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cadete
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On 30/03/2016 at 11:19 AM, cadete said:

If he goes there I think he has a very strong chance of winning, Australians have been dominating Sprinting for a fair while now... probably because nobody can be fucked anymore with being patient and training Stayers properly down here like they did in the late 90's.

Well he already beat as good a field as he will come up against. I'd take that $13 ante post if it was with a bookmaker I could bet with (it's a UK bookmaker and Australians can't make accounts any more with UK bookmakers) even though there are no guarantees he will run, will probably be like $4 or $5 when the race comes around if he does run. Might have a look to see what he is paying for the Hong Kong race that's meant to be next for him. I don't even care what the field is, it won't be better than what he beat, so as long as the odds are decent I'm in.

 

6 hours ago, cadete said:

The Bookies can not be looking forward to tomorrow... the Australian Derby seems a forgone conclusion, the T.J Smith a two horse race and the one race that they can traditionally hope for an upset in due to being a Handicap in the Doncaster also has an odds on favourite. 

If all of the above happens they will be fucked... in fact Winx winning alone could probably see the day written off.

Looks like a day for trying to get some value out of Place betting for me.

Maybe it will be a bad day for the bookmakers but in the long run surely these short priced bets are the most profitable for them?

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28 minutes ago, Tesla said:

Well he already beat as good a field as he will come up against. I'd take that $13 ante post if it was with a bookmaker I could bet with (it's a UK bookmaker and Australians can't make accounts any more with UK bookmakers) even though there are no guarantees he will run, will probably be like $4 or $5 when the race comes around if he does run. Might have a look to see what he is paying for the Hong Kong race that's meant to be next for him. I don't even care what the field is, it won't be better than what he beat, so as long as the odds are decent I'm in.

 

Maybe it will be a bad day for the bookmakers but in the long run surely these short priced bets are the most profitable for them? Absolutely zero value, doubt a $2 horse even wins 1/3 of the time on average, especially in big races.

HK's sprinters are better than those in the UK because the industry is pretty reliant on Australia, they have the same age rules and only so many horses can be stabled over there so they are reliant on our Speed Obsessed Breeders... obviously this is an International Race so that is less of a factor but still if I had a Proven Group One Sprinter from Australia I would be more confident winning in the UK than in HK.

However a thing in Buffering's favour is that he has won more than once at G1 level at MV which is a big plus because the HK track is similar with its tight bends.

In England they are into Steeples as much as Flat Distance Racing and most of the money is in Staying Races, they also let their horses develop over longer periods of time and race them more lightly hence why the UK Sprint Races in the Australian Scheme of things are really is not worth that much (When you factor in the travel costs) and the act of taking a horse going over there is more for prestige/breeding reasons than money.

Odds on favourites are basically only ever in Set Weight Races for Juveniles to show horses breeding abilities or more to the point WFA races (Which basically only exist so PPL can see the Champions like Winx and Black Caviar win as they dont have to carry a Handicap). Your assessment about these races with a Odds On Favourites being profitable for Bookmakers is 100% incorrect... I would thought you have known or at least read about this now.

PPL see the short prices but they know that they will win and they want to back their favourite horse anyway. When Black Caviar was paying $1.05 in Major G1 races watched by the whole country so therefore with tons of PPL betting the Prize Pool still indicated they only wanted to bet on her even though the return was pointless... but then again it was not pointless because you could have put your mortgage on her each time and only ever made a profit.,

Bookmakers tackle such races by instantly assuming they are forgone conclusion and try their hardest to oflay the money on to their counterparts... if Winx does get done on Saturday then they will be cheering and high fiving each other in the Ring at Randwick like their own horse just won the $3 million dollar race. If she does win they will still probably only come off even if both the Derby and the T.J Smith are complete boil overs as well. 

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1 hour ago, cadete said:

HK's sprinters are better than those in the UK because the industry is pretty reliant on Australia, they have the same age rules and only so many horses can be stabled over there so they are reliant on our Speed Obsessed Breeders... obviously this is an International Race so that is less of a factor but still if I had a Proven Group One Sprinter from Australia I would be more confident winning in the UK than in HK.

