying spot will go to Victory as they're the next highest place team.

All im getting at is that 3rd placed doesn't mean we are straight in the ACL, if we do get in we still have to qualify and still could get smashed by some random Chinese team in the qualifier.

Hence the (probably) in the thread title. History has shown its highly unlikely that the 3rd placed team misses out on the qualifying slot however.

I'm exceptionally confident that when we get to Asia we'll make an excellent account of ourselves, as the club stated from the outset of the takeover that it wanted to be the best team in Asia. Tbh I think we might even see CFG invest even more heavily in the club once we achieve that goal.

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31 minutes ago, bt50 said:

Hence the (probably) in the thread title. History has shown its highly unlikely that the 3rd placed team misses out on the qualifying slot however.

I'm exceptionally confident that when we get to Asia we'll make an excellent account of ourselves, as the club stated from the outset of the takeover that it wanted to be the best team in Asia. Tbh I think we might even see CFG invest even more heavily in the club once we achieve that goal.

I agree with this. Our problem is getting there.

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55 minutes ago, bt50 said:

Hence the (probably) in the thread title. History has shown its highly unlikely that the 3rd placed team misses out on the qualifying slot however.

I'm exceptionally confident that when we get to Asia we'll make an excellent account of ourselves, as the club stated from the outset of the takeover that it wanted to be the best team in Asia. Tbh I think we might even see CFG invest even more heavily in the club once we achieve that goal.

Yea all true, who knows how the finals will go a simple refeering desicion can change everything.


I hope CFG will invest heavily if we do make ACL, a further benefit would be that the team would probaly fly first class on Ethiad and not have the problems like Brisbane.

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The run in from here:

We have WSW (A), Sydney (A), Adelaide (H), and Perth (A).

Brisbane have Victory (H), CCM (H), Perth (A), Phoenix (H).

Perth have Sydney (H), Adelaide (A), Brisbane (H), City (H).

Still not going to be easy for us. I wouldn't like to predict many of those.

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15 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

The run in from here:

We have WSW (A), Sydney (A), Adelaide (H), and Perth (A).

Brisbane have Victory (H), CCM (H), Perth (A), Phoenix (H).

Perth have Sydney (H), Adelaide (A), Brisbane (H), City (H).

Still not going to be easy for us. I wouldn't like to predict many of those.

I think 5 points (draw or win against Perth) will be enough for us.

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2 hours ago, haz said:

According to reports Ross Aloisi punched an AUFC official in the tunnel. If you watch the end of the game you can see someone on the floor of the tunnel.

I guess their not going to Adelaide next season after all. 

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11 hours ago, haz said:

According to reports Ross Aloisi punched an AUFC official in the tunnel. If you watch the end of the game you can see someone on the floor of the tunnel.

Didn't they introduce insane punishments (like 2 years) to stop JR coaches doing shit like this? Hope the ffa give him the full smack down (they wont)

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55 minutes ago, thisphantomfortress said:

Didn't they introduce insane punishments (like 2 years) to stop JR coaches doing shit like this? Hope the ffa give him the full smack down (they wont)

Surely they have to, cant just go round smacking people.

On a side note the Aloisi bros anoy me! I think of spoilt kids when i think of them, kick and scream till they get there way, and its like theyre unfairly treated all the time. Just my opinion before i get hounded by the anger that lives in this forum of recent times. 

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2 minutes ago, HeartOfCity said:

Surely they have to, cant just go round smacking people.

On a side note the Aloisi bros anoy me! I think of spoilt kids when i think of them, kick and scream till they get there way, and its like theyre unfairly treated all the time. Just my opinion before i get hounded by the anger that lives in this forum of recent times. 

I don't think expressing dislike for the brothers Aloisi is likely to provoke much disagreement on here...

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