cadete Posted August 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, Tesla said: Yeah that sounds good and makes a lot of sense, would be more work though I imagine but there definitely could be something there. Funnily I saw a similar one about jockeys mentioned on punters.com.au the other day (I rarely read their forum as it seems to be full of retards and degenerates but occasionally there is something interesting), but that maybe only applies to the UK. It was basically that there was a jockey racing one race at one track and then travelling like 200km to race another horse elsewhere the same day, not sure how it worked out. Could only imagine something like that happening maybe in NSW in Australia. Yeah, that used happen a bit with Melbourne Jockeys when they still had Group Races (Even Group Ones) on Saturday nights at Canterbury... but that was yonks ago. So many Metro Tracks have disappeared or about to disappear since I first started punting... just look at Adelaide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted August 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I dont know what I am doing in The Memsie or The Race to The Rose tomorrow... anyone else know what they are doing or have any insight to offer as both races look fairly open affairs to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted August 26, 2016 Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 I will most likely bet on both races but I have no idea until the last second since my current approach basically involves watching the market for certain patterns etc. I doubt it works on Group races anyway since there is so much money in the market, but overall it's promising (though inconvenient). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted August 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Tesla said: I will most likely bet on both races but I have no idea until the last second since my current approach basically involves watching the market for certain patterns etc. I doubt it works on Group races anyway since there is so much money in the market, but overall it's promising (though inconvenient). I doubt I will win either... In The Memsie if I bet on a Sprinter they will probably go real fast and a more genuine WFA Horse will come over the top of them... I could see this def happening if Charmed Harmony decides to push Lord of The Sky. Vice versa if I go for a more genuine WFA horse then the leaders will probably not get pushed and will stagger down the hill and have the race over by the 500 meter mark due to Caulfield's bias towards frontrunners. ATM I dont mind Mahuta... for the distance, track record, and being a frontrunner at a good gate... but who knows. The Race to The Rose seems even harder to pick, trying to choose between a horse that has shown form already as a 3YO compared to one who blitzed as a 2YO of which there are more than normal. I guess I am more inclined to go for a horse who was lightly raced as a 2YO with its 3YO season in mind but its a bloody open market. I guess the Waterhouse horse looks alright... Edited August 26, 2016 by cadete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted August 27, 2016 Report Share Posted August 27, 2016 (edited) There was absolutely huge money last second on betfair for Moss My Name which smashed the tab highway handicap at good odds, very interesting. It was definitely unusual money even for a big-ish race. Edited August 27, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted August 27, 2016 Report Share Posted August 27, 2016 Bet Sofia Rosa but I reckon I should have gone Mahuta, lets see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted August 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2016 On 8/27/2016 at 4:10 PM, Tesla said: Bet Sofia Rosa but I reckon I should have gone Mahuta, lets see They went way too fast and after only 200m I said to my disinterested partner that it was over for me... Charmed Harmony tried to get the jump on them and pinch the race but predictably of course could not do as such over 1400m. With 550m left it had two lengths on the field, Mahuta had to bring the field back to the leader and did well to be near the placemakers considering... but it didn't matter as Black Heart Bart would have won anyway even if they had gone slower. He is obviously a genuine WFA horse and I guess the question is whether he is a Miler or if he can run any further... apparently he has been set for the Plate unless he falls at a longer distance beforehand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted August 29, 2016 Report Share Posted August 29, 2016 On 8/19/2016 at 2:48 PM, Tesla said: Given the forums favourite horse (thanks to hedaik), Will be going around again soon. Passed the stewards trial and jockey said they had troubles trying to stop it from going too fast (owners are trying to keep things on the downlow) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted August 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, hedaik said: Will be going around again soon. Passed the stewards trial and jockey said they had troubles trying to stop it from going too fast (owners are trying to keep things on the downlow) Yeah, it def only knows one pace... If he can get a couple of lengths on them at the bend in fields of his calibre then he will be very hard to catch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted August 29, 2016 Report Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 hour ago, hedaik said: Will be going around again soon. Passed the