However a thing in Buffering's favour is that he has won more than once at G1 level at MV which is a big plus because the HK track is similar with its tight bends.

In England they are into Steeples as much as Flat Distance Racing and most of the money is in Staying Races, they also let their horses develop over longer periods of time and race them more lightly hence why the UK Sprint Races in the Australian Scheme of things are really is not worth that much (When you factor in the travel costs) and the act of taking a horse going over there is more for prestige/breeding reasons than money.

Odds on favourites are basically only ever in Set Weight Races for Juveniles to show horses breeding abilities or more to the point WFA races (Which basically only exist so PPL can see the Champions like Winx and Black Caviar win as they dont have to carry a Handicap). Your assessment about these races with a Odds On Favourites being profitable for Bookmakers is 100% incorrect... I would thought you have known or at least read about this now.

PPL see the short prices but they know that they will win and they want to back their favourite horse anyway. When Black Caviar was paying $1.05 in Major G1 races watched by the whole country so therefore with tons of PPL betting the Prize Pool still indicated they only wanted to bet on her even though the return was pointless... but then again it was not pointless because you could have put your mortgage on her each time and only ever made a profit.,

Bookmakers tackle such races by instantly assuming they are forgone conclusion and try their hardest to oflay the money on to their counterparts... if Winx does get done on Saturday then they will be cheering and high fiving each other in the Ring at Randwick like their own horse just won the $3 million dollar race. If she does win they will still probably only come off even if both the Derby and the T.J Smith are complete boil overs as well. 

Regarding Buffering, the race he won already had the best sprinter from the UK and 2nd best from HK and he beat them both. It also had a horse that had great form in the lead up races in Dubai, and being acclimatised to the conditions is pretty important in Dubai (therefore this horse was the favourite and ended up running 2nd). It was an extremely strong field, the only problem is the best sprinter from HK wasn't there and that will be the issue. I still would be happy to take the $8 (only checked bet365, might be better available) available for Buffering in HK, I don't think the other horse is that much better to be $2.50 vs $8 for Buffering. Especially since Peniaphobia is $4, which is the HK runner he beat (finished 3rd). I'll wait until it's NRNB, but I expect Buffering might shorten significantly at that stage, we'll see.

As for odds on favourites, I'm still not convinced. I'll have a look at some point over the next few days, I have a database of tote prices and betfair SP for all Australian races over a number of years, I'll see how much one would have won/lost betting on short priced favourites in WFA races. I'm sure it will be a loss, and probably a bigger loss than backing random runners (I think best tote ends up being like a 110% market, so if more than 10% has been lost than you've lost more backing short priced favourites than backing random runners).

Your point about people wanting to back their favourite horse regardless of odds I agree with. But that's exactly why I believe it's a bad bet and highly profitable for bookmakers. Anyway, I'll check the figures when I have a chance and see, I'm quite interested now to know the result.

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Actually I've gone ahead and put a small each way bet on Buffering already for the charimans sprint, I couldn't resist those odds since it will be a profit even if he placed. hopefully he does run and shortens a bit so I didn't take the extra risk for nothing. Will probably put a bit more on at a later date.

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23 hours ago, Tesla said:

Regarding Buffering, the race he won already had the best sprinter from the UK and 2nd best from HK and he beat them both. It also had a horse that had great form in the lead up races in Dubai, and being acclimatised to the conditions is pretty important in Dubai (therefore this horse was the favourite and ended up running 2nd). It was an extremely strong field, the only problem is the best sprinter from HK wasn't there and that will be the issue. I still would be happy to take the $8 (only checked bet365, might be better available) available for Buffering in HK, I don't think the other horse is that much better to be $2.50 vs $8 for Buffering. Especially since Peniaphobia is $4, which is the HK runner he beat (finished 3rd). I'll wait until it's NRNB, but I expect Buffering might shorten significantly at that stage, we'll see.

As for odds on favourites, I'm still not convinced. I'll have a look at some point over the next few days, I have a database of tote prices and betfair SP for all Australian races over a number of years, I'll see how much one would have won/lost betting on short priced favourites in WFA races. I'm sure it will be a loss, and probably a bigger loss than backing random runners (I think best tote ends up being like a 110% market, so if more than 10% has been lost than you've lost more backing short priced favourites than backing random runners).

Your point about people wanting to back their favourite horse regardless of odds I agree with. But that's exactly why I believe it's a bad bet and highly profitable for bookmakers. Anyway, I'll check the figures when I have a chance and see, I'm quite interested now to know the result.

LOL - You dont need to do the figures, you are doubting the first bloody rule of Bookmaking since the dawn of time... the Bookmakers right now are just saying how bad Tarzino will be for them as we speak on TV.

 

Edited by cadete
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21 minutes ago, cadete said:

LOL - You dont need to do the figures, you are doubting the first bloody rule of Bookmaking since the dawn of time... the Bookmakers right now are just saying how bad Tarzino will be for them as we speak on TV.

 

Do you not realise how retarded the idea that the bookmakers are going to give odds that costs them money (if the race was repeated 100 times) on a favourite in a group 1 WFA race is?

They're not in the business of giving away free money.

yes, it will most likely be bad for them because the horse that is highly likely to win has $2352735024897238904 bet on it, but the odds are so low they don't even need to get rolled that often for the bookmakers to make a lot of money..

And my posting has nothing to do with Tarzino not winning, it makes no difference what happens in one race or on one day, but over 100 races like this there is no way the bookies aren't on top.

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53 minutes ago, Tesla said:

Do you not realise how retarded the idea that the bookmakers are going to give odds that costs them money (if the race was repeated 100 times) on a favourite in a group 1 WFA race is?

They're not in the business of giving away free money.

yes, it will most likely be bad for them because the horse that is highly likely to win has $2352735024897238904 bet on it, but the odds are so low they don't even need to get rolled that often for the bookmakers to make a lot of money..

And my posting has nothing to do with Tarzino not winning, it makes no difference what happens in one race or on one day, but over 100 races like this there is no way the bookies aren't on top.

If this race was repeated a 100 times... it would be won by the favourite at least 30 of those 100 times as that has remained the same percentage (30%) of Favourites winning horse races in Australia (And most other places) basically since the start of Horse Racing. This is the first stat you will ever read in a book about Horse Racing Punting.

However the race was a Derby which has an even higher percentage of Favourites winning it as its set weights and even good three old sprinters like Mahogany won Derbies on pure talent alone ... so whether it be 30, 35, 40 the bookies stand to lose overall on these races because PPL bet so much on these horses.

And FFS have you never heard of a Bookie going broke? That is like half of them.

If you are so keen to prove me wrong... why dont you go to a course and ask a Bookmaker... I would love to see their fucken face when you put forward your theory. (In fact do as the pay out on an odds on WFA Favourite.)

NOTE: And no you cant borrow a Membership Pass of me.

 

Edited by cadete
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At $1.50 it would have to win 70% of the time...

And bookmakers do go bankrupt, but in modern times that would most likely be a result of taking on too much risk than anything else. Either way, you'd have to be really fucking bad at being a bookmaker if it's huge favourite in a group 1 WFA race that send you bankrupt.

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1 hour ago, hedaik said:

Kartemaround Boy running in Geelong at 3.30 today. Paying $9 (I got $10 with Ladbrokes oddboost)

Trainer is worried about 2 horses, but feels confident about a place. 

Best tote will probably be better, fixed odds suck on Australian racing. Though I did take the $9 fixed but with bet365 since they pay the SP if it drifts.

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5 minutes ago, Tesla said:

I didn't get a chance to watch the race, just a case of nothing left to hide from the handicapper / step up in class too much?

I only listened on the radio, was 3rd leading into the final straight then didnt hear its name called until the end to say it came last.  Will get the low down on Thurs. 

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27 minutes ago, Begbie said:

Thought he was about to pull away just before he slipped to back. 

Just watched the replay and I agree, looked to be in a great position and about to take off down the inside, but just stayed on the same pace for whatever reason. 

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TBH he did not look that great from after 200 metres.... the caller said all the winners had been in the first three.

He jumped well and I assumed he wanted the lead, he looked and had to settle at third but let another horse creep up on his outside before the bend which had me really worried and when it made him look unsettled at fourth on the rail at the bend... things were confirmed.

I hoped in vain maybe the inside of track would open for him but he just fell back a few lengths into the straight to last.

He probably needs a spell but the look of his racing record also his stubborn nature means he needs to dictate things as the others unsettle him, also he probably was simply not up to todays class... but he can def still be a good country Sunday horse on his day if he has them caught at the bend.

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  • 3 weeks later...

As expected betting antepost on Buffering hasnt gotten me anywhere as it's pretty much the same odds available today, seems to rarely pay off (though when it does it usually pays off good)

Though I probably would have forgotten this was happening if I didn't have the constant reminder sitting in my betslip. I actually think Chautauqua will win but given Buffering is paying more to place than Chautauqua  is paying to win seems to me like betting Buffering each way is the better bet.

This Lucky Bubbles horse that has shortened and become second favourite has made a lot of good runners look like interesting each way chances TBH (Peniaphobia $23, Aerovelocity $9) but I'm happy with my small each way bet on Buffering. Chautauqua will probably smash them all anyway.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Anyone betting on the Doomben 10,000?

I reckon Fell Swoop for Gate One is going to be in the finish, since the renovations at Eagle Farm that Gate had produced so many winners week after week and I think the extra fifty metres will assist him as well.

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2 hours ago, cadete said:

Anyone betting on the Doomben 10,000?

I reckon Fell Swoop for Gate One is going to be in the finish, since the renovations at Eagle Farm that Gate had produced so many winners week after week and I think the extra fifty metres will assist him as well.

Second best value IMO at $6 currently, with Hooked at $21 the best value. Would rather bet Fell Swoop though if there is some cash back for 2nd/3rd promo, will look tomorrow.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Love the week long festivals they have in the UK, Cheltenham was great hopefully the same from Ascot this week.

Got a few ante post bets to be settled this week which is a pretty good feeling knowing you aren't going to be down any cash right now if you lose but potential could win some money too. Like you've already put the hard yards in and can now just relax, watch, and hopefully win a few $$$.

Wonder if the Australian bookies will give some promotions on Ascot, sportsbet have done so in previous years, would be alright for getting a few savers onside.

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7 hours ago, Tesla said:

Love the week long festivals they have in the UK, Cheltenham was great hopefully the same from Ascot this week.

Got a few ante post bets to be settled this week which is a pretty good feeling knowing you aren't going to be down any cash right now if you lose but potential could win some money too. Like you've already put the hard yards in and can now just relax, watch, and hopefully win a few $$$.

Wonder if the Australian bookies will give some promotions on Ascot, sportsbet have done so in previous years, would be alright for getting a few savers onside.

Just checking but you dont actually watch these races do you?

Because I basically never bet on any race that I cannot actually watch... TBH the main thing I have enjoyed out of Horse Racing since I was ten was the actual watching of the race. If I could not watch horse races that I bet on then I would probably not even gamble at all.

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4 hours ago, cadete said:

Just checking but you dont actually watch these races do you?

Because I basically never bet on any race that I cannot actually watch... TBH the main thing I have enjoyed out of Horse Racing since I was ten was the actual watching of the race. If I could not watch horse races that I bet on then I would probably not even gamble at all.

It depends really, the time difference isn't too bad currently so the racing can start around 1030pm some nights. Most the races I bet on are probably around 12am-130am and generally I am up until about then. If it's 3am or 4am then it's unlikely I would watch it, but my sleeping pattern is currently fucked cause of Euros anyway so currently I probably would.

So really it just depends if I'm awake or not, I generally wouldn't stay up just to watch a race, unless it's only like another 10-15 minutes away when I'm about to go to bed.

Tonight for example, the races I'm interested in is the Coventry at 12:05am, King's Stand at 12:40am, and Ascot Stakes at 2am. So the first two I'll watch and the 3rd depends on if I'm still up. Anyway I'm more interested in the first two as they're sprints so they'll be a bit more entertaining.

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I dont really get how you see Sprints as more entertaining than Middle Distance or Staying Races... the horses that win these races are usually almost only those who lead or sit on the pace unless they are Champions (Or get really really luck with the race run way too fast) whilst races over longer distances suit all racing styles.

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1 minute ago, cadete said:

I dont really get how you see Sprints as more entertaining than Middle Distance or Staying Races... the horses that win these races are usually almost only those who lead or sit on the pace unless they are Champions (Or get really really luck with the race run way too fast) whilst races over longer distances suit all racing styles.

That's true for Australian racing but it's kind of backwards in the UK, even in the long races horses really need to be close to the pace to have a chance. While sprints look little like sprints in Australia as you often have front runners fading away mainly because they're run faster but I also think a more minor factor is the way the ground is usually means it's equivalent to about a furlong longer race in Australia.

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1 minute ago, Tesla said:

That's true for Australian racing but it's kind of backwards in the UK, even in the long races horses really need to be close to the pace to have a chance. While sprints look little like sprints in Australia as you often have front runners fading away mainly because they're run faster but I also think a more minor factor is the way the ground is usually means it's equivalent to about a furlong longer race in Australia.

No, I get your point...

The UK Stayers tend to stay at Medium Pace for most of the race (Of course they do increase in pace at the bend still) as compared to the traditional Australian method of the plodding around until the last 800 then go hell for leather like we use to see in the Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup fifteen years ago. 

They have a lot more Champion Stayers who have been Frontrunners than we have.

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Fwiw I actually consider the time of the races a plus and the primary reason why I am more interested in UK racing than Australian racing these days. When I was on a dreamer run on Australian racing a few months back and winning constantly at high odds it was great, until the inevitable bad run comes and I gave a lot of it back and it just ends up feeling like a big waste of time. So if I'm going  to waste my time I'd rather waste it at night when I'm not going to do anything productive rather than in the day when I would. Even on the weekend, I'm more often that not doing something in the day while I'm usually not at 1am these days.

From the perspective of winning money it's not ideal to bet on international racing from Australia since its only worth doing at one bookmaker which is bet365, and if you're limited to one bookmaker you obviously can't always get the best odds. 

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33 minutes ago, Tesla said:

Fwiw I actually consider the time of the races a plus and the primary reason why I am more interested in UK racing than Australian racing these days. When I was on a dreamer run on Australian racing a few months back and winning constantly at high odds it was great, until the inevitable bad run comes and I gave a lot of it back and it just ends up feeling like a big waste of time. So if I'm going  to waste my time I'd rather waste it at night when I'm not going to do anything productive rather than in the day when I would. Even on the weekend, I'm more often that not doing something in the day while I'm usually not at 1am these days.

From the perspective of winning money it's not ideal to bet on international racing from Australia since its only worth doing at one bookmaker which is bet365, and if you're limited to one bookmaker you obviously can't always get the best odds. 

Night racing will become more common in Australia, its def on the bigger Turf Clubs agendas to do so... as the bigger dividends are there for them.

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28 minutes ago, cadete said:

Night racing will become more common in Australia, its def on the bigger Turf Clubs agendas to do so... as the bigger dividends are there for them.

That would be good, it would probably be the nail in the coffin for harness racing though since what little interest exists in that sport will disappear if it's up against gallops in it's time slot. Not that it matters, it has no future anyway since you can't have even a semi-serious bet on it given the bookmakers just give you mid tote at best, it's why I got over it some time ago.

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5 minutes ago, Tesla said:

That would be good, it would probably be the nail in the coffin for harness racing though since what little interest exists in that sport will disappear if it's up against gallops in it's time slot. Not that it matters, it has no future anyway since you can't have even a semi-serious bet on it given the bookmakers just give you mid tote at best, it's why I got over it some time ago.

It has no future because the Prize Money is so poor for PPL to maintain the general upkeep and transporting of a horse which is why Dog Racing became so prominent in the past ten years... until it shot itself in the foot.

Edited by cadete
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I dare say they'll be a new favourite for the Melbourne Cup in the morning. Wouldn't surprise me if one of the smaller corporates has fucked up and left their Melbourne Cup market open over night despite so many potential runners running in the Gold cup, too tired to check though. 

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8 hours ago, Tesla said:

I dare say they'll be a new favourite for the Melbourne Cup in the morning. Wouldn't surprise me if one of the smaller corporates has fucked up and left their Melbourne Cup market open over night despite so many potential runners running in the Gold cup, too tired to check though. 

The best G1 States over there are not necessarily Cup horses as all G1's over there are WFA.

So they European tend to like to send over lightly races stayers who won't be given huge handicaps... Rather than there established stars.

The reason they send so many horses over in the first place is because they think having a G1 worth so much money as a HCP is laughable.

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  • 2 months later...

Given the forums favourite horse (thanks to hedaik), and also my observations of some other higher odds winners, I do wonder if it might be profitable in the long run to back horses with gear changes.

Of course for every winner there is a bunch of losers, but there might be something there especially if you only back the higher odds (how high I dont know, maybe $20+) runners that have undergone gear changes (ideally there would be a high enough profit margin that you could back them each way to help with cash flow, since each way tends to be less profitable than win only but you'd happily give some of the profit away if it meant you don't have to have 30 losers in a row before a big winner).

Might try run the numbers on it if I can get some historical data on gear changes (should be okay as a few sites seem to keep their form cards up indefinitely and I'm already building up a db of best tote and betfair prices).

I reckon if there is something there it would be for a specific gear change and maybe for a specific class of race (eg maidans, or handicaps) and/or maybe for a specific starting odds (eg runners higher than $20 or w/e).

Thoughts on whether there might be something there?

 

Edited by Tesla
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On another note, sportsbet take some really late bets on australian racing, I'm sure I've missed the jump twice by a second and they've taken the bet, one fixed and one best tote, we'll see if they try be dodgy if one wins after being put on so late (i've heard this happens at some dodgy bookmakers but sportsbet should be okay I hope).

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4 hours ago, Tesla said:

Given the forums favourite horse (thanks to hedaik), and also my observations of some other higher odds winners, I do wonder if it might be profitable in the long run to back horses with gear changes.

Of course for every winner there is a bunch of losers, but there might be something there especially if you only back the higher odds (how high I dont know, maybe $20+) runners that have undergone gear changes (ideally there would be a high enough profit margin that you could back them each way to help with cash flow, since each way tends to be less profitable than win only but you'd happily give some of the profit away if it meant you don't have to have 30 losers in a row before a big winner).

Might try run the numbers on it if I can get some historical data on gear changes (should be okay as a few sites seem to keep their form cards up indefinitely and I'm already building up a db of best tote and betfair prices).

I reckon if there is something there it would be for a specific gear change and maybe for a specific class of race (eg maidans, or handicaps) and/or maybe for a specific starting odds (eg runners higher than $20 or w/e).

Thoughts on whether there might be something there?

 

If you want to run numbers one you should explore is how far the trainer has had to take the horse to get to the track... apparently thats a lesser known one that is more helpful than PPL would think.

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11 minutes ago, cadete said:

If you want to run numbers one you should explore is how far the trainer has had to take the horse to get to the track... apparently thats a lesser known one that is more helpful than PPL would think.

Yeah that sounds good and makes a lot of sense, would be more work though I imagine but there definitely could be something there.

Funnily I saw a similar one about jockeys mentioned on punters.com.au the other day (I rarely read their forum as it seems to be full of retards and degenerates but occasionally there is something interesting), but that maybe only applies to the UK. It was basically that there was a jockey racing one race at one track and then travelling like 200km to race another horse elsewhere the same day, not sure how it worked out. Could only imagine something like that happening maybe in NSW in Australia.

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