The Coronavirus Thread (We nearly didn't see City in the 2021 Grand Final)

[jw1739]

A good book to read at this point in the coronavirus saga is "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute, a post-apocalyptic novel written in 1957 and set in and around Melbourne.

[Shahanga]

39 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

A good book to read at this point in the coronavirus saga is "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute, a post-apocalyptic novel written in 1957 and set in and around Melbourne.

Ah yes. 
Ava Gardner (attributed)

“On the Beach is a story about the end of the world and Melbourne sure is the right place to make it”

If you want another depressing movie, try Virus.

Something called “Italian Flu” cuts loose. Cheer you up no end.

hide the razor blades first.

[jw1739]

1 hour ago, Shahanga said:

Ah yes. 
Ava Gardner (attributed)

“On the Beach is a story about the end of the world and Melbourne sure is the right place to make it”

If you want another depressing movie, try Virus.

Something called “Italian Flu” cuts loose. Cheer you up no end.

hide the razor blades first.

Also Nana Mouskouri who said "I went to Adelaide once...but it was closed."

[playmaker]

Let's look at the real numbers

AGAIN.

MSM lies in plain sight.

Get on with your lives normally people.

This Chinese flu is a con.

 

[jw1739]

I just read that half the new infections in Australia are still people getting off planes at our airports.

For a government that has crapped on as long as I can remember about "border protection", when the crunch comes they can't or won't actually do it.

Just shut down all international arrivals at our airports for fuck's sake. Now. All. Everyone. I don't care who the fuck they are. Do it. It's the only way that we have a chance to contain the spread of infection.

[Shahanga]

Well now that the “softening up” is over, a legitimate option surely is to close the borders and confine everyone to their houses for 4 weeks.

After that release the house confinement but keep the borders closed for as long as necessary.

[NewConvert]

1 hour ago, Shahanga said:

Well now that the “softening up” is over, a legitimate option surely is to close the borders and confine everyone to their houses for 4 weeks.

After that release the house confinement but keep the borders closed for as long as necessary.

walking through the docklands promenade earlier in the week it seems the small venues are suffering death by a thousand cuts. Better be over and done with and just tell most people to stay at home for four weeks with only essential services out and about. Being out the army and let them do home deliveries and assist those that need assistance.

[jw1739]

And now we have four cruise ships given "special permission" to dock in Australia, with 2,600 passengers allowed ashore from one despite five people on board testing positive to the virus.

We're not serious, are we? Fucking idiots.

[Shahanga]

So to change tack slightly, we’ll know in a couple of days if this partial shutdown is working.

Personally I doubt it. Too many fuckwits ignoring it.

[Jovan]

3 hours ago, Shahanga said:

So to change tack slightly, we’ll know in a couple of days if this partial shutdown is working.

Personally I doubt it. Too many fuckwits ignoring it.

100%

You can't do partial.

Full lockdown now.

[NewConvert]

3 hours ago, Shahanga said:

So to change tack slightly, we’ll know in a couple of days if this partial shutdown is working.

Personally I doubt it. Too many fuckwits ignoring it.

ell it worked for Bondi Beach! The fear that ScoMo put into people...

[HeartFc]

Australian's are fucking selfish. We all respect each other to certain degree due to the safe comfortable lives we live but once we have to make even a small sacrifice, we say fuck that, I'm doing what ever I want. We all think we're so special here. 

 

[Jovan]

1 hour ago, HeartFc said:

Australian's are fucking selfish. We all respect each other to certain degree due to the safe comfortable lives we live but once we have to make even a small sacrifice, we say fuck that, I'm doing what ever I want. We all think we're so special here. 

 

TBF the majority are doing the right thing, I spend alot of time in the CBD and it's very different layely but there is still a large minority that just don't get it. Most are young pre 30, and think they can ignore whats going on. Problem is though the virus spreads so quickly that within a few days 1000s are infected and unaware and they then also spread it.

We need a total lockdown now, just like NY and California, only essential services should remain. 

It's basically like having a paddock full of sheep and leaving the gate slightly open, eventually all the sheep (us) will get out.

[HeartFc]

2 minutes ago, Jovan said:

TBF the majority are doing the right thing, I spend alot of time in the CBD and it's very different layely but there is still a large minority that just don't get it. Most are young pre 30, and think they can ignore whats going on. Problem is though the virus spreads so quickly that within a few days 1000s are infected and unaware and they then also spread it.

We need a total lockdown now, just like NY and California, only essential services should remain. 

It's basically like having a paddock full of sheep and leaving the gate slightly open, eventually all the sheep (us) will get out.

Ye I usually spend a couple days a week in the CBD in Brisbane and its completely dead. However, its dead coz all the corporates are working at home. On the other hand, I drive through the burbs, cafes and restaurants are packed. I appreciate those who are supporting small business but theres no escaping this. I'm a small business owner and I'm slowly dying, every week my sales are going down and at the end of the day I'd rather just lock down now, do some business restructuring and come out of this healthy and ready to re-build. I might even have to find a casual job stacking shelves coz late last year I turned down an 80k + job, invested 25k in my business and I just signed a new lease. Tough times but I'm not the only one.

 

[Jovan]

8 hours ago, HeartFc said:

Ye I usually spend a couple days a week in the CBD in Brisbane and its completely dead. However, its dead coz all the corporates are working at home. On the other hand, I drive through the burbs, cafes and restaurants are packed. I appreciate those who are supporting small business but theres no escaping this. I'm a small business owner and I'm slowly dying, every week my sales are going down and at the end of the day I'd rather just lock down now, do some business restructuring and come out of this healthy and ready to re-build. I might even have to find a casual job stacking shelves coz late last year I turned down an 80k + job, invested 25k in my business and I just signed a new lease. Tough times but I'm not the only one.

 

Man I feel for you, there is no quick fix and millions are going to be fucked up.

[Nate]

19 hours ago, Shahanga said:

So to change tack slightly, we’ll know in a couple of days if this partial shutdown is working.

Personally I doubt it. Too many fuckwits ignoring it.

I work at Bunnings and all week we've been experiencing the Christmas rush-level of people and sales (honestly, perhaps even more) so there's no fucking way it's working.

[HeartFc]

3 hours ago, Nate said:

I work at Bunnings and all week we've been experiencing the Christmas rush-level of people and sales (honestly, perhaps even more) so there's no fucking way it's working.

Out of interest, besides masks, what are people buying at Bunnings? Anything in particular?

[Nate]

Just now, HeartFc said:

Out of interest, besides masks, what are people buying at Bunnings? Anything in particular?

Seeds, seedlings and other garden-related things, isopropyl alcohol, turps and since people are apparently gonna get really sick of their walls - paint. 

[Harrison]

Looks like it’s done for the foreseeable future. Serious stuff. 

[HeartFc]

58 minutes ago, Harrison said:

Looks like it’s done for the foreseeable future. Serious stuff. 

Yep. AFL is about to be wrapped up so A-league will follow suit. 

[kingofhearts]

If the a-league shuts down it'll just prove the common notion that they are Sydney centric. Shutting down the league just because a Melbourne team is doing well. Shame on you

[haz]

Stay safe everyone (and please use common sense!), this is going to get very ugly.

If you have any elderly parents and/or grandparents make sure to call them every 1-2 days to keep them occupied.

[HeartFc]

I can't believe that we're still doing this half arsed. If you understand how bad the data below is you know how fucked we are about to get. This is going to effect the health of you a friend or family member directly within 2 months. Its already mutated in Europe, no doubt about it. 

Australia's Growth Rate:

March 15: 300 cases.

(1 week)

March 22: 1600 cases. (current)

 

Projected:

(1week)

March 30: 9000 Cases 

(1 week)

April 6: 50,000 Cases 

(1 week) 

April 13: 275,000 cases (ICU full and no more ventilators)

Now consider actual cases vs confirmed cases is currently sitting at about an 8.5x factor. 

Take this really fucking seriously everyone. 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by HeartFc

[haz]

1 hour ago, HeartFc said:

I can't believe that we're still doing this half arsed. If you understand how bad the data below is you know how fucked we are about to get. This is going to effect the health of you a friend or family member directly within 2 months. Its already mutated in Europe, no doubt about it. 

Australia's Growth Rate:

March 15: 300 cases.

(1 week)

March 22: 1600 cases. (current)

 

Projected:

(1week)

March 30: 9000 Cases 

(1 week)

April 6: 50,000 Cases 

(1 week) 

April 13: 275,000 cases (ICU full and no more ventilators)

Now consider actual cases vs confirmed cases is currently sitting at about an 8.5x factor. 

Take this really fucking seriously everyone.

I read that we'll be at medical centre capacity around 35,000 - 45,000 cases (unless that's 'hospitalised' cases only).

Also that projection is the worst case exponential growth, it doesn't account for the influence of isolation or production of ventilators within that time. In other words, that would be the expected growth if everyone went about their daily life starting from two weeks ago without changing anything for the next month.

In my personal (uneducated) opinion I think we won't see more than 150,000 active confirmed (mild-severe) cases at any one time.

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by haz

[Shahanga]

I’ve done my own modelling based on the current infection rate.

Scary to say the least. 

[HeartFc]

2 hours ago, haz said:

I read that we'll be at medical centre capacity around 35,000 - 45,000 cases (unless that's 'hospitalised' cases only).

Also that projection is the worst case exponential growth, it doesn't account for the influence of isolation or production of ventilators within that time. In other words, that would be the expected growth if everyone went about their daily life starting from two weeks ago without changing anything for the next month.

In my personal (uneducated) opinion I think we won't see more than 150,000 active confirmed (mild-severe) cases at any one time.

 

Correct. I projected our worst case numbers but remember those numbers are also about 25% lower than the actual Italian and Spanish growth rates. Shows you how much trouble those to nations are in right now and gives you an indication of what doing nothing means. 

 

[haz]

26 minutes ago, HeartFc said:

Correct. I projected our worst case numbers but remember those numbers are also about 25% lower than the actual Italian and Spanish growth rates. Shows you how much trouble those to nations are in right now and gives you an indication of what doing nothing means. 

 

Yea I know, I made a couple friends whilst in Germany who have elderly families in Italy so it's very tough on them.

Luckily, Australia does have some pros over Italy and Spain, mainly being an island but also different culture/lifestyles.

Looking at the LogScale graph of infections in Italy, the number of cases does seem to slowly flatten out. Hopefully that's a sign of the impact isolation has.

Edited March 23, 2020 by haz

[Harrison]

League postponed. 

https://www.a-league.com.au/news/ffa-postpone-remaining-matches-hyundai-a-league-season-covid-19

[jw1739]

Governments are going to have to find a way out of this mess. Everyone is going to hurt badly unless we can get this thing under control, and we are going to have to work together and help others less fortunate than ourselves as we go forward. As a self-funded retiree in one month I've lost one quarter of my superannuation built up over 25 years, and I daren't look at my investments outside my SMSF. Thank God I own my own house and don't have any debt. I can't begin to think how someone who has just lost their job and has debt and no way of paying it off must feel or was already scraping to put their child or children through school.

We've got to build a more caring and sharing society from here on in.

[jw1739]

Interesting. We've carried out 148.000 tests and 1,823 positives. 1.23% infection rate.

[HeartFc]

@playmaker Ok I've got an angle for you. This is a Chinese bio-weapon in response to losing the trade war against Trump. The Chinese economy was on the brink of collapse, American economy some what recovering, CCP did not what that on their record. Wuhan of course being the perfect place due to the "hidden in plain sight" of their top virology lab. Once  exposed as a man made virus they can say it "escaped" their "research site" in Wuhan by "mistake", oops. It was spread world wide and quickly controlled locally due to their cultural expectance of draconian government control. That and the obvious advantage of having a vaccine. This type of crack down would not work in the West and China knew this and took advantage of it. The CCP tried to suppress any information about the virus by threaten and locking up anyone who talked about it. Russia might've been given a heads up too due to their incredibly quick response in closing the border, second behind mongolia I believe. Currently 438/1 case/death rate from a 150mil population, pretty good. 

The virus is now crippling the world economy, including China's, however China doesn't play by the rules so I think they'll artificially recover and continue to cook the books. I'm unsure of the long game here but this may very well be our Franz Fredinand moment. Are we seeing the beginning of the WW3? 

[haz]

49 minutes ago, HeartFc said:

@playmaker Ok I've got an angle for you. This is a Chinese bio-weapon in response to losing the trade war against Trump. The Chinese economy was on the brink of collapse, American economy some what recovering, CCP did not what that on their record. Wuhan of course being the perfect place due to the "hidden in plain sight" of their top virology lab. Once  exposed as a man made virus they can say it "escaped" their "research site" in Wuhan by "mistake", oops. It was spread world wide and quickly controlled locally due to their cultural expectance of draconian government control. That and the obvious advantage of having a vaccine. This type of crack down would not work in the West and China knew this and took advantage of it. The CCP tried to suppress any information about the virus by threaten and locking up anyone who talked about it. Russia might've been given a heads up too due to their incredibly quick response in closing the border, second behind mongolia I believe. Currently 438/1 case/death rate from a 150mil population, pretty good. 

The virus is now crippling the world economy, including China's, however China doesn't play by the rules so I think they'll artificially recover and continue to cook the books. I'm unsure of the long game here but this may very well be our Franz Fredinand moment. Are we seeing the beginning of the WW3? 

Don't tempt him. Pls

[Shahanga]

We have one of the lowest death to recovery rates going around and the percentage critical is very low. 
Just need to reduce how quickly the Mother Fucker is spreading so the health system can keep copeing. Try to do that and still have something left of the country afterwards. 

PS I’ve figured why it’s such a killer of the elderly- they get pneumonia.

[Nate]

3 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

We have one of the lowest death to recovery rates going around and the percentage critical is very low. 
Just need to reduce how quickly the Mother Fucker is spreading so the health system can keep copeing. Try to do that and still have something left of the country afterwards. 

PS I’ve figured why it’s such a killer of the elderly- they get pneumonia.

Well many are also going to die from stubbornness/complacency, cos I saw HEAPS of oldies out and about today.

It feels like an absolute pisstake knowing that the world's been shut down for half a year, stacks of people have lost their jobs and the economy will inevitably be fucked afterwards to prevent mass deaths in this particular demographic, only for so many of them to be so irresponsibly failing to take the onus to stay at home and control the spread.

But nah let's go out, the rules don't apply to me

[jw1739]

18 minutes ago, Shahanga said:

We have one of the lowest death to recovery rates going around and the percentage critical is very low. 
Just need to reduce how quickly the Mother Fucker is spreading so the health system can keep copeing. Try to do that and still have something left of the country afterwards. 

PS I’ve figured why it’s such a killer of the elderly- they get pneumonia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/coronavirus-what-happens-to-peoples-lungs-if-they-get-covid-19

 

[haz]

6 hours ago, Shahanga said:

We have one of the lowest death to recovery rates going around and the percentage critical is very low.

Yea I was only discussing this with my parents last night, it's an interesting observation.

I can only think of three reasons

(1) Data in Australia hasn't reached the 'critical' two week period when death/hospitalisation occurs.

(2) The virus has mutated overseas to become more deadly, while Australia 'luckily' has a less fatal strain.

(3) Being an island nation with a very spread population, in addition to having a culture of less kissing/touching compared to Europe we see less elderly getting sick.

 

[NewConvert]

1 hour ago, haz said:

Yea I was only discussing this with my parents last night, it's an interesting observation.

I can only think of three reasons

(1) Data in Australia hasn't reached the 'critical' two week period when death/hospitalisation occurs.

(2) The virus has mutated overseas to become more deadly, while Australia 'luckily' has a less fatal strain.

(3) Being an island nation with a very spread population, in addition to having a culture of less kissing/touching compared to Europe we see less elderly getting sick.

 

I would add the demographic profile as being critical as well. According to the Institute For Applied System Analysis the percentage of people over the age of 65 has Japan at 26% followed by Italy on 22.4% and Germany on 21.1%. The World Bank has Australia/NZ/USA on 16% and the UK on 18%. South Korea is on 14%. Interestingly, 9 out of the top 10 countries for people over 65 are in Europe - Japan being the only one outside the group.

Given that we now know that COVID-19 is a type of pneumonia this means that the older you are, no matter how fit, the harder it hits and the greater the mortality rate.

Your argument that culture wise we are not as touchy feely as other cultures has a lot of merit. Given that Japan was one of the early countries exposed to the virus they should be on par with Italy but because Japanese culture is the opposite of touchy feely they have been able to control it better. South Korea has similar cultural traits to Japan but with the added advantage that they don't have as many people over 65.

The other factor in the controlling the virus is that the public health system is better for the countries above with the exception of the USA.

[jw1739]

To assess what's really going on we need far more information. For example, the number of "cases" needs to be expressed as an absolute number (as at present) but also as a % of the number of tests actually carried out, and as a % of the population.Also the number of "recoveries" needs to be stated. It's also pretty misleading to attribute a death to (for example) NSW when the person has just come off an infected cruise ship. Further we should be told where these "cases" actually are - are they localised in "hot spots" or randomly distributed across all suburbs and postcodes.

I'm in no way trying to show that this is not a deadly serious situation, but IMO more actual facts need to be made available.

 

[haz]

37 minutes ago, jw1739 said:

To assess what's really going on we need far more information. For example, the number of "cases" needs to be expressed as an absolute number (as at present) but also as a % of the number of tests actually carried out, and as a % of the population.Also the number of "recoveries" needs to be stated. It's also pretty misleading to attribute a death to (for example) NSW when the person has just come off an infected cruise ship. Further we should be told where these "cases" actually are - are they localised in "hot spots" or randomly distributed across all suburbs and postcodes.

I'm in no way trying to show that this is not a deadly serious situation, but IMO more actual facts need to be made available.

 

I use this site which shows some of that data. Interestingtto note how few serious cases Australia has

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I haven't found any sites which go deeper than state level for number of cases

[thisphantomfortress]

7 hours ago, haz said:

I use this site which shows some of that data. Interestingtto note how few serious cases Australia has

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I haven't found any sites which go deeper than state level for number of cases

I've been using this site.best I can get, few good counters on YouTube too