stewards trial and jockey said they had troubles trying to stop it from going too fast (owners are trying to keep things on the downlow) Keep us updated, will be interesting to see what the odds are like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 The threads favourite horse is going around again on Sunday Pakenham Race 8, no odds up yet. Ran a trial last week and came third with the jockey trying to make the horse look no good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, hedaik said: The threads favourite horse is going around again on Sunday Pakenham Race 8, no odds up yet. Ran a trial last week and came third with the jockey trying to make the horse look no good. Threw $10 each way on it. See how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 (edited) Maybe $100 ew for me, depends on odds (the higher, the more I will bet, tesla gambling logic) Is this a legit Pakenham race or was it moved to Pakenham? Cant remember, has it run synthetic before? Should be bet365 or sportsbet with odds first. Edited September 16, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Tesla said: Maybe $100 ew for me, depends on odds (the higher, the more I will bet, tesla gambling logic) Is this a legit Pakenham race or was it moved to Pakenham? Cant remember, has it run synthetic before? Should be bet365 or sportsbet with odds first. Was 17/4.80 on Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Tesla said: Maybe $100 ew for me, depends on odds (the higher, the more I will bet, tesla gambling logic) Is this a legit Pakenham race or was it moved to Pakenham? Cant remember, has it run synthetic before? Should be bet365 or sportsbet with odds first. Mr Owner says it trains on synthetic and its trials were on synthetic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 Just now, bt50 said: Was 17/4.80 on Ladbrokes Hmm, I guess cause Sunday race Ladbrokes get early odds up, usually only bet365 and sportsbet do early odds on non big races. Not sure if should take this or wait. 6 minutes ago, hedaik said: Mr Owner says it trains on synthetic and its trials were on synthetic okay, $100 ew it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 (edited) Look at this Canelo horse it beat last win, has gone on to win a few wins BM64s. Even the field it smashed the first time around looks decent. Basically even without the inside information it looks pretty good at these odds. Edited September 16, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 Out of interest, what can people oddsboost it to on Ladbrokes, I only get 19 odds-boosting the 17, but I guess thats cause my account is promo banned? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bt50 Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 (edited) Just now, Tesla said: Out of interest, what can people oddsboost it to on Ladbrokes, I only get 19 odds-boosting the 17, but I guess thats cause my account is promo banned? Nah i only got $19.00 and im a pretty infrequent punter Edited September 16, 2016 by bt50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 1 minute ago, bt50 said: Nah i only got $19.00 and im a pretty infrequent punter I bet @tomby gets more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 Sportsbet up now, 14/3.9. So maybe take Ladbrokes ASAP, but bet365 might do some retarded shit like they often do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted September 16, 2016 Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 Is this kartem around boy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted September 17, 2016 Report Share Posted September 17, 2016 5 hours ago, Jimmy said: Is this kartem around boy? Yep Ended up putting on a tenner @ $17 with Ladbrokes oddboost, and used a $10 bonus bet for a place with Crownbet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 17, 2016 Report Share Posted September 17, 2016 6 hours ago, hedaik said: Yep Ended up putting on a tenner @ $17 with Ladbrokes oddboost, and used a $10 bonus bet for a place with Crownbet. Not too different to me and bt50 since we'll get a small deduction for the 5 being scratched (assuming you bet after that, I have no idea when it was scratched) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 $75 ew. Let's go baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 4 hours ago, Jimmy said: $75 ew. Let's go baby. We're all gonna get rolled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 22 minutes ago, Tesla said: We're all gonna get rolled. Im more concerned about not being able to show my face around the pub anymore rather than the loss of money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, hedaik said: Im more concerned about not being able to show my face around the pub anymore rather than the loss of money Lol my bet isn't an unusual size for myself and I honestly won't be bothered if it loses. FWIW I had another tip from someone on Kalgoorlie harness last night, put 200 on 19$ odds win only, and it ran second (mid tote place was like 7$). So if that didn't bother me, this isn't going to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 If i lose someone is getting shived. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 Put another 20 ew on tote and 10 ew on betfair sp, both those look to have paid a lot better for place than the fixed odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 53 minutes ago, Jimmy said: If i lose someone is getting shived. Someone getting a free pint now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 $200 profit. Not quite $2k but cheers @hedaik brah. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 (edited) Paid $6.87 after commision betfair sp place. Paid $5.50 mid tote place Paid 4.6 after deductions on the fixed odds place All up $400 profit, meh. Cheers for the tip though heda1k, pls keep us updated. Blackbooking the two that beat him. Edited September 18, 2016 by Tesla 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, hedaik said: Someone getting a free pint now Was only ever gonna shiv @KD. tbf. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 (edited) APOLOBOOM in the next has a connection to the kart em around boy form line if anyone is interested in a bet for lols that somewhat makes sense EDIT: 2nd. Edited September 18, 2016 by Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedaik Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 Owner said that the horse pulled up well, jockey said they got closed in on the fence so couldn't finish as strong as it could have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartinHobart Posted September 18, 2016 Report Share Posted September 18, 2016 This horse always runs well when I forget to back it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted September 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Forgot to remind myself take the $4 for a place... I am really finding my current losing streak on the punt annoying. Doesn't help when I tend to just beat on the Group One's and they are so predictable in Sydney in regards to the Winner ATM and that there is no place value in fields under seven horses that I have to bet on other races where I know a lot less about the horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla Posted September 19, 2016 Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 Australian racing is fucked TBH, I've pretty much stopped betting on it again. UK/IRE racing is way easier, and that's not just my opinion but there is a lot of evidence to support it, one of the most obvious ones is that in the UK there are a bunch of media tipsters that actually make significant profitable returns. It's impossible to follow them since the prices get smashed immediately, but the point is that at least you can see there are a number of people making significant returns. There is no one in the Australian media that is putting up profitable tips on the other hand, so if these guys whose job is to follow racing and comment on it and they cant even turn a profit how many punters out there are there that are making money? That's just one small thing, could give a few more. I'm pretty much convinced the reason for it has nothing to do with the races itself, but rather the market. The most common product in Australia is best tote, which is extremely difficult to make money on IMO because even though it's low percentage it's still a starting price so the odds are pretty efficient/accurate. On the other hand in the UK the most common product is 'best odds guarantee' which means you get either the fixed odds you have taken or the SP if it's higher. Which means you're never going to be worse off than the SP and can often be better. Add to that that most bookmakers in the UK actually set their own prices, so you have a low percentage across the bookmakers when betting early in the day, while in Australia there are only a few bookmakers that set their own prices while the rest just copy the others, the fixed odds market is quite poor. To put it another way, just clicked on a few random UK races on oddschecker, and the best book across bookmakers is generally under 120% on shitty Monday races, it's even lower on bigger races, add to that any horse that drifts you get the SP, it ends up being a pretty low percentage while you'd also be betting early when the market is less efficient (and therefore you can more easily find value runners). Compared to Australian racing where your two options are bet in a high percentage market with fixed odds but with a chance of finding some value runners, which I'm sure is what any legit people (not dodgy cunts and who dont have inside information) who make money do, or bet in a low percentage market where the odds are fairly accurate and therefore it's very hard to find any value. If the totes die one day it will actually be a very good thing for punters IMO, because then I assume we'd have a similar market to what happens in the UK. Anyway, just my current thinking. Honestly I feel like I am close to doing what I've basically said is very hard, making money on best tote, with my late betting system, but it's taking too much time without conclusive results so I've given up on it before I give back too much money and waste too much time, maybe will look at it again at some other point, just not worth the effort currently. Takes a fuckload less effort to make a fairly consistent return on UK racing, only problem is I'm on my 4th bet365 account and I'm probably done after this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cadete Posted September 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2016 No offence if its profitable for you then its profitable... I cant knock that. But if I started betting on English Races held at 4am in the morning EST I would probably decide I needed to make a reappraisal of my lifestyle mind you if I got to that point my Housemate would probably make it for me.... I only bet because I enjoy following and attending the sport as much as enjoy it when I actually win a